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Travel and Tourism. F. X. Murray Overview of the Travel and Tourism Industry, its importance to the global economy and the significance of civil aviation to that industry. Travel & Tourism Data 1999 and 2010. High Lights Global Data U. S. Data. Travel & Tourism Data

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Travel and Tourism

F. X. Murray

Overview of the Travel and Tourism Industry, its importance to the global economy and the significance of civil aviation to that industry.


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Travel & Tourism Data1999 and 2010

  • High Lights

  • Global Data

  • U. S. Data


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Travel & Tourism Data

and Supporting Reports for the

NASA Aeronautics Study

Prepared by SAIC


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Critique & Technical Discussion of T & T Data

  • 1993 Data

  • Criticisms

  • Revisions

  • Recent Data System

  • Cautions


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Comparing 1994 & 1999

  • No adequate Documentation or Definitions for 1994 Data

  • Terms not Comparable

  • Estimating Techniques Different


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World Travel & Tourism Council

First Estimate of T & T Industry Economic Data--1993

Forecasts for 1994 and 2001

Immediate Objectives

Support “Free Trade in the Air”

Emphasis on Air transport

Show significance of the T & T Industry

T & T DATA HISTORY


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Industry Generated Data

Lacked Documentation & Methodology

Not Comparable with Existing Economic Databases

Viewed by Others as Self-serving

Criticisms of T & T Data


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Recommendations of Professionals

  • Rigorous Methodology

  • Definitions and Documentation

  • Links to Existing Official Economic Data Bases

  • Credible Data Collection Entities


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Resulting Data System

  • Mostother OECD Countries Now Provide Compatible Data

  • UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs

    • Collects Data from Most Countries

    • Uses Methodology & DefinitionsCompatible with OECD Countries


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Data for the U. S.

  • 1995 Whitehouse Conference BEA to Develop Data System

  • Travel & Tourism Satellite Account Completed 1998

  • Methodology and Definitions Rigorously Documented

  • Integrated into the U. S. Input and Output Accounts

  • I-O Factors among Industry Groups Developed


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  • United Nations Data Collection

  • • UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs (Information Office) and UN TourismOrganization

    • • Now Collecting Data from Most Countries

    • •Uses Methodology & Definitions Compatible with OECD Countries


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Limitations of T & T SA

  • U. S. Data Based on 1992 Business Census

  • Assumption--1992 relationships (Input-Output) hold until next Census

  • I-O Factors revised after 1998 Business Census (Revisions Due Late 1999/Early 2000)


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World Travel & Tourism Council

  • 1999 Forecast Of T & T Economic Impact Derived from 1998 Data

  • Projection for 2010 is Included

  • Global and Regional Forecasts for 1999 and Projections for 2010

  • General Agreement on Methodology & Terms


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Limitations on Newly Released Forecasts & Projections

  • All OECD Countries Now Report

  • No Data from Many Smaller Countries

  • Regional Samples Used for Some (Latin America, Eastern Europe)

    • E.g., Argentina and Brazil Used to Estimate Latin America

  • Assumed Growth Rates to 2010


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Travel & TourismHigh Lights for 1999

  • Travel & Tourism Impact Direct and Indirect upon the Global Economy

    • 11% of GDP

    • 200 Million Jobs

    • 8% of Total Employment

    • 5.5 Million New Jobs per year until 2010


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U. S. Highlights

  • Data used in WTTC Data System

  • Importance of US in T & T Industry

  • Employment

  • Capital Investment

  • Government Spending

    • Federal Agencies

    • State & Local


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Key Points from Global Projection For 2010 For Travel & Tourism

  • Real Growth 3.3% per year Through 2010

    • Economy GDP will be 11% of Global GDP

    • Employment will be 9%

    • Tax Revenues at 11.7% of Total


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T & T Forecast for 2010 Tourism Investment

  • Government Expenditures to Support T & T Increase at a higher rate than in T & T

  • Global Capital Investment

    • $733 B in 1999 and projected to be $1.5 Trillion by 2010.

  • T & T Capital Investment Grows Faster than Global Investment


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United States Data for T & T Tourism

  • Up to 25% of All Direct T & T Expenditures for Airfares

    • Largest Single Item

  • T & T GDP $1,067 Billion in 1999

    • Japan next highest at $389 B.

  • T & T GDP Projected at $1.8 Trillion by 2010


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U. S. Employment & Government Spending Tourism

  • T & T Economy accounts for 17.5 Million U.S. jobs in 1999 (13.2%)

  • 20.2 Million U.S. Jobs Expected in 2010 (13.5%)

  • Governments spent $52.2 Billion for T & T 1999

  • By 2010 Projected to reach $85 Billion


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Analytical Tools: TourismDirect Economic Factors

  • Economic Factors for US Transportation Direct Impact per $ of Air Transport $ 1.00

    • Primary Ind. (mfg) = .14

    • Other Transport = .15

    • Services, Misc. = .26

    • Value Added = .45

    • Primary Industries include Agri., mining, constr., & mfg.; Other Transportation includes pipelines & own transport; Services include finance, insurance, communications, Utilities & Gov’t.


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Direct & Indirect Economic Factors Tourism

  • Factors for US Air Transportation Direct & Indirect Requirements:

  • Per $ of Air Transportation Service

    • Primary Ind. (mfg) = .35

    • Transportation = 1.17

    • Services = .47

    • Total = 1.99

  • The Direct Impact is .99 or approx. $1 to $1: Indirect to Direct


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Travel & Tourism Factors Tourism

  • Direct Products & Services Required per $1 expended for Travel & Tourism in the U. S.

  • Air fares .25

  • Lodging .16

  • Meals, etc .14

  • Shopping .12

  • All Other .34

  • Total $1.00


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Cautionary Notes Tourism

  • Definitions for T & T Economic Measures are cumbersome and difficult to master, e.g.

    • 1999 the “T & T Industry GDP” is $1,328 Billion,

    • BUT… “T & T Economy GDP” is $3,549,

    • AND… “T & T Demand” is $4,475 Billion


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Travel & Tourism Industry GDP (Supply) Tourism

  • Includes Direct Value Added Associated with T & T Consumption

    • Consumer expenditures (durables, nondurables & services)

    • Travel and Tourism Business Sales (private & public)

    • Travel and Tourism government expenditures

    • Travel and Tourism Foreign Trade (visitor exports)


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Travel & Tourism TourismEconomy GDP

  • Direct and IndirectValue Added including

    • T & T Consumption

    • T & T Capital Investment (Public and Private)

    • Government Expenditures

    • T & T foreign Trade


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Travel and Tourism Demand Includes Tourism

  • Personal Consumption (Durables, Non-durables, Services)

    • Business Travel (Corporate & Government)

    • Visitor Exports Government Expenditures

    • Capital Investment

    • Non-visitor Exports (World Tourism)


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Industry Perspective of the T & T Satellite Account Tourism

  • Captures all economic activity related to persons traveling to and staying in places outside their usual environment.

  • For purposes of Satellite Accounting the optimal aggregated measurement is best determined from the demand point of view

  • Industry prefers the T & T Demand measure (largest measure of activity)


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Gross Domestic Product for T & T Tourism

  • GDP of Tourism Industries (Direct and Indirect GDP for Tourism Consumption)

  • Imports by Tourist Industries

  • Employment by Tourist Industries


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