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US CO 2 emissions from transportation vs. total (in MMT) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


US CO 2 emissions from transportation vs. total (in MMT). 32.3%. 27.6%. Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/. Source: US EPA (2003) Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends. Source: US EPA (2003) Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends.

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US CO 2 emissions from transportation vs. total (in MMT)

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US CO2 emissions from transportation vs. total (in MMT)

32.3%

27.6%

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/


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Source: US EPA (2003) Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends


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Source: US EPA (2003) Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends


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Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends

Source: US EPA (2003) Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends


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Pressure to reduce GHG emissions from vehicles is increasing:

  • European Union

  • Goal: Average of 120 g CO2 per km driven for passenger cars by 2015

  • 1999/2000:Voluntary agreements with car manufacturers

  • 2007/2008 :Conversion into binding regulation

  • California - Assembly Bill 1493

  • Goal: Average of 127 g CO2eq per km driven for passenger cars by 2016

  • 2002: AB 1493 passes Assembly and Senate

  • 2004: AB 1493is approved by Governor

  • New York State

  • 2005: Official proposal to adopt California’s regulation

  • Canada

  • 2005 Voluntary agreements with car manufacturers

Agreements / regulations do not use a full life cycle perspective


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Typical life cycle GHG emissions of a passenger car: increasing:

Total:

Compact~ 50 tonnes of CO2 eq

Midsize ~ 60-70 tonnes of CO2 eq

SUV~ 80+ tonnes of CO2 eq

5-15 %

4-5 %

80-90 %

0-1 %

Vehicle GHG reduction strategies focus on the use phase


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There are many ways to reduce use phase GHG emissions of vehicles:

  • Power train modifications: HEV, FCV, BEV

  • Engine modifications: Variable valve timing and lift, cylinder shut-off

  • Fuel combustion modifications: Turbocharger, CVR, direct injection

  • Transmission modifications: Continuously variable transmission, shifting schedules

  • Alternative fuels: Biodiesel, ethanol, hydrogen

  • Reduction of aerodynamic drag: Body shape

  • Reduction ofrolling resistance: Tires

  • Vehicle mass reduction: Smaller vehicles, better packaging, light-weight materials


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Life cycle GHG emissions: ICEV versus HEV vehicles:

Average lifecycle GHG (in kg CO2eq) emissions of a Civic Hybrid (HEV) and a Civic LX (ICEV)

Source: Bren Group Project on HEV (Class of 2005)

(Average for manual and automatic transmission)


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Energy efficiencies of ICEV, HEV, BEV, FCV vehicles:

Internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) :

Fuel productionand delivery

ICE,

powertrain friction

0.88 x 0.16 = 0.14

Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV):

Fuel productionand delivery

Electric motor, ICE, battery

powertrain friction

0.88 x 0.32 = 0.28

Battery electric vehicle (BEV):

Power plant

Electricity

transmission

Battery

Electric motor,

powertrain friction

0.35 – 0.55 x 0.93 x 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.2 – 0.33

Fuel cell vehicle (FCV):

Compression,

transmission

Fuel cell

Electric motor,

powertrain friction

Reformation

0.8 x 0.75 x 0.5 x 0.8 = 0.24


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Use the PV method to answer the following question: vehicles:

After how many years of driving is the price premium of a hybrid vehicle recovered?

  • Compare the Toyota Camry Hybrid with a conventional Camry

  • Compare the Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid with a conventional Tahoe

  • Use the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP)

  • Use the new EPA combined MPG rating

  • Use 2009 model specifications (make sure models are equivalent)

  • Use fuel prices of $2.50 per gallon

  • Assume 15,000 miles driven per year

  • Assume a 5% discount rate


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Larrick R P, Soll J B (2008) The MPG Illusion, Science, Vol. 320, 20 June 2008

Purchase of a HEV instead of an ICEV

1

months

Monthly fuel cost savings (MS)

Price premium (PP)

Example:


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Purchase of a PV system 320, 20 June 2008

Loan to pay for

PV system

Example – Electricity from utility:

Household consumption: 25 kWh / day (750 kWh / 30 days)

Cost of electricity: 0.17 cents / kWh ($ 127.50 / 30 days)

Monthly electricity cost savings

months

Monthly loan payments

Example – PV system that generates 25 kWh / day

Installation cost: $25,000

Lifetime: 25 years

Financing: $25,000 loan, over 25 years, 5% fixed rate

Monthly loan payments: ???

Installation cost of

PV system


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Annuity Factor AF 320, 20 June 2008

Cash flow structure of an annuity:

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

1

i

years


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Annuity Factor AF, continued 320, 20 June 2008

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

1

i

years


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Purchase of a PV system 320, 20 June 2008

Loan to pay for

PV system

Monthly electricity cost savings $127.50

months

Monthly loan payments

Installation cost of

PV system


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Citizenr 320, 20 June 2008 ē REnU Business Model

Citizenrē plans, installs, maintains, and owns the PV system on your roof.

All you have to pay is a fixed monthly rental fee.

Expected average monthly electricity cost savings $127.50

months

Fixed monthly rental fee $127.50

How can they do this?


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Citizenr 320, 20 June 2008 ē REnU Business Model

Disclaimer: The numbers below are guesstimates and for teaching purposes only

Example – PV system that generates 25 kWh / day

Installation cost for Citizenrē: $20,000 (Citizenrē is vertically integrated)

Lifetime: 25 years

Financing: Assume average cost of capital for Citizenrē of 3%

Monthly income: $127.50

Expected average monthly administration and maintenance cost: $15

Monthly capital expenses:

Expected average monthly pretax operating profit per system: $ 17.66

For 34,791 systems: $ 614,409 per month


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