trends and insights from grain based categories
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Trends and Insights From Grain Based Categories

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 34

Trends and Insights - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 374 Views
  • Uploaded on

Trends and Insights From Grain Based Categories. Bill Goergen ACNielsen. A Brief Word from our Sponsor…. A VNU Company… Active in over 100 countries around the world tracking sales in retail outlets measuring purchases in households

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Trends and Insights ' - Pat_Xavi


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
a brief word from our sponsor
A Brief Word from our Sponsor…
  • A VNU Company…
      • Active in over 100 countries around the world
        • tracking sales in retail outlets
        • measuring purchases in households
        • (online) consumer surveys, interviews, focus groups
      • VNU Advisory Services
        • integrate information from multiple sources
        • transform raw data into strategic insights and tailor-made recommendations
        • advise on winning business decisions for complexsales and marketing issues
what are we going to look at today
What are we going to look at today?
  • Consumer Sales Trends of a variety of grain based categories
  • Focus on Bread, Cereal, Pasta, and Rice
  • Regular vs Whole Grain Trends
  • Consumer take away and purchase dynamics
  • Summary and Conclusions
today s presentation
Today’s Presentation
  • Covers Fixed Weight products, with a UPC Code
    • Fresh Bakery Products not included
    • Any Product that does not have a UPC
  • Does not cover fresh or random weight items
  • Generally, from the Grocery Channel (Outlets noted on each slide)
    • Wal-Mart is not included
fun facts to know and tell
Fun Facts to Know and Tell
  • Low Carb diets first appeared in the 19th Century
  • Robert Atkins published his first diet book in 1972
  • Through the first 6 months of 2004, 994 new low carb products have been launched
  • Low Carb industry sales will top $25 Billion in 2004
a few thoughts for consideration
A few thoughts for consideration..
  • Can we separate trends within “Grains” from trends impacted by “Low Carb”?
    • Yes, but…
  • Many factors impact Category Trends
    • Pricing
    • Promotion
    • New Product Innovations
    • Demographic Trends
    • Consumer & Historical trends
    • Etc…
high carb categories have clearly had recent declines in categories sales

Unit Pct Chg vs YAG

52 weeks ending 04/21/01

52 weeks ending 04/20/02

52 weeks ending 04/19/03

Latest 26 weeks thru 01/24/04

TOTAL US - FDM

TOTAL CEREAL

(-2.4)

(-1.5)

(-0.9)

(-5.0)

TOTAL BREAD & BAKED GOODS

(-0.2)

0.3

(-0.1)

(-2.9)

TOTAL PASTA

(-1.3)

0.6

(-1.0)

(-5.5)

DEHYDRATED POTATOES

(-2.6)

4.1

2.2

(-8.6)

SW. POTATOES & YAMS - CANNED

(-2.5)

(-7.8)

(-4.3)

1.7

POTATO - FROZEN

1.5

0.5

(-1.8)

(-4.1)

TOTAL PIZZA/SNACKS - FROZEN

4.6

4.9

(-0.5)

2.1

SALAD DRESSING - REDUCED/LOW CAL

(-5.5)

(-4.5)

(-3.2)

(-4.7)

TOTAL CRACKERS

2.1

(-1.4)

0.3

(-3.0)

TOTAL JUICES DRINKS - SHELF STBL

(-1.5)

1.2

1.6

0.8

TOTAL PREPARED FOODS - DRY MIXES

1.5

(-0.4)

(-2.1)

(-4.7)

ORANGE JUICE - REFRIGERATED

4.6

(-1.7)

0.3

(-2.9)

High Carb Categories have clearly had recent declines in Categories Sales
  • This includes Grain Based categories as well.
  • Some categories, like Cereal, may have been impacted but have been declining for years.

Source: ACNielsen Strategic Planner – FDM (Food, Drug and Mass Combined xWal-Mart)

declines in grain based categories accelerated after the death of mr atkins
Declines in Grain Based Categories accelerated after the death of Mr. Atkins

Post April ‘03

Pre April ‘03

Current Trend

RTE Cereal

Pasta

Rice

Fresh Bread

52 WK 4/12/03

52 WK 4/10/04

18 WK 8/7/04

Source: Strategic Planner

slide10

Fresh Bread Sales declined dramatically beginning in the Spring of 2003

Total US FDM X WMRolling 4 wk % Chg vs YA

slide11

Total Bread

On a long term basis, we do not see signs of recovery in Total Bread SalesTotal US Food/Drug/Mass Ex Wal MartEq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis

slide13

Total Bread

…Whole Wheat Bread continues to grow on a consistent basisTotal US Food/Drug/Mass Ex Wal Mart - Eq Vol Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
flavor buyers

Total Bread

Segments

-1.7

-0.9

-0.2

+0.4

+2.9

-0.7

+0.0

-0.9

Flavor Buyers
  • More Households purchase non-white Bread than White Bread
  • Wheat penetration gains were greater than White bread losses

Household Penetration

Pt. Chg

52 weeks April 24, 2004

quarterly penetration

Total Bread

Quarterly Penetration
  • Total Fresh Bread is declining very slowly over time
  • # of Households buying White and Wheat bread are nearly the same – White declining and Wheat growing

Household Penetration

where did the white bread buyers go

Total Bread

Where did the White Bread Buyers Go?
  • In total, White bread declines were almost equal across three factors – but the largest percent was lost Baked good purchases
  • However volume was also shifted to other breads and other (non-bread) baked goods

Percent of Volume Loss

slide17

Total RTE Cereal

RTE Cereal Volume Trends have been in long term declineTotal US Food $2MMEq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
slide18

Total RTE Cereal

The Rate of volume decline for Ready to Eat Cereal quickened in early 2003Total US FDMRolling 4 wk % Chg vs. YA
10 year penetration trend

Total RTE Cereal

10-Year Penetration Trend
  • Like Bread, Penetration Trends on RTE Cereal have been in decline for years

% of Households Purchasing RTE Cereal

Source: Consumer*Facts 1999 - 2003

10 year buying rate trend

Total RTE Cereal

10-Year Buying Rate Trend
  • In addition to penetration declines, Buying Rate Trends for RTE Cereal have been softening for years
  • The annual decline between ’03 and ’04 is the largest in 10 years

Pounds Purchased per Household - RTE Cereal

Source: ACNielsen Homescan Consumer Panel

slide22

Total Pasta

Long Term Pasta Declines pre-date the Post Atkins accelerationTotal US Food $2MMEq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
slide23

Total Pasta

Total Whole Wheat Pasta sales, while still strong, are moderatingTotal US Food $2MMEq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
health oriented dry pasta types are driving the specialty pasta increases

Total Pasta

HEALTH CONSCIOUS

Health oriented Dry Pasta types are driving the Specialty pasta increases

-3%

+8%

-2%

Dry Pasta Dollar Shares & Change vs YAGO

Flavored -19%

Wheat +28%

Organic/Soy +52%

Filled +30%

All Other -1%

-3%

Source: ACNielsen RMS Data; Total US; 52 w/e 4/19/04 vs YAGO; $2MM+ Grocery Stores

some types of pasta appeal to different types of households
Spaghetti & other Long Pasta

Elbows

Lasagna

Hispanics

Empty Nesters

Families w/ Kids

Total Pasta

Some Types of Pasta Appeal to Different Types of Households
slide26

Do we see Recovery in

Recent Rice trends?Total US FDMRolling 4 wk % Chg vs YA

Total Rice

slide28

Total Rice

Total Brown/ Wild Rice Volume Trends are softening in recent months - in contrast to whole grain segments of Bread, Cereal, and PastaTotal US Food/Drug/Mass Ex Wal MartEq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis

slide29

Total Rice

Total Brown/ Wild Rice vs Other Total US Food/Drug/Mass Ex Wal MartEq Volume Change - Rolling 52 Week Basis
summary and conclusion
Summary and Conclusion
  • Grain trends are clearly impacted by the Low Carb trends
    • General Mills believes ~ 1%
  • Long Term trends are impacting overall category performance
    • Not just a low carb phenom
  • Whole Grain Segments are generally much stronger than white/processed
    • Good Carbs vs Bad Carbs?
    • “Net Carbs” the next Marketing Buzz?
    • An opportunity for Manufacturers?
penetration

Total Bread

Penetration
  • Over 60% of Low Carb Diet households still purchase White
    • They are no less likely to purchase Bread than other households, but fewer purchase White and more purchase Wheat
  • Wheat is increasing and White declining over all households

Percent of Households Purchasing

Point Change:

-0.1

+0.3

-0.2

-2.2

-3.4

-2.0

+3.0

+2.8

+5.6

6 months 11/03 Vs 11/02

ad