html5-img
1 / 26

Get Out the Vote: Campaign Strategy

Get Out the Vote: Campaign Strategy. Two more points about turnout!. What predicts variation in turnout from election to election in the US? What predicts cross-national variation in turnout?. In any given election, why might more people turn out?. High media coverage Significant office

Pat_Xavi
Download Presentation

Get Out the Vote: Campaign Strategy

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Get Out the Vote:Campaign Strategy

  2. Two more points about turnout! • What predicts variation in turnout from election to election in the US? • What predicts cross-national variation in turnout?

  3. In any given election, why might more people turn out? • High media coverage • Significant office • Important issues • Attractive candidates • Competitive race

  4. Why Americans Don’t Vote(compared to people in other democracies) • Alienation?

  5. Is trust the explanation?

  6. Responses to surveys about trust in government, voters & nonvoters

  7. Why Americans Don’t Vote • Alienation? (No) • More frequent elections

  8. Voter turnout, presidential and midterm elections 1960-1998

  9. Why Americans Don’t Vote • Alienation? (No) • More frequent elections • Registration laws

  10. How can parties, groups, and candidate campaigns encourage people to vote who might not otherwise vote?

  11. Green and Gerber • Methods? • Experimental design: random assignment • Door to door canvassing • Weekend days, 4 weeks before election • Paid canvassers, different races

  12. Green and Gerber’s methods • Random assignment experiments • CT congressional and state elections 1998 • New Jersey State Assembly Race 1999 • CT Mayoral Campaign 1999 • Multi city presidential election study 2000 • Multi city local elections 2001

  13. Green and Gerber • Methods? • Benefits of experimental design? • Controls for other individual characteristics • Can tell whether treatment itself has an effect!

  14. Green and Gerber • Methods? • Benefits of experimental design? • How did they try to motivate people?

  15. Appeals: P(V) = PB + D – C • By voting, you provide evidence that your neighborhood is politically active, which will increase its political clout.(neighborhood solidarity) • Voting is your civic duty • The election is close, and there is a chance your vote might make the difference. • There is an election coming…

  16. Green and Gerber: Findings • Nonpartisans more affected by treatment

  17. Green and Gerber’s methods

  18. Green and Gerber’s methods

  19. Green and Gerber’s methods

  20. Green and Gerber’s methods

  21. Green and Gerber • Is it an efficient way to increase turnout? $10/hour, 10 contacts an hour, 6% return $16 per new voter?

  22. Real World Implications • The Bush Campaign: Amway model • America Coming Together

  23. Republicans can do social science? • Karl Rove’s 72 hour Task Force • 2000 analysis • 2001 experiment • 2002 successes • 2004 Ohio

  24. What could you do to increase turnout? • Through public policy? • For a particular candidate?

  25. How to increase turnout • Face to face contacts • Focus on irregular voters • Make them feel their vote makes a difference (down-ballot???) • Emphasize community solidarity • Provide them with polling place information

  26. Suppressing turnout • What could you do to keep people from coming to the polls? • Public policy? • Campaign strategy?

More Related