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GEORGE BUSH: NEGLECT AND OPPORTUNITY FOR LATIN AMERICA. READING. Smith, Talons , chs. 10-12 and Conclusion . ENDING THE DECADE OF UNCERTAINTY (1990-2001). Change of administration Change of party Change of context: 9/11. PHASE 1: INITIAL ORIENTATIONS High level of presidential interest

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GEORGE BUSH: NEGLECT AND OPPORTUNITY FOR LATIN AMERICA

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GEORGE BUSH:NEGLECT AND OPPORTUNITY FOR LATIN AMERICA


READING

  • Smith, Talons, chs. 10-12 and Conclusion


ENDING THE DECADE OF UNCERTAINTY (1990-2001)

  • Change of administration

  • Change of party

  • Change of context: 9/11


PHASE 1: INITIAL ORIENTATIONS

High level of presidential interest

Relationship with Mexico

(and Vicente Fox)

Near-agreement on immigration reform

Support for FTAA

Composition of administrative team

Isolation of Cuba


  • PHASE 2: 9/11 AND THE AMERICAS

  • Change in regional priorities

  • Unilateralist impulses

  • End of wholesale immigration reform

  • Stamp-collecting

  • PHASE 3: DUAL POLICY FRAMEWORKS

  • FTAs with Chile, CAFTA, Peru, Colombia

  • Steel tariffs and farm bill

  • Dualism: Domestic politics and war on terrorism


UNLEASHING WAR:CHRONOLOGY

  • September 11, 2001: attacks on U.S.

  • September 20, 2001: Bush speech

  • October 7, 2001: bombardments in Afghanistan

  • March 2003: invasion of Iraq


WAR ON TERROR:THE RULES OF THE GAME

  • Nations can respond however they choose—including the use of indiscriminate force.

  • Preventive action is appropriate and acceptable.

  • There is no need to adhere to international treaties or conventions.

  • Alliances are formed around one central issue—the anti-terror campaign. Democracy and human rights are secondary issues.

  • Spectator nations must tread cautiously.


U.S. LOSS OF “SOFT POWER”


U.S. PRESTIGE IN LATIN AMERICA


CHANGING VIEWS OF U.S. IN LATIN AMERICA

  • Distaste for Abu Ghraib, Haditha, “collateral damage” and loss of life

  • Solidarity with innocent civilians, hidden admiration for Osama bin Laden

  • Rejection of American society, not just U.S. foreign policy

  • Resentment of Bush unilateral approach

  • Distrust of democratic crusade


  • DUAL POLICY FRAMEWORKS:

  • CRISIS MANAGEMENT (SIC)

  • Argentina (December 2001)

  • Venezuela (April 2002)

  • Bolivia (October 2003)

  • Haiti (February-March 2004)


  • THE PATTERN

  • Insufficient attention

  • Blame incumbents for their problems, especially

  • if unpopular within Bush circles

  • No preventive action

  • Deny involvement

  • Recognize successor

  • Result: What about democracy?


MARCH 2007

  • Week-long presidential trip

  • Friendly locations: Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Guatemala, Mexico

  • Goals: reassert American hegemony, proclaim concern for “social justice,” counter influence of opponents

  • Sidebar: ethanol agreement with Brazil

  • General view: “too little, too late”


GWB and Latin America: Historical and Comparative Perspective

_________Latin America as Priority___________

______ Low _______ _______ High _____

Operational

Mode for U.S. ____

Unilateral Ad hoc Systematic

imposition intervention

(Bush 2001-04) (Reagan 1981-89)

________________________ __________________

Intermittent, Consistent,

Multilateral low-level high-level

diplomacy engagement

(Clinton 1993-2000) (Kennedy 1961-63)

____________________________________________________________


WHAT COULD LATIN AMERICA DO?


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