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Arms Control and Information Warfare. Problems, Prospects, Policies .... and a Plea for a New Approach towards Arms Control ISODARCO 2002. This Presentation is about.... . What is Arms Control? Definition , Functions , Effects and Instruments Why Arms Control in the Information Age?

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Arms control and information warfare l.jpg

Arms Control and Information Warfare

Problems, Prospects, Policies ....

and a Plea for a New Approach towards

Arms Control

ISODARCO 2002

 Olivier Minkwitz, PRIF


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This Presentation is about....

  • What is Arms Control? Definition, Functions, EffectsandInstruments

  • Why Arms Control in the Information Age?

  • Problems of Arms Control

  • Prospects of Arms Control

  • New Approaches towards Arms Controltraditionalvs. qualitativeandpreventive

  • Main Point: “Building a Culture of restraint”


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What is Arms Control ?

  • Arms Control is not “Disarmament“

  • Terms often used synonymously, but ...

  • Disarmament aims at the complete reduction of arms and of the military as an instrument of politics

  • Disarmament is older, used more often

  • has some utopian connotation and has often failed..


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What is Arms Control ?

  • Arms Control is a pragmatic concept

  • Management of arms dynamics and stability

  • Hay-days of the concept in the 50’s

  • Definition: “all forms of military cooperation, between political enemies, in the interest of reducing the likelihood of war, its scope and violence” (Schelling,1961)


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What is Arms Control ?

Arms Control or Disarmament ?

  • artificial analytical distinction and separation:

    • ethics of “effects” or “principles”

  • Arms Control and Disarmament vary in:

    • perspective, policy advice and actual effects

  • but share common goals:

    • likelihood, scope and violence of war


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    What is Arms Control ?

    • Functions

    • Effects

    • Schools of thought

    • Prerequisites & Requirements

    • Instruments

    • What critics say


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    Six Functions of Arms Control

    1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories or designs of certain weapons

    2) prevent certain military activities

    3) regulate the deployment of armed forces

    4) proscribe transfers of militarily important items

    5) constrain, prohibit the use of certain weapons

    6) build up confidence through openness


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    Six Functions of Arms Control

    1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories of certain weapons

    2) prevent certain military activities

    3) regulate the deployment of armed forces

    4) proscribe transfers of militarily important items

    5) constrain, prohibit the use of certain weapons

    6) build up confidence through openness


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    Possible Effects of Arms Control

    Level 1: International Stability & Security Policy

    • reduces the risk of war started by accident

    • slow down global, regional arms races

    • increase predictability, reduce fears

    • minimize destruction, suffering in armed conflicts

      Level 2: Social and Normative Effects

    • minimize disparities between heavily and lightly armed states

    • save resources for economic, social development

    • promote trust and understanding among nations

    • prospect of peaceful relations


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    Two Theories of Arms Control

    • Realist Approach

      • immediate effects

      • national interest, national instrument

      • Arms Control as an objective

    • Constructivist/Postmodern Approach

      • secondary effects

      • interaction,discourse, changing of interests

      • Arms Control as a process


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    Prerequisites of Arms Control

    • Conflicts and Arms Control are components of international politics; mitigation

    • certain conflicts cannot be directly affected by interstate arms control (revolutionary, liberation movements, terrorism)

    • Arms control is for adversaries(not for allies?, only state actors? Arms control from below?)

    • share common interest in avoiding war


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    Instruments and Methods of Arms Control

    • Retributive Measures:

      1) forceful imposition of arms limits (Cartage, MTA)

    • Unilateral Measures:

      2) unilateral neglect(interwar period)

      3) unilateral decision(Mongolia)

    • Reciprocal Measures:

      4) bilateral negotiation (ABM, INF, SALT)

      5) multilateral negotiation (Hague, Tlatelolco, NPT)


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    Instruments and Methods

    • Negotiation of Treaties, Agreements(formalization)

    • Geographical Measures (regional demilitarized zones)

    • Structural Measures (defensive orientation)

    • Operative Measures (limitation of maneuvers)

    • Verification and Compliance (data exchange, Inspections)

    • Declaratory Measures (declaration of restraint)

    • CSBM (reassure intentions, communication channels)


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    Critics of Arms Control

    Progressive Critics:

    • freezes status quo

    • arms races: bargaining chips

    • arms build up through Arms Control !

      Conservative Critics:

    • only succeeds when unimportant

    • causes conflict, suspicion in the first place

    • problems of verification

    • House of Cards !


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    Critics of Arms Control

    Pragmatics Critics:

    • You need a hegemonic power to create or sustain any (Arms Control) agreements

    • Arms Control is nothing small, civil or economic powers can persue on their own

    • Today, US shows no interest in Arms Control!

      • tailored unilateralism / multilateralism

      • deformalization of Arms Control (SORT 2002, flexibility, friends)


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    Why Arms Control in the Information Age?

    Controlling Information Warfare, Information Operations, Computer Network Operation ?

    6 Key Reasons:

    1) Realist Reasons

    2) Technical Risks

    3) Economic Reasons

    4) Normative Reasons

    5) Timing & Ethics

    6) Constructivist Reason


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    6 Reasons for Arms Control

    1) International Security

    • IW/IO already elements in today’s conflicts (Kosovo, P-3, Israel-Palestine, Afghanistan...)

    • definite source of conflict in the future

    • Proliferation of RMA, IW, IO, CNO Strategies, Doctrine, Concepts and Thinking throughout the military world, implementation

    • Question of interest! Who will benefit from RMA in the long run? Peer competitors, state or non-stated Actors? Driver’s seat?


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    6 Reasons for Arms Control

    2) Technical Risks:

    • complex interdependence of technological systems

    • cascades, dynamics

    • Danger, Threats, Risks, Vulnerabilities? (all still rests on FUD: Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt )


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    6 Reasons for Arms Control

    3) Economic &

    4) Normative Reasons:

    • IO/IW undermines trust in the way we make business (e-commerce,....)

    • IO/IW undermines trust in international relations


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    6 Reasons for Arms Control

    5) Reasons of Timing & Ethics:

    • Question of new technology in general (Nuclear technology, Biotech, IT....)

    • modern technology: Janus-faced technology

    • “Verantwortungsethik” (Ethic of Responsibility)

    • Time


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    6 Reasons for Arms Control

    6) Constructivist/Postmodern Approach

    • Arms Control as a process

    • Innovation not Technology-immanent

    • No “technological imperative”

    • weapons like all technological systems are socially and politically embedded systems(RMA, War and “Democratic Peace”!)


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    Excursion I:RMA, War and the “Democratic Peace”

    • “RMA happen” (historian perspective) vs. RMA’s are being made (strategist’s view)

    • Democracies make RMA’s happen!

      • Post-heroic: Material, human costs

      • Democratic War: moral, cost of legitimacy

  • Undermines the “Democratic peace”

    • Democracy, democratic Institutions, Identity and Norms

  • makes the military are more usable instrument in international relations


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    Problems of Arms Control in the Information Age

    • Abstract and Vagueness

      • not like WMD, small arms, weapons platforms

      • RMA, IW, IO Doctrines, strategy

  • Real Threats and Vulnerabilities remain unclear: FUD?

    • Weapons of Mass Disruption or merely

    • computer security, password security and

    • computer user & administrator education, awareness ?


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    Problems of Arms Control in the Information Age

    • Concerns of Definition:

      • what would constitute a cyberweapon, attack or actor ?

      • Offense, defense? Armed aggression, international law?

      • Strategies, doctrine, concepts and technology

  • Policy Concerns

    • Forums, Actors (UN, ITU, NGOs)

  • Economic Concerns

  • Normative Concerns

    • Would we even want to control the flow of Information/Technology

    • democratic potential of IT, free speech...


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    Problems of Arms Control in the Information Age

    • Concerns of Verification and Compliance

      • can we even control the flow of information, software, and technology?

  • Paradoxes & Counter-production

    • would any approach through formal abolition not automatically also define what is allowed?

    • Create trade, development barriers?


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    Prospects of Arms Control

    What then are viable options?Approaches worth examining?

    Do nothing? Being overwhelmed by technological determinism?


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    Prospects of Arms Control

    1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories of certain weapons

    2) prevent certain military activities

    3) regulate the deployment of armed forces

    4) proscribe transfers of militarily important items

    5) constrain, prohibit the use of certain weapons

    6) build up confidence through openness


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    Prospects of Arms Control

    • Focus on State-actors: Military, Intelligence Organization

    • Geographic Measure: demilitarized zones, Infrastructure

    • Structural Measures: Abolition of offensive IO, CNA, mingling of civil/military Infrastructure

    • Operative Measures: ban IO, CNA except in war, general ban; no IW Methods when effects are not known


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    Prospects of Arms Control

    • Technology/Means oriented: abolition of certain software tools, system architecture

    • Proliferation-oriented Measures: Export-controls

    • Actors-oriented: banning the usage, possession of certain technologies by militaries

    • Goal-oriented: banning the attack on civil Infrastructure in general


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    Prospects of Arms Control

    • Verification Measures: logging, identification of military activities, Monitoring, open source verification through NGOs

    • classical instruments


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    Prospects of Arms Control

    Creating soft Norms and Taboos:

    • Declaratory Means

    • Code of Conduct

      • No-First Use

      • offensive Information Operations/Computer Network Attacks

      • Strategy & Doctrine

  • Information Warfare Convention

    • off targets list

    • IW Regime as Norms trap

  • “Culture of restraint” as a first step


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    Different Approaches to Arms Control in the Information Age

    • Traditional, classical Arms Control focuses:

      • Capabilities based

      • Quantities of weapons

  • Postmodern Arms Control focuses on:

    • Intention based

    • Identity of Actors

    • Quality of weapons

    • new Actors, business, NGOs, Hackers

    • Preventive Arms Control Measures: Identification of military critical technology,R&D, civil oversight, Weapons programs


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    Want to know more ?

    Mailto:

    [email protected]

    PRIF: Peace Research Institute Frankfurtwww.hsfk.de

    FoGIS: Research Information Society and Security Policy, Berlinwww.fogis.de

    Mailinglist infowar.de


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