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Community Colleges: Preparing America’s Workforce in the 21 st Century. Presented by: Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon Chancellor, Dallas County Community College District . What’s Changing?. Demographics Nature of work Workplace Worker.

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Community colleges preparing america s workforce in the 21 st century l.jpg
Community Colleges: Preparing America’s Workforce in the 21st Century

Presented by:

Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon

Chancellor,

Dallas County Community College District


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What’s Changing?

  • Demographics

  • Nature of work

  • Workplace

  • Worker


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Future Work

  • By 2005, almost half of all workers will be employed in industries that produce or are intensive users of information technology.

Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor


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Future Work (cont.)

  • Baby boomers make up almost half (47%) of the workforce today.

  • Young women are enrolling in college at a higher rate (70%) than young men (64%).

Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor


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Future Work (cont.)

  • Small businesses employ about half of the nation's private sector workforce.

Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor


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Future Work (cont.)

  • With more than 1600 corporate training institutions already established, “Corporate Universities” could surpass traditional universities, in number, by 2010.

Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor


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75 Million Baby Boomers!(Born 1946 – 1965)


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U.S. Population Projections

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


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U.S. Population Projections

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


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Mean

Median

Projected U.S. Population - Age

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


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Geographic DistributionPersons 65+

52% live in nine states:

  • California 3.6 million

  • Florida 2.8 million

  • New York 2.4 million

  • Texas 2.1 million

  • Pennsylvania 1.9 million

  • Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey

    each with over 1 million.

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census


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Geographic DistributionPersons 65+ (cont.)

  • Metropolitan areas 77.5%

  • Suburbs 50.0%

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau


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Regional Changes – 2025 Total Population

South and West will comprise majority of growth

  • Northeast 17.1%

  • Midwest 20.7%

  • West 26%

  • South 36.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


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% Change from 2001

Projected U.S. Population by Ethnicity

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


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% Change Ethnic Groups to 2025

  • Caucasian – Slowest Growing, still largest

  • Hispanic – 2nd Fastest Growing, Southwest

  • Black – 2nd Slowest Growing, all regions

  • Asian – Fastest Growing, all regions

  • American Indian – 3rd fastest growing

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


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The Pipeline Challenge

“America will face a social and economic crisis unless it succeeds in promoting and taking advantage of racial and ethnic diversity.”

Business – Higher Education Forum - “Investing in People: Developing All of America’s Talent on Campus and in the Workplace.”


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Employment Trends

  • 1990-2000 = +17%

  • 2000-2010 = +15%

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Growth in Civilian Workforce:


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Observations

  • Largest shift will be decrease of “prime-age” (25-54) workers in the labor force.

  • Over 60% of workers do not have children at home but care for elderly family members.

  • Shift from defined-benefit to defined- contribution pensions has unknown impact.

  • Various organizational responses to technology impact productivity.

    Source: The Urban Institute


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MoreObservations

  • During 1992-99 expansion, college-educated workers accounted for 90% of growth.

  • Globalization of production has weakened the position of U.S. workers.

  • Although 1992-99 expansion increased job opportunities, many less educated workers have not reentered the job market.

    Source: The Urban Institute


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More Observations (cont.)

In the next 20 years . . .

  • The civilian labor force will see a major change in age cohorts.

  • Men 16 and over will continue to decline in numbers and percentage.

  • Minorities and women will continue to increase dramatically in the civilian workforce.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


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Projected U.S. Workforce

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


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Occupations by Replacement NeedCreated by Retirees 1998–2008

(in thousands)

Total, all employees 22,205

Secretaries ......................................................…. 519

Truck drivers, heavy ......................................….. 425

Teachers, elementary school .........................….. 418

Janitors and cleaners ..................................…….. 408

Teachers, secondary school ..........................…….378

Registered nurses ......................................……... 331

Bookkeepers, accounting and auditing clerks …. 330

Teachers, college and university .................….... 195

Source: Monthly Labor Review


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Replacements Needed for Retirees (cont.)

Administrators, education and related fields ….. 178

Farmers, except horticultural ........................….. 175

Supervisors, construction occupations ..........….. 165

Administrators and officials,................................ 143

Real estate sales occupations .....................…….. 144

Insurance sales occupations .......................…….. 135

Industrial machinery repairers .......................….. 125

Maids and housekeeping cleaners ...............…..... 122

Private household cleaners and servants .....……. 112

Physicians ....................................................…….. 108

Financial managers .......................................….... 102

Lawyers……………………………………………………….99

Source: Monthly Labor Review


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Industry Employment2000-2010

  • Service Sector – Continues to dominate growth adding 20.5 million jobs (+19%).

  • Manufacturing down by 3%.

  • Health, Business, Human Services, Engineering, Management and related services account for 1 of every 2 non-farm jobs.

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


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Occupational Employment 2000-2010

  • Professional and related occupations will add 7% and 5.1%, respectively.

  • Transportation and material moving occupations are projected to grow 15%.

  • Office admin support will grow more slowly.

  • 8-10 fastest growing occupations are computer related.

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


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Fastest Growing Occupations, 2000–2010(National)

  • Computer Software Engineer +100%

  • Computer Support Specialist + 97%

  • Medical Assistants + 57%

  • Soc. & Human Serv. Asst. + 54%

  • Physician Asst. + 53%

  • Home Health Aide + 47%

  • Veterinary Asst. + 40%

  • Dental Asst. + 37%

Source: Monthly Labor Review


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Fastest Growing Occupations, New York (per year)

  • Computer Scientists +7.9%

  • Computer Support Spec. +6.3%

  • Paralegals +5.5%

  • Medical Scientists +4.6%

  • Post-sec. Health Teachers +4.4%

  • Sheet Metal Duct Installers +4.4%

  • Medical Asst. +4.0%

  • Dental Asst. +3.6%

    Source: NY Dept. of Labor


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Fastest Growing Occupations, North Carolina (per year)

  • Computer Scientists +8.0%

  • Desktop Publishing Spec. +7.0%

  • Health Practitioners +6.7%

  • Paralegals +6.5%

  • Computer Support Spec. +6.4%

  • Respiratory Therapists +5.8%

  • Cardiology Techs. +5.7%

  • Computer Science

    Teachers(post-sec.) +5.7%

    Source: NC Employment Security Commission


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Fastest Growing Occupations, Georgia (per year)

  • Computer Engineers +12.8

  • Demonstrators & Models +11.6%

  • Human Service Workers +9.0%

  • Home Health Aides +8.9%

  • Offset Press Operators +7.2%

  • Child Care Workers +6.4%

  • Bakers +5.8%

  • Private Detectives +5.4%

  • Physical Therapists +5.1%

    Source: NW Georgia Career Depot


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Fastest Growing Occupations, Kentucky (per year)

  • Computer Scientists +13.9

  • Physical Therapy Asst. +10%

  • Personal Home Care Aides +9.6%

  • Computer Support Spec. +9.1%

  • Physical Therapists +8.5%

  • Occupational Therapists +8.2%

  • Medical Asst. +7.8%

  • Paralegals +7.2%

    Source: Kentucky Dept. for Employment Services


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Fastest Growing Occupations, Indiana (2000-2008)

  • Computer Engineers +100.2%

  • Computer Support Spec. +73.8%

  • Home Health Aides +64.7%

  • Medical Asst. +61.5%

  • Human Services Asst. +56.8%

  • Ship Mates +52.9%

  • Physician Asst. +48.1%

  • Physical Therapy Asst. +46.4%

    Source: Indiana Career & Postsecondary Advancement Center


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Fastest Growing Occupations, Missouri (2000-2008)

  • Computer Scientists +82.1%

  • Desktop Publishing Spec. +76.5%

  • Computer Support Spec. +67.8%

  • Paralegals +62.4%

  • Health Practitioners +61.7%

  • Computer Science Teachers +50.0%

  • Rec/Leisure/ Fitness Teachers +47.1%

  • Respiratory Therapists +44.1%

    Source: Missouri Economic Research & Information Center


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Fastest Growing Occupations, Texas (2000-2010)

  • Computer & Data Processing +55.5%

  • Management & PR +41.3%

  • Freight/Transportation Arrangement +41.1%

  • Automobile Repair +39/7%

  • Osteopathic Phys. Office Work +38.6%

  • Individual & Family /Services +36.2%

  • Health Office Occupations +35.9%

  • Child Care Services +35.8

  • Residential Care +32.2%

    Source: Texas Workforce Commission


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Fastest Growing Occupations, Montana (per year)

  • Computer Support Spec. +83.6

  • Fitness Trainer +59.1%

  • Home Care Aides +57%

  • Medical Asst. +52.1%

  • Human Service Asst. +51.3%

  • Amusement & Rec. Attendants +47.0%

  • Hotel, Motel Clerks +46.8%

  • Tour Guides +41.1%

    Source: Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry


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Fastest Growing Occupations, Oregon (2000-2008)

  • Computer Support Spec. + 114%

  • Human Service Asst. + 78%

  • Private Detectives + 62%

  • Occupational Therapy Aides + 55%

  • Desktop Publishers + 52%

  • Physical Therapists + 48%

  • Physical Therapy Asst. + 47%

  • Child Care Workers + 42%

    Source: OR Labor Market Information System


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Fastest Growing Occupations, California (2000-2010)

  • Computer Specialists +106.8%

  • Human Service Asst. + 68.7%

  • Medical Asst. + 52.7%

  • Teachers (Spec. Ed, Pre-School,

    Kindergarten) + 51.3%

  • Dental Asst., & Hygienists + 50.0%

  • Medical Records Tech. + 49.3%

  • Speech Pathologists + 48.3%

  • PR Managers + 47.7%

    Source: CA Labor Market Information System


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New Workforce Skills

Highly Skilled and Unskilled Jobs as a % of the Workforce

Source: Bureau of LaborStatistics


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1996 vs 2000

Declining Job Tenure

Median Years of Job Tenure

Source: Bureau ofLabor Statistics


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Individual

Rigid

Company Focused

Non-Responsive

Insensitive to Diversity

Coordinated

Flexible

Customer Focused

Responsive

Sensitive to Diversity

Other?_____

The Workplace


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new

new

The 21st Century Worker

Skills Needed:


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Implications for Workforce Education/Training

  • Labor shortage of skilled workers

  • Higher levels of education will be necessary to secure new, higher-paying jobs – 80% of jobs will require more post-secondary education

  • No easy answer whether supply of qualified workers will meet demand in key industry sectors


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Path to the American Dream

% of High School Graduates Attending College1979-97 and projected to 2010

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business


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Projected Supply and Demand of Workerswith some Postsecondary Education

Education Required

Source: Bureauof Labor Statistics Bureau, U.S. Census and National Allianceof Business


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Tidal Wave II

Total Undergraduate Enrollment in Postsecondary Education, 1995 and 2015 (in millions)

Source: Carnevale, AnthonyP. and Richard A. Fry. Crossing the Great Divide. Educational Testing Services, 2000.


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National Perspective

Projected Postsecondary Enrollment Distributionby Institution, 1975 to 2015

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business


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Associate Degree Desired

* Does not include all types of training


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Students’ Readiness for College

  • Among families with incomes greater than $75,000 per year, < 60% of HS graduates were highly qualified for admission to 4-yr colleges.

  • For families under $25,000 per year, 47% were not even minimally qualified.

  • 63% of community college students take at least one remedial course.

    Source: U.S. Dept. of Education


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Preparing a 21st Century Workforce : Everyone’s Involved

  • Providers:

    • K-16 (includes public and private 2 & 4 year colleges)

    • Private vocational schools, consultants

    • Industry, businesses and labor unions

  • Need for continuous education and training as workplace demands change.


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Fundamental Changes

  • Training for new economy credentials

    • Vendor provided credentials

    • Vendor driven curriculum

    • Rapid changes in job expertise

  • More than 300 discrete certifications

  • Over 2.4 million IT certifications awarded

  • Most training providers outside traditional higher education

  • and on and on…


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Increasing

Demand for skilled workers

Shortage of prepared workers

Job demand for post-secondary education

Productivity based on skills

Higher educational attainment

Enrollment in post-secondary institutions

Decreasing job tenure

Opportunities for Community Colleges


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More Opportunities for Community Colleges

  • Increasing

    • Education level of the workforce

    • Enrollment in community colleges

    • Diversity of community colleges

    • Need for financial assistance

  • Anywhere & Anytime Learning: (flexible & responsive)

  • Competencies vs. completions

  • Employer relationships

  • Increasing government recognition.


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Advocacy Issues

  • National

    • Elected policy makers

    • Reauthorization of the Higher Education Act

    • Perkins

    • Workforce Investment Act (WIA)

    • Temporary Aid for Needy Families (TANF)

    • Nursing Education

    • International Education

    • Others?


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Advocacy Issues (cont.)

  • State

    • Elected policy makers

    • Effect of declining state economies on budgets.

      • Emphasize importance of education and training in state economy.

      • Emphasize the importance of affordable access.

      • Emphasize role of workforce training in national economy.

      • Others?


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…and More Advocacy Issues

  • Local/Regional

    • Pace of retirements/replacements

    • Small and medium size businesses

    • Urban, suburbs, rural uniqueness


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What is Our Board’s Game Plan?

  • We understand the facts!

  • We understand the trends!


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What is Our Board’s Game Plan?

Question:

How does this Board provide leadership

for AACC regarding key educational and

workforce training-related issues?


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Sources of Demographic and Occupational Data

AARP - http://www.aarp.org/

America’s Career InfoNet - http://www.acinet.org/acinet/default.asp?soccode=&stfips=

America’s Job Bank - dni.us - http://www.ajb. /

Bureau of Labor Statistics - http://www.bls.gov/

Hudson Institute - http://www.hudson.org/


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Sources of Demographic and Occupational Data (cont.)

Monthly Labor Review - http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/welcome.htm

National Alliance of Business - http://www.nab.com/

National Center for Education Statistics - http://nces.ed.gov/

National Governors Association - http://www.nga.org/

National Institute on Aging - http://www.nia.nih.gov/


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Sources of Demographic and Occupational Data (cont.)

State Employment Departments, Departments of Labor, & Labor Market Information Systems

Urban Institute - http://www.urban.org/

U.S. Administration on Aging - http://www.aoa.gov/

U.S. Census Bureau - http://www.census.gov/

U.S. Department of Labor - http://www.dol.gov/


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Thank You!

Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon

Chancellor,

Dallas County Community College District [email protected]


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