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Great Lakes Ice Model (GLIM): Developing Great Lakes Ice Model (GLIM) in Lake Erie using the CIOM (Coupled Ice-Ocean Model) . Jia Wang (NOAA GLERL) George Leshkevich, David Schwab, Ann Clites ( NOAA GLERL ) Haoguo Hu, Dima Beletsky ( CILER, UoMich ),

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Great Lakes Ice Model (GLIM):Developing Great Lakes Ice Model (GLIM) in Lake Erie using the CIOM (Coupled Ice-Ocean Model)

Jia Wang (NOAA GLERL)

George Leshkevich, David Schwab,

Ann Clites (NOAA GLERL)

Haoguo Hu, Dima Beletsky

(CILER, UoMich),

Sponsors: NOAA, GLERL with help of USCG


Motivation needs for p rediction of lake ice using numerical models l.jpg
MotivationNeeds for prediction of lake ice using numerical models

  • No a single climate pattern (PNA, NAO/AO) influencing the GL is dominating, so the predictability of sea ice based on climate pattern indices is poor (Assel and Rodionov 2001, 2002)

  • Sediment resuspension and transport during winter storm and lake ice season (Schwab et al. 2006, Hawley et al. 2006); Lake Circulation Studies and the Great Lakes Coastal Forecast System (GLCFS) (Schwab)

    —Need lake ice coupled to an hydrodynamic-sediment model

  • Biogeochemical/ecosystems modeling such as hypoxia—Multiple stressors (Chen et al. 2004)

    —Need hydrodynamic-ice circulation model

  • Regional climate model in the Great Lakes (Lofgren 2005)

    —Need lake ice model to predict radiation/nergy balance/feedback to the atmosphere, and lake water level (Assel, Quinn&Sellinger 2004)

  • Great Lakes as a platform for INTERDISCIPLINARY research in a “mini climate system”:

    Atmosphere, hydrosphere (hydrodynamics, lake ice, biosphere, and lithosphere (land processes, hydrology, coastal erosion)

    —Need lake ice component


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Natural Climate Teleconnection PatternsSea/lake ice as indicator of climate changes: NAO/AO, ENSO/ PNA/PDO? Which is statistically significant?

Hudson Bay:

Wang et al. (1994a,b; 1995)—ENSO and NAO: 1953-91

Mysak et al (1996)—NAO&ENSO:72/73; 82/83; 91/92

Arctic Ocean:

Wang and Ikeda (2000)—AO&ASIO

Wang and Ikeda (2001) —Regional and seasonal persp.

Wang et al. (2005) —Arctic climate feedback loop

Great Lakes:

Assel (1998)—ENSO

Assel et al. (2003)—Recent trends

Rodionov and Assel (2003)—Winter severity


Great lakes ice cover during two extreme climate patterns l.jpg
Great Lakes Ice Cover during two extreme climate patterns

March 15, 1992: NAO+& SO- (El Nino) March 15, 2001: NAO-&SO+ (La Nino)

PNA+ PNA-


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There were 13 winters with anomalous high ice cover( > mean+0.7*STD=69.4)

19631967 19721977197819791981 19821985 1986 19941996 2003

(blue are –AO yrs)

And also 13 winters with anomalous low Ice Cover (< mean-0.7*STD=40.01)

1964 1966 196919761983 1987 1995 19981999 2000 2001 2002 2006

(Yellow are El Nino yrs)

We found -AO signal in the high ice cover winters and El Nino signal in the low ice cover winters



Glim in lake erie based on ciom wang et al 2002 05 08 l.jpg
GLIM in Lake Eriebased on CIOM (Wang et al. 2002, 05, 08)

1. POM (Mellor 2000)

2. Multicategory sea ice model (Yao et al., 2000; Wang et al. 2002, 2005, 2008) based on: two-layer ice thermodynamics with 1-layer snow, ice dynamics with viscous-plastic rheology

3. 2-km in Lake Erie similar to Schwab’s GLOFS

4. 22 vertical sigma layers.

5. Daily atmospheric forcing from NCEP/NCAR daily forcing fields (air temperature and humidity at 2m, wind at 10m),solar radiation and air longwave radiation

6. Initial (T/S) fields from measurements



The great lakes ice model glim ice velocity and thickness l.jpg
The Great Lakes Ice Model (GLIM):Ice velocity and thickness



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a) 1/9

b) 1/16

c) 1/23

d) 1/30

e) 2/27

f) 3/12

Fig. 6


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2008 Feb-27 GLERL-USCG Ice Thickness Measurement Stations

0cm

0 cm

0cm

10 cm

0cm

25cm

15cm

20cm

15 cm

25cm

18cm

20 cm

9cm






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a-2) 12/22

a-1) 12/31

a) 1/9

b) 1/16

c) 1/23

d) 1/30

e) 2/27

f) 3/12

g) 3/28

h) 4/6

Fig. 7


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Model-data comparison

Stations 45005, 45132, and 45142 are shown on the map, but not in the table.

These are meteorological stations maintained by either the National Bata Buoy

Center (45005) or by Environment Canada (45132 and 45142). (

+ NDBC Eastern Great Lakes Marine Data web page)




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GLIM model simulation

From Dima Beletsky


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Toward A Forecast System

Hourly forcing in 2004/05





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Summary velocity

  • Lake ice seasonal cycles are successfully reproduced, but needs for solid validation of GLIM, plan for 2004-05 ice season (IFYLE obs.), and 2007-08 season (ice thickness obs.) using hourly atmospheric forcing

  • Model-model intercomparison shows GLIM lake-hydrodynamic model can reproduce similar results to the GLOFS

    Future efforts:

  • Transformed GLIM to GLERL (Schwab) GLOFS

  • Expanded to other Lakes

  • Applied to Interannual variability of lake ice in Lake Erie

  • Applied to ecosystem modeling


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