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THE SOUTHERN CONE Dreams, Realities and Prospects May 2005. JUST IMAGINE TIME Magazine, May 4, 2015.

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THE SOUTHERN CONE

Dreams, Realities and Prospects

May 2005


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JUST IMAGINE

TIME Magazine, May 4, 2015

  • “The 2007 crisis was the straw that broke the camel’s back, leading to the breakup and ultimate demise of the Peronists as a dominant political force in Argentina. The reformist government elected in 2008 quickly implemented an ambitious program of free market reforms, closely modelled on Chile’s. ‘You cannot ignore success forever’, declared President Agostini at the time. Argentina reduced tariffs to 10% across the board, and within 2 years signed free trade agreements with all of its neighbours, the U.S., the EU, and China.

  • The strength of the entrepreneurial dynamism unleashed by the reforms surprised all. ‘It reminds you of Italy’, says Alvaro Vargas Llosa, a respected analyst. Exports boomed, as the country joined Chile as a major offshoring center for global IT and BPO services. Burying old rivalries, the two countries discovered just how complementary they are. Growing 8-10% a year, their combined GDP should soon exceed US$1 trillion.

  • The Southern Cone is suddenly attracting students and professionals from all across the region. ‘This region is fun, sophisticated, vibrant, and safe. Nowhere else compares’, waxes lyrical Jaime Perez, a young Colombian who recently relocated from Miami.”


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SOME ROADBLOCKS

  • Argentines getting comfortable (again)

  • Peronists firmly back in power

  • Brazil set to become a regional hegemon

  • Chile: the confused geopolitician


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BRASIL: A BUDDING REGIONAL HEGEMON¿Who is it arming against?

Annual military expenditures (US$M)

% CAGR

1999-2002

1999

2000

2001

2002

8.4

(6.7)

2.8

1.6

(5.9)

na

2.6

(2.6)

(3.6)

7.210

4.100

2.070

150

1.010

270

2.820

1.580

12.000

7.640

3.740

2.150

130

1.060

na

2.840

1.390

11.310

8.900

3.770

2.180

140

900

na

3.150

1.830

11.970

9.960

2.880

2.310

160

750

na

3.130

1.410

10.640

Brasil

Argentina

Chile

Bolivia

Perú

Ecuador

Colombia

Venezuela

Other South America

  • Brasil’s objective is reported to be the development

  • of a capability for strategic attack by 2007

Sources :International Institute for Peace Studies (Sipri, Stockholm), O Estado de Sao Paulo (January 2004)


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SOME ROADBLOCKS

  • Argentines getting comfortable (again)

  • Peronists firmly back in power

  • Brazil set to become a regional hegemon

  • Chile: the confused geopolitician



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BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND PROSPECTS

Argentina

  • Pluses

  • MInuses

  • People (!)

  • Labor costs (!!)

  • Macroeconomics

  • Legacy of reforms (‘90s)

  • Offshored cash

  • Pragmatic public policies

  • Quality of life (?)

  • Political stability (?)

  • Politics for profit

  • Caught in Mercosur

  • Capital shortage

  • Fragile middle class

  • Mass of the disposessed

  • Alienated civic culture

  • Entitlement mindset

  • Natural riches (?)


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BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND PROSPECTS

Chile

  • Pluses

  • MInuses

  • Macroeconomics (!!)

  • People

  • Labor costs

  • Free market culture

  • Institutional traditions

  • Infrastructure

  • Vibrant clusters

  • Quality of life (?)

  • Small

  • Distant

  • Isolated

  • School system

  • Regional strategy

  • Whiff of corruption (?)

  • Growth model going forward (?)

  • 4th Concertación government (?)


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STAY TUNED

  • Unfortunately no real “Southern Cone” to speak of (for now)

  • Different realities and prospects

    • Chile doing fine, but…

      • extrapolating not retrapolating

      • reluctant to tackle needed reforms

      • losing relative momentum

    • Argentina recovering from a terrible crash

      • amazing resilience

      • some risk of a “dead cat bounce”

      • imagine what would it be like if well governed…

    • And yes (sorry) there is Uruguay

  • Path to progress hard to miss in today’s world

    • Need only to look around to see the best way forward

    • Still getting there will take some effort

    • Time to build a position?

      • certainly if the world is your market


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THE SOUTHERN CONE

Dreams, Realities and Prospects

May 2005



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