International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference – Lisbon November 2004

1. International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference – Lisbon November 2004 Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and Deaths

2. Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and Deaths The Research Study was commissioned by Transport Canada. Its objective was to determine any trends that might exist in occupant survival in passenger aircraft accidents. Over the past thirty years improvements have been made to many occupant survival factors, however little is known as to the real effect that these improvements have made to the survivability of occupants.

3. Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and Deaths i) An assessment of the trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate. ii) An assessment of the trend based on those fatal accidents that have been caused by aircraft fires. iii) An assessment of the trend in the proportion of fire fatalities occurring in aircraft accidents as a function of total number of occupant fatalities. Three separate studies were carried out on western world turbojet aircraft as follows:

4. Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and Deaths Accidents were studied that satisfied the following criteria: • The accident occurred to a Western World Turbojet aircraft • The accident resulted in at least one fatality iii) The aircraft was operating in the Passenger or Passenger/Cargo role with passengers on-board

5. Trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate So what is the trend in total accident rate?

6. Trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate

7. YEAR 1967 YEAR 2002 Civil Transport Aircraft Fatal Accident Rate – Turbo Jet All Causes 2 x 10-6 1 x 10-6 5 x 10-7 0

8. 2 x 10-6 YEAR 1967 1 x 10-6 YEAR 2002 5 x 10-7 Civil Transport Aircraft Fatal Accident Rate – Turbo Jet All Causes 0

9. Trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate

10. Trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate Another way of presenting the data is to use the Duane Growth Model

11. Actual and Predicted Number of Accidents to Western World Turbojets

12. Actual and Predicted Number of Accidents to Western World Turbojets

13. Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents

14. YEAR 2000 YEAR 1967 Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents

15. Trends In Fire Fatalities An assessment of the proportion of fatalities attributable to fire in accidents to western built aircraft over the period 1967 to 2000 inclusive

16. Trends In Fire Fatalities • 131 Accidents were studied and an assessment made of the number of fatalities attributable to fire. • Where a precise determination could not be made of the number of fatalities attributable to the fire the maximum and minimum number possible was recorded.

17. Sample Data Trends In Fire Fatalities

18. Trends In Fire Fatalities

19. Trends In Fire Fatalities

20. Conclusions The Duane Growth Model seems to represent the improvement in fatal accident rate to western world turbojets for All fatal accidents & Fatal accidents attributable to fire

21. However, trends in fire fatalities could be predicted with greater accuracy by the acquisition of more accident data. Conclusions There appears to be a continuous downward trend in the total Fatal Accident Rate and the accident rate attributable to fire, for western built turbojet aircraft, over the period 1967 to 2000.

22. However, trends in fire fatalities could be predicted with greater accuracy by the acquisition of more accident data. Conclusions • The proportion of fatalities attributable to fire appears to demonstrate a continuous downward trend over the period 1967 to 2000. • However, further data are required to confirm this conclusion.