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Global Warming; A Semi-Educated Rebuttal. The Fact, The Fiction, & The Myth Surrounding Gore’s “Mockumentary”, An Inconvenient Truth D Taylor, 2006. -or-. Gore-Bull Warming; An Inconvenient Media-hype. The Fact, The Fiction, & The Myth Surrounding Gore’s “Mockumentary”,

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Global Warming;A Semi-Educated Rebuttal

The Fact, The Fiction, & The Myth

Surrounding Gore’s “Mockumentary”,

An Inconvenient Truth

D Taylor, 2006


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-or-

Gore-Bull Warming;An Inconvenient Media-hype

The Fact, The Fiction, & The Myth

Surrounding Gore’s “Mockumentary”,

An Inconvenient Truth

D Taylor, 2006


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Personal Introduction

  • I am NOT a(n)

    • Atmospheric Scientist

    • Oceanographic Scientist

    • Environmental Scientist

    • Climatologist

    • Catholic

    • Dumb

      • Although, some will debate this issue…


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Personal Introduction

  • I AM

    • A Physics/Math teacher

      • Degreed and certified in both in multiple states

      • 30 years experience

    • Pretty good at conducting research based on published scientific papers.

    • Concerned about science literacy in the USA.

    • Going to attempt here to separate the proverbial chafe from the real science involved with this hot-button issue called Global Warming…


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What is Global Warming?

  • Popular beliefs, including Al Gore’s, posit several claims.

    1. There is a scientific consensus that the world is heating up at such a rate that polar caps and glaciers are disappearing and certain doom is imminent.

    2. The drastic temperature increase within the last 100 years is due to human production of greenhouse gases; CO2, CH4, and SO2.

    3. We, as a civilization and species, can stop it and reverse it’s ill effects.

    4. Hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, and other natural catastrophes are increasing in number and strength due to this warming.


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What is Global Warming?

  • What is the Greenhouse Effect?

    • “Covering” the atmosphere with material that traps the sun’s heat like a blanket at night.

      • Culprits?

        • H2O, CO2, & SO2

(Source: Ramanathan and Coakley, Rev. Geophys and Space Phys., 16 465 (1978))


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What is Global Warming?

  • Are these claims true? If so, why? If not, why not?

  • First, a little history…


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Earth HistoryBerkeley Univ :http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/phyla/phyla.html

  • Earth is 4.5 Billion years old.

    • Hadean Age (4.65 – 3.8 BA) Surface temp; 250oC.

      • Earth and sun form out of interstellar gas and dust, perhaps triggered by a supernova explosion. Mostly just a big ball of hot stuff; no land, no real shape.

    • Archaean Age (3.8 to 2.5 BA) Srf temp; 100oC

      • Life begins; Photosynthesis in blue-green algae.

        • Atmosphere of water, carbon dioxide, methane, ammonia, nitrogen, but no free oxygen.

    • Proterozoic Age

      • Paleoproterozoic Era (2.5 to 1.6 BA). Srf temp; 80oC

        • stable continents first appeared

        • living organisms, mostly bacteria and archaeans. By about 1.8 billion years ago eukaryotic cells appear as fossils too.

      • Mesoproterozoic Era (1.6 to 0.9 BA). Srf temp; 70oC

        • first evidence of oxygen build-up in the atmosphere

          • This global catastrophe spelled doom for many bacterial groups, but made possible the explosion of eukaryotic forms. These include multicellular algae, and toward the end of the Proterozoic, the first animals.


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Earth HistoryBerkeley Univ :http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/phyla/phyla.html

  • Earth is 4.5 Billion years old.

    • Paleozoic Era (540 - 250 MA), Srf temp; 40oC

      • Largest mass extinction, still unknown cause, in history wiped out approximately 90% of all marine animal species

      • animals, fungi, and plants alike colonized the land, the insects took to the air

      • Continent formations

    • Mesozoic (250 – 65 MA), Srf temp; 10oC

      • Triassic, Jurassic, Cretaceous

      • “Mesozoic” means “middle animal”

      • Except for birds, dinosaurs became extinct at the end of the Cretaceous.

        • Asteroid hit Yucatan Peninsula.

    • Cenozoic (65 MA – Present); Srf temp; 10-20oC

      • sometimes called the Age of Mammals, because the largest land animals have been mammals during that time

        • Mammals were around LONG before this, though. They survived the dinosaur’s demise.

      • Mammals took over. Even though we are outnumbered by insects a trillion to one and by flora by about the same…


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BUT, before there wasGlobal Warming,there wasGlobal Cooling!


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Global Cooling

  • Yes, GLOBAL COOLING!

    • 1960’s - 70’s

    • Science Magazine; 12/10/76

      • Warned of “extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation.”

    • Science Digest; 02/73

      • Reported that “the world’s climatologists are agreed” that we “must prepare for the next ice age.”


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Global Cooling

  • Christian Science Monitor; Warning: Earth’s Climate is Changing Faster than Even Experts Expected , 08/27/74

    • Reported that “glaciers have started to advance, growing seasons in England and Scandinavia are getting shorter, and the North Atlantic is cooling down about as fast as an ocean can cool.”


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Global Cooling

  • Newsweek; The Cooling World, 04/28/75

    • Agreed that meteorologists “are almost unanimous that catastrophic famines might result from this global cooling.”

  • NY Times; 09/14/75

    • The “recent cooling may mark the return to another ice age.”


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Global Cooling

  • Time; 05/21/75

    • “A major cooling of the climate is widely considered inevitable” now that it is “well established” that the Northern Hemisphere’s climate “has been getting cooler since the 40’s.”

  • All these reports started with the research by one guy who ‘found’ that average global temps dropped 1.4oC from 1945-1960. This lead to a spate of spin-off research that all pointed the same way…

    • Data was ±2oC.


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Global Cooling

  • Paul Ehrlich. (Ehrlich, P., 1998)

    • a Stanford University professor and a renowned entomologist specializing in Lepidoptera (butterflies). ls well known as a researcher and author on the subject of human overpopulation.

    • Took part in surveys of insects on the Bering Sea and in the Canadian Arctic in the 40’s & 50’s..

    • Had data that the butterflies were heading further South each year due to cooler temps.


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Global Cooling

  • Fashions change. As Michael Crichton points out in State of Fear(An excellent book akin to Brown’s DaVinci Code, riddled with more fact than fiction even though the overall story is fiction.), “one year it suddenly became unfashionable to look at cooling factors in the Earth’s climate. Today’s academic climatologists are forced to publish within the accepted paradigm that the Earth is warming, that this trend will continue regardless of natural events, and that warming is bad.”


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Global Cooling

  • Of course, none of this really matters anyway!

    • On April 13, 2036, asteroid 99942 Apophis (320m wide and mass of 4x1010kg) is going to hit the earth and cause utter destruction and death of all things except bacteria and roaches before global warming can do its nasty deeds.

      • This is, without saying, due to the overwhelming 0.00004% probability that it will actually be close enough to us to be attracted by our gravity… Otherwise, it’ll miss by a million miles ±a million…

      • And just my luck! It’s 6 months AFTER my mortgage is paid off!


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Global Cooling

Newly Paid-OFF

Taylor Manor!


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Global Warming: Claim #1The world is heating up…

The present hysteria formally began in the summer of 1988, although preparations had been put in place at least three years earlier. That was an especially warm summer in some regions, particularly in the United States. The abrupt increase in temperature in the late 1970s was too abrupt to be associated with the smooth increase in carbon dioxide. Nevertheless, James Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in testimony before Sen. Al Gore's Committee on Science, Technology and Space, said, in effect, that he was 99 percent certain that temperature had increased and that there was some greenhouse warming. He made no statement concerning the relation between the two. (Lindzen, 2004)


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Global Warming: Claim #1The world is heating up…

  • According to AccuWeather™, the world’s leading commercial forecaster, "Global air temperatures as measured by land-based weather stations show an increase of about 0.45 degrees Celsius over the past century. This may be no more than normal climatic variation...[and] several biases in the data may be responsible for some of this increase."(Bastardi, J., 2005)

    • Biases that include a ±0.6oC data range.


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Global Warming: Claim #1The world is heating up…

  • Since 1976, NASA satellite data indicates a slight cooling in the climate in the last 18 years; -0.06oC. These satellites use advanced technology, including a GPS system that is still classified, and are not subject to the "heat island" effect around major cities that alters ground-based thermometers.

    • ie. The ‘BIG’ picture.

    • Data error ±0.03oC


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Global Warming: Claim #1The world is heating up…

  • Scientific consensus?

    • This wouldn’t be such a hot topic if there actually were a consensus…


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Global Warming: Claim #1The world is heating up…

  • Scientific consensus?

    • A 2004 Gallup® survey indicated that only 17% of the members of the American Meteorological Society andthe American Geophysical Society thought the warming of the 20th century was the result of an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. (Gallop, 2004)

    • Meanwhile, Times™ reports that 87% of the population thinks so. (Times, 2006)

      • Can you say, “ignorant masses”?


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Global Warming: Claim #1The world is heating up…


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Global Warming : Claim #2WE are doing the heating up…

  • FACT: Nature produces far more greenhouse gases than we do; totally contrary to popular (Gore) view.

    • For example, when Mount Pinatubo (April 1991, Philippines) volcano erupted, within just 3 hours it had thrown into the atmosphere 30 million tonnes (metric ton=1000kg) of sulfur dioxide (SO2); 4x as much as all the factories, power plants and cars in the United States do in an entire year.

    • Oceans emit 90 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) (NOAA, 2003), the main greenhouse gas, every year.

    • Decaying plants & animals throw up another 90 billion tonnes of CO2.

    • Compare these numbers to just 11 billion tonnes a year from humans. (NOAA, 2004)


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Global Warming : Claim #2WE are doing the heating up…

Science published a study last week claiming that a tree ring analysis found striking similarities between 20th century increases in global temperature and the Medieval Warm Period -- a period lasting from 1330 AD to 1600 AD which saw similar increases in temperature.

Researchers examined ancient tree rings at 14 sties on three continents. According to Edward Cook of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory…


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Global Warming : Claim #2WE are doing the heating up…

“We don't use this as a refutation of greenhouse warming, but it does show that there are processes within the Earth's natural climate system that produce large changes that might be viewed as comparable to what we have seen in the 20th century.”


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Global Warming : Claim #2WE are doing the heating up…

Not surprisingly, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's climate models simply ignore the Medieval Warm Period. The models simply compare current temperatures to those of the immediately preceding pre-industrial societies. It is almost as if the Medieval Warm Period simply never happened as far as the IPCC is concerned (which makes it a lot easier to claim the current warming trend is completely unprecedented and, therefore, must be due to human-induced changes in the climate.

Source: Tree Ring Study Shows Warm Cycles. Paul Recer, The Associated Press, March 21, 2002.


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Global Warming : Claim #2WE are doing the heating up…

  • Mount St. Helens, Washington (1980).

    • The massive ash cloud grew to 80,000 feet (18 kilometers) in 15 minutes and reached the east coast in 3 days.  Although most of the ash fell within 300 miles of the mountain, finer ash circled the earth in 15 days and may continue to stay in the atmosphere for many more years.

    • Estimated at 45 MILLION tonnes (USGS, 1980)


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Global Warming : Claim #2WE are doing the heating up…

  • Mount St. Helens, before.


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Global Warming : Claim #2WE are doing the heating up…

  • Mount St. Helens, after.


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Global Warming : Claim #2WE are doing the heating up…

  • Mount St. Helens, during.


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Global Warming : Claim #2WE are doing the heating up…

  • Mount St. Helens, now.


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Global Warming : Claim #2WE are doing the heating up…

  • Indonesia’s Mount Merapi, the one in the news right now, could be building up to an eruption.

    • Cone has increases 330 feet in last 10 days

    • Emitting ½ million tonnes of gas each day

      • Combo of CO2, SO2, and ash.

      • That’s already 7 MILLION tonnes.

        • One more than we do in a year…


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Global Warming : Claim #2WE are doing the heating up…

  • Natural CO2, CH4, and SO2 emitters :

    • 90,000,000,000 tonnes from the ocean

    • 90,000,000,000 tonnes from decaying icky smellies

    • 30,000,000,000 tonnes from the occasional volcano

    • Totals a staggering 210,000,000,000 tonnes

  • Us?

    • 11,000,000,000 tonnes

      • 4,000,000,000 from us in US. (Is that US2?)


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Global Warming : Claim #2WE are doing the heating up…

  • 98% of total global greenhouse gas emissions are natural (mostly water vapor); only 2% are from man-made sources. (NOAA, 2005)

    • NOT a guess, REAL data, REAL science…

    • Since water vapor is a major component of greenhouse effects, are the proponents suggesting “drying out” the air?

  • 1978 : 275 ppm CO2

  • 1999 : 331 ppm CO2


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Global Warming : Claim #2WE are doing the heating up…

  • By most scientific accounts, man-made emissions have had no more than a minuscule impact on the climate. Although the climate has warmed slightly, 0.45oC remember, in the last 100 years, 70% percent of that warming occurred prior to WWII - 1940, before the upsurge in greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes. (Balling, R., 2004)


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Global Warming : Claim #3WE can stop it…

  • First, yeah, right!

    • Weather forecasting is only about 50% accurate for 10 days into the future. There exists no “magic crystal ball” in the form of a computer program that can predict the plethora of parameters for the distant future; 10 yrs, 50 yrs, 100yrs…

    • Can we stop hurricanes?

      • Hint; nope.

    • Can we stop the sun from pumping out so much radiant energy?

      • Hint; nope.

    • Can we educate the masses of these things?

      • Hint; nope. But, I’ll try…


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Global Warming : Claim #3WE can stop it…

  • Projections of future climate changes are uncertain, at best. Although some computer models predict warming in the next century, these models are very limited. The effects of cloud formations, precipitation, the role of the oceans and future solar activity, are still not well known and often not represented in the climate change models although all play a major role in determining our climate.


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Global Warming : Claim #3WE can stop it…

  • Scientists who work on these models are quick to point out that they are far from perfect representations of reality, and are “probably not advanced enough for direct use in policy implementation.”

    • Seems like a PC way of saaying they aren’t as right as they think they might be…

  • Interestingly, as the computer climate models have become more sophisticated in recent years, the predicted increase in temperature has been lowered.


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Global Warming : Claim #3WE can stop it…

  • The idea that global warming would melt the ice caps and flood coastal cities seems to be mere science fiction, like Costner’s Waterworld; still a classic... A slight increase in temperature, whether natural or mankind induced, is not likely to lead to a massive melting of the earth ice caps as sometimes claimed in the media. Also, sea-level rises over the centuries relate more to warmer and thus expanding oceans, not to melting ice caps.


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Global Warming : Claim #3WE can stop it…

  • Larger quantities of CO2 in the atmosphere and warmer climates would most likely lead to an increase in vegetation anyway. During warm periods in history vegetation flourished, at one point, circa 1300AD, allowing the Vikings to farm in now frozen Greenland.

  • If the entire world is included and CO2 emissions are severely restricted, the science is not clear what impact, if any, it would have on the world’s climate.


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Global Warming : Claim #3WE can stop it…

  • Repeat: If the entire world is included and CO2 emissions are severely restricted, the science is not clear what impact, if any, it would have on the world’s climate.

    • So to claim otherwise, is mere speculation.


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Global Warming : Claim #3WE can stop it…

  • Stabilizing emissions at 1990 levels by 2010 would reduce the growth of US per capita income by 5% per year. (Yohe, G.W., 2006)


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Global Warming : Claim #4Causes increased hurricanes & such…

  • Nov. 29, 2005 — The nation is now wrapping up the 11th year of a new era of heightened Atlantic hurricane activity. This era has been unfolding in the Atlantic since 1995, and is expected to continue for the next decade or perhaps longer. NOAA attributes this increased activity to natural occurring cycles in tropical climate patterns near the equator. These cycles, called “the tropical multi-decadal signal,” typically last several decades (20 to 30 years or even longer).


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Global Warming : Claim #4Causes increased hurricanes & such…

  • As a result, the North Atlantic experiences alternating decades long (20 to 30 year periods or even longer) of above normal or below normal hurricane seasons. NOAA research shows that the tropical multi-decadal signal is causing the increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, and is not related to greenhouse warming. (NOAA, 2005)


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Global Warming : Claim #4Causes increased hurricanes & such…

  • In a Discover Magazine interview, William Gray, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science and famous hurricane predictor, discounts Global Warming. (Discover, 2005)

    • Disc: You don’t believe global warming is causing climate change?

    • Gray: No. If it is, it is causing such a small part that it is negligible. I’m not disputing that there has been global warming. There was a lot of global warming in the 1930s and ’40s, and then there was a slight global cooling from the middle ’40s to the early ’70s. And there has been warming since the middle ’70s, especially in the last 10 years. But this is natural, due to ocean circulation changes and other factors. It is not human induced.


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Global Warming : Claim #4Causes increased hurricanes & such…

  • In a Discover Magazine interview, William Gray, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science and famous hurricane predictor, discounts Global Warming. (Discover, 2005)

    • Disc: That must be a controversial position among hurricane researchers.

    • Gray: Nearly all of my colleagues who have been around 40 or 50 years are skeptical as hell about this whole global-warming thing. But no one asks us. If you don’t know anything about how the atmosphere functions, you will of course say, “Look, greenhouse gases are going up, the globe is warming, they must be related.” Well, just because there are two associations, changing with the same sign, doesn’t mean that one is causing the other.


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Global Warming : Claim #4Causes increased hurricanes & such…

  • In a Discover Magazine interview, William Gray, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science and famous hurricane predictor, discounts Global Warming. (Discover, 2005)

    • Disc: With last year’s hurricane season so active, and this year’s looking like it will be, won’t people say it’s evidence of global warming?

    • Gray: The Atlantic has had more of these storms in the last 10 years or so, but in other ocean basins, activity is slightly down. Why would that be so if this is climate change? The Atlantic is a special basin? The number of major storms in the Atlantic also went way down from the middle 1960s to the middle ’90s, when greenhouse gases were going up.


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Global Warming : Claim #4Causes increased hurricanes & such…

  • In a Discover Magazine interview, William Gray, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science and famous hurricane predictor, discounts Global Warming. (Discover, 2005)

    • Disc: Why is there scientific support for the idea?

    • Gray: So many people have a vested interest in this global-warming thing—all these big labs and research and stuff. The idea is to frighten the public, to get money to study it more. Now that the cold war is over, we have to generate a common enemy to support science, and what better common enemy for the globe than greenhouse gases?


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Global Warming : Claim #4Causes increased hurricanes & such…

  • In a Discover Magazine interview, William Gray, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science and famous hurricane predictor, discounts Global Warming. (Discover, 2005)

    • Disc: Are your funding problems due in part to your views?

    • Gray: I can’t be sure, but I think that’s a lot of the reason. I have been around 50 years, so my views on this are well known. I had NOAA money for 30 some years, and then when the Clinton administration came in and Gore started directing some of the environmental stuff, I was cut off. I couldn’t get any NOAA money. They turned down 13 straight proposals from me.


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

Thursday, March 21, 2002: Reuters today released a hilarious account marking the collapse of the Antarctic shelf. According to Reuters,

The Antarctic Peninsular has warmed by 36 degrees Fahrenheit over the past half century, far faster than elsewhere on the ice-bound continent or the rest of the world.

Huh? If the Antarctic shelf had warmed 36 degrees over the last 50 years, the shelf would have collapsed a long time ago. So how did the moron (SoSuMi!) who wrote this arrive at this figure?


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

Well, the actual warming was only about 2.5 degrees Celsius. Since +2.5 degrees Celsius is equivalent to about +36 degrees Fahrenheit, the Reuters reporter concluded that this was a 36 degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature.

Somebody needs to go back to college for a refresher course.

Note, however, that the collapse of the Antarctic shelf is not a result of global warming. As the Washington Post correctly noted in its coverage,


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

“Researchers and scientists who study the Antarctic Peninsula cautioned that there was little evidence to directly link the ice shelf collapse to the effects of global warming, which is induced by carbon dioxide and other man-made "greenhouse" gases. Rather, they are blaming a localized warming period that allowed melt water to seep into cracks and trigger massive fracturing of the ice when temperatures dropped.”

Sources:

  • Global Warming Shatters Giant Antarctic Ice Shelf. Reuters, March 19, 2002.

  • Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapses Into Sea: Scientists Split on Global Warming Role. Eric Pianin, Washington Post, March 20, 2002.


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

Wednesday, October 3, 2001: In early September, NBC ran an intriguing Global Warming story. According to the story, the temperature in Glacier National Park, Montana, had risen over the last century to the point where the famous glaciers were melting. Thanks to humanity's impact on climate, this incredible natural wonder would soon disappear. While that made a compelling story, it turns out to be fictitious.


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

Writing for the prestigious Cato Institute, Patrick Michaels notes that interested parties can download detailed temperature records for western Montana, where Glacier National Park is located, on the Internet. The Western Montana Climatological Division maintains climate records for the state that begin in 1895.

The interesting thing about those records is that temperatures in Glacial Park today are almost identical to what they were 107 years ago; 0.05oC BELOW! So where is the 3 and 1/2 degree increase that NBC claimed was melting the glaciers? This change comes by looking at ONLY the data beginning in 1950, when, for a variety of reasons, the temperature was far lower than it was in 1895.


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

As Michaels puts it, the anomaly is not that the glaciers are melting -- they were almost certainly melting as soon as that part of the West emerged from a cold period that ended sometime in the middle of the 19th century. The anomaly is that this melting was temporarily slowed down around 1950. Michaels asks,

Why didn't NBC check the regional temperature records for western Montana? Instead of recycling an old story, they could have produced a much better one -- real news -- by showing that Glacier's' glaciers have been melting like this for well over a century and are doing so without any net regional summer warming in the last 100 years.

Ah, but recycling nonsense is so much easier.

Source: NBC twists facts, again, about Glacier Park. Patrick J. Michaels, Cato Institute, September 15, 2001.


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

Wednesday, June 27, 2001; When the National Academy of Sciencesrecently released a report on global climate change it was widely hailed in the media as being incontrovertible proof that there is no serious scientific disagreement about global warming. As CNN's Michelle Mitchell put it, "[the report is] a unanimous decision that global warming is real, is getting worse, and is due to man. There is no wiggle room."

Richard Lindzen, referenced in this PPT on more than one occasion, one of the 11 scientists who prepared the report recently wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal saying that such claims were pure nonsense.


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

Lindzen wrote, Our primary conclusion was that despite some knowledge and agreement, the science is by no means settled. We are quite confident (1) that global mean temperature is about 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than it was a century ago; (2) that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide have risen over the past two centuries; and (3) that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas whose increase is likely to warm the earth (one of many greenhouse gases, the most important being water vapor and clouds).

But--and I cannot stress this enough--we are not in a position to confidently attribute past climate change to carbon dioxide or to forecast what the climate will be in the future. That is to say, contrary to media impressions, agreement with the three basic statements tells us almost nothing relevant to policy discussions.


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

Lindzen goes on to say that there is still far too little known to make the jump from the observed climate changes over the past 20 years to the broader claim that human activity will lead to the sort of dire forecasts predicted by many environmentalists.

Source: Global warming: The press got it wrong. Richard S. Lindzen, Wall Street Journal, June 11, 2001.


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

  • Showing the often referenced and photographed Argentinian area of the Upsala Glacier where the glacier has obviously disappeared within the last 70 years, Gore and others fail to even mention why this happened or how it happened. He only says, "Here is scientific proof of global warming's devastating affects."


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

  • The Upsala Glacier and six other glaciers descend from the South Andean icefield into a lake, surprisingly called Upsala Lake.

    • “I was astounded to discover that while the Upsala glacier had retreated rapidly, the other glaciers [that fed the lake] showed little movement, and one had advanced across the lake into the Magellan peninsula. If in the same area some glaciers advance and others retreat, the cause is clearly not global warming but local micro-conditions.” (Aivar, 2004)


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

  • Another set of pictures used by Gore and the Greenies is:


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

  • Note the date on the left “photo”; 1859. A little before Eastman developed his techniques for taking photos…

    • It’s an etching.

      • I find it difficult to compare an artists rendition in an etching to a scientific relationship of reality.


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Global Warming : Media HypePoor conclusions from poorer info…

  • Try comparing Van Gogh’s Starry Night to a real starry night…


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

  • “…as a scientist, I can find no substantive basis for the warming scenarios being popularly described.”

    • Richard S. Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at MIT.


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

From the Canadian Free Press:

(http://www.canadafreepress.com/2006/harris061206.htm)

EXCELLENT review from real scientists based on Gore-Bull Warming’s Inconvenient Truth claims. Click link above; too long to post here…

Scientists respond to Gore's warnings of climate catastrophe ;

By Tom Harris, Monday, June 12, 2006

Tom Harris is mechanical engineer and Ottawa Director of High Park Group, a public affairs and public policy company. He can be reached at [email protected]


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

By Tom Harris…

  • A few quotes from the article, tho..

    • Professor Bob Carter of the Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, in Australia gives what, for many Canadians, is a surprising assessment: "Gore's circumstantial arguments are so weak that they are pathetic. It is simply incredible that they, and his film, are commanding public attention."


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

By Tom Harris…

  • A few quotes from the article, tho..

    • Among experts who actually examine the causes of change on a global scale, many concentrate their research on designing and enhancing computer models of hypothetical futures. "These models have been consistently wrong in all their scenarios," asserts Ball. "Since modelers concede computer outputs are not "predictions" but are in fact merely scenarios, they are negligent in letting policy-makers and the public think they are actually making forecasts."

      • University of Winnipeg climatology professor Dr. Tim Ball


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

By Tom Harris…

  • We should listen most to scientists who use real data to try to understand what nature is actually telling us about the causes and extent of global climate change. In this relatively small community, there is no consensus, despite what Gore and others would suggest.


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

By Tom Harris…

  • Appearing before the Commons Committee on Environment and Sustainable Development last year, Carleton University paleoclimatologist Professor Tim Patterson testified, "There is no meaningful correlation between CO2 levels and Earth's temperature over this [geologic] time frame. In fact, when CO2 levels were over ten times higher than they are now, about 450 million years ago, the planet was in the depths of the absolute coldest period in the last half billion years." Patterson asked the committee, "On the basis of this evidence, how could anyone still believe that the recent relatively small increase in CO2 levels would be the major cause of the past century's modest warming?"


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

By Tom Harris…

  • Dr. Boris Winterhalter, former marine researcher at the Geological Survey of Finland and professor in marine geology, University of Helsinki, takes apart Gore's dramatic display of Antarctic glaciers collapsing into the sea. "The breaking glacier wall is a normally occurring phenomenon which is due to the normal advance of a glacier," says Winterhalter. "In Antarctica the temperature is low enough to prohibit melting of the ice front, so if the ice is grounded, it has to break off in beautiful ice cascades. If the water is deep enough icebergs will form."


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

By Tom Harris…

  • Dr. Wibjörn Karlén, emeritus professor, Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden clarifies that “the 'mass balance' of Antarctica is positive - more snow is accumulating than melting off.” As a result, Ball explains, there is an increase in the 'calving' of icebergs as the ice dome of Antarctica is growing and flowing to the oceans. When Greenland and Antarctica are assessed together, "their mass balance is considered to possibly increase the sea level by 0.03 mm/year - not much of an effect," Karlén concludes.


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

By Tom Harris…

  • Karlén explains that a paper published in 2003 by University of Alaska professor Igor Polyakov shows that, the region of the Arctic where rising temperature is supposedly endangering polar bears showed fluctuations since 1940 but no overall temperature rise. "For several published records it is a decrease for the last 50 years," says Karlén


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

By Tom Harris…

  • Dr. Dick Morgan, former advisor to the World Meteorological Organization and climatology researcher at University of Exeter, U.K. gives the details, "There has been some decrease in ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic over the past 30 years but no melt down. The Canadian Ice Service records show that from 1971-1981 there was average, to above average, ice thickness. From 1981-1982 there was a sharp decrease of 15% but there was a quick recovery to average, to slightly above average, values from 1983-1995. A sharp drop of 30% occurred again 1996-1998 and since then there has been a steady increase to reach near normal conditions since 2001."


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

By Tom Harris…

  • Concerning Gore's beliefs about worldwide warming, Morgan points out that, in addition to the cooling in the NW Atlantic, massive areas of cooling are found in the North and South Pacific Ocean; the whole of the Amazon Valley; the north coast of South America and the Caribbean; the eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea, Caucasus and Red Sea; New Zealand and even the Ganges Valley in India. Morgan explains, "Had the IPCC used the standard parameter for climate change (the 30 year average) and used an equal area projection, instead of the Mercator (which doubled the area of warming in Alaska, Siberia and the Antarctic Ocean) warming and cooling would have been almost in balance."


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

By Tom Harris…

  • Gore's point that 200 cities and towns in the American West set all time high temperature records is also misleading according to Dr. Roy Spencer, Principal Research Scientist at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. "It is not unusual for some locations, out of the thousands of cities and towns in the U.S., to set all-time records," he says. "The actual data shows that overall, recent temperatures in the U.S. were not unusual."


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

By Tom Harris…

  • Carter does not pull his punches about Gore's activism, "The man is an embarrassment to US science and its many fine practitioners, a lot of whom know (but feel unable to state publicly) that his propaganda crusade is mostly based on junk science."


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

  • “I testified at a Senate hearing conducted by Sen. Gore. There was a rather arcane discussion of the water vapor in the upper troposphere. Two years ago, I had pointed out that if the source of water vapor in that region in the tropics was from deep clouds, then surface warming would be accompanied by reduced upper level water vapor. Subsequent research has established that there must be an additional source--widely believed to be ice crystals thrown off by those deep clouds. I noted that that source too probably acts to produce less moisture in a warmer atmosphere. Both processes cause the major feedback process to become negative rather than positive.” … (Continued next slide…)


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

  • “Sen. Gore asked whether I now rejected my suggestion of two years ago as a major factor. I answered that I did. Gore then called for the recording secretary to note that I had retracted my objections to "global warming.'' In the ensuing argument, involving mostly other participants in the hearing, Gore was told that he was confusing matters. Shortly thereafter, however, Tom Wicker published an article in the New York Times that claimed that I had retracted my opposition to warming and that that warranted immediate action to curb the purported menace.” … (Continued next slide…)


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

  • “I wrote a letter to the Times indicating that my position had been severely misrepresented, and, after a delay of over a month, my letter was published. Sen. Gore nonetheless claims in his book and movie that I have indeed retracted my scientific objections to the catastrophic warming scenario and also warns others who doubt the scenario that they are hurting humanity.”

    • Richard S. Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at MIT.


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

  • "There are no real facts to back it up. It's now become a religion instead of science and great fundraiser for extreme environmentalists. I don't think it's a hoax, just bogus science, like eugenics was decades ago. I got news for you ... the weather patterns change. A thousand years ago, Europe was warmer than it is today. Five hundred years ago we had a mini-ice age. Sixty years ago between 1940 and 1970, the weather got cooler. Now it gets a couple of degrees warmer and suddenly the world's comin' to an end. It's nonsense.“

    • Steven Forbes, 2006


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

  • “19,500 scientists have signed petitions saying global warming is not a problem so, if it's an uncertainty, don't treat it as a religion [and] browbeat everyone who isn't going along with it." He continued, "...[We] don't really know what changes the climate. It could be sunspots, ocean currents. It keeps changing every few years."

    • Steven Forbes, 2006


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

  • "Nine of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1995 with 2005 the hottest."—Statement issued 02/01/06 by NOAA

  • 01/02/06: The Associated Press and others reported that NASA scientists said 1998 was the warmest year on record, nosing out 2005 and 3 others tied for 2nd.

  • Complicating matters, ground-based temperature-monitoring stations are sparse or nonexistent in many parts of the world, particularly in the Arctic.

    • National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

  • “A confusing array of new and recent studies reveals that scientists know very little about how much sunlight is absorbed by Earth versus how much the planet reflects, how all this alters temperatures, and why any of it changes from one decade to the next.”

    • LiveScience Sr Editor, Robert Britt; 05/05/05


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

  • “You may be interested to know that global warming, earthquakes, hurricanes, and other natural disasters are a direct effect of the shrinking numbers of Pirates since the 1800s.”

    • Bobby Henderson, Chief Pastor of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster. (http://www.venganza.org/)


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

NY Times

  • The New York Times ran both a story, and editorial and a Bob Herbert column claiming that temperatures in Alaska had increased by 7 degrees Fahrenheit in only 30 years. That claim was completely bogus and on July 11, the New York Times issued a correction, …


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

NY Times

  • A front-page article on June 16 about climate change in Alaska misstated the rise in temperatures there in the last 30 years. (The error was repeated in an editorial on Monday and in the Bob Herbert column on the Op-Ed page of June 24.) According to an assessment by the University of Alaska's Center for Global Change and Arctic System Research, the annual mean temperature has risen 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit over 30 years, not 7 degrees.


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

NY Times

  • However, according to the Alaska Climate Research Center,

    • In their 11 July, 2002 Edition, the New York Times ran a correction of the value of 7°F as used in the 16 June article, 24 June op/ed, and mentioned in an 8 July op/ed as well. The corrected value is now 5.4°F over a 30 year period. We still find the value of 5.4°F too great by a factor of 2 for the 1971 to 2000 period, the last 30 years. However, the possibility exists that the value of 5.4°F is in reference to a temperature change in some other earlier 30-year period.

      • http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

NY Times

http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/temprec/fai_temp.GIF


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

Schultz, 2002

  • The National Assessment of the Potential Consequence of Climate Variability and Change (NAPCCVC), a report on global warming developed during the Clinton administration, received two conflicting Canadian computer forecasting maps that were taken out of the report and replaced with fabricated maps that relied on a different color scale whose effect was to minimize to the naked eye the blatant differences between the two projections.

    • Coloring Climate Change. Nick Schulz, TechCentralStation.Com, June 28, 2002.


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

Schultz, 2002

  • Roger Pielke, a respected atmospheric scientist at Colorado State who was involved with the drafting process at NAPCCVC at the time, said, "I'm disappointed in the whole process. This has been the most closed, unhealthy scientific process I've ever been involved in."


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

  • One of the nicer synopsis's (synopsii?) of the history of global climate I’ve seen comes from Dr. Derrick Kelly of American University. Here’s a link to his take (since the quote is quite long…)


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

  • Following slides are from CLIMAP;

    • Changes in global ice volume during the last 500,000 years, as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements. Chart is from John and Katherine Imbrie's book Ice Ages: Solving the Mystery, by permission of Enslow Publishers. Data from J. D. Hays et al., 1976, by permission J. D. Hays.

CLIMAP


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Global WarmingInteresting Quotes…

  • In 1976, scientists at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory spearheaded a project called CLIMAP (Clint: Long-range Investigation Mapping and Prediction) to map the history of the oceans and climate.

  • They discovered that ice ages begin or end, almost like clockwork, every 11,500 years. It's a dependable, predictable, natural cycle. Pacemaker of the Ice Ages, they called it.

  • They drew up a chart of the cycle (Next Slide).

CLIMAP


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CLIMAP


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Global Warming as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements.Interesting Quotes…

  • See the sharp peaks every 100,000 years or so? Each peak marks the abut end of a period of warmth similar to today's and the catastrophic beginning of a new ice age.

  • See where we are today? (At the far right side of the chart?) We're at the tip of the highest peak ever, teetering on the knife-edge of disaster. We haven't been that high on the chart for half a million years.

CLIMAP


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Global Warming as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements.Interesting Quotes…

  • And do you see what happened--without exception--every time we got that high on the chart?

  • Instantaneous ice age.

  • The next ice age could begin any day.

CLIMAP


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Global Warming – REAL data… as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements.


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Global Warming – REAL data… as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements.


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Global Warming – REAL data… as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements.


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Global Warming – REAL data… as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements.


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References as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements.

  • Balling, R., (2004). Arizona State University

  • Bastardi, J., (2005). Op-Ed Durham Herald-Sun May 15, 2005

  • Discover, (2005). Interview By Kathy A. Svitil; Vol. 26 No. 09. September 2005

  • Ehrlich, P., (1998) Betrayal of Science and Reason: How Anti-Environment Rhetoric Threatens Our Future (co-authored with Anne Ehrlich)

  • Gallop, (2004).

  • NOAA, (2003). http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/releases2003/oct03/noaa03-131.html

  • NOAA, (2004).


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References as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements.

  • NOAA, (2005). NOAA Attributes Recent Increase in Hurricane Activity to Naturally Occurring Multi-decadal Climate Variability.

    • http://www.magazine.noaa.gov/stories/mag184.htm

  • Times, (2006). Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid. Special issue; May 12, 2006

  • (Dr. Swaminathan Aiyar, U of New Delhi, <i>Global warming or global cooling?</i>; The Times of India.) <a href="(http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1034077.cms)">(http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1034077.cms)


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References as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements.

  • Times, (2006). Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid. Special issue; May 12, 2006

  • Dr. Swaminathan Aiyar, U of New Delhi, Global warming or global cooling?; The Times of India.

    • (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1034077.cms)

  • Yohe, GW, (2006). Prepared Statement Of Gary W. Yohe to Congress on “The Hidden (Climate Change) Costs of Oil” - March 30, 2006. (John E. Andrus Professor Of Economics, Wesleyan University). Retrieved from (http://lugar.senate.gov/energy/pdf/YoheTestimony060330.pdf)


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Web References for further study… as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements.

  • Article describing the sun’s increased energy output recently.

    • http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/07/18/wsun18.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/07/18/ixnewstop.html

  • American Enterprise Institute’s article, How to Think Sensibly About Global Warming.

    • http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.24545/pub_detail.asp

  • Myths of GW

    • http://www.lewrockwell.com/stagnaro/stagnaro12.html

  • Myths of GW-2; Center for National Policy

    • http://www.ncpa.org/ba/ba230.html

  • Series of Papers by a top Think Tank… (Folks much smarter than I…)

    • http://www.ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/moregw.htm


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Web References for further study… as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements.

  • Global Cooling – MUST read…

    • http://www.lewrockwell.com/walker/walker17.html

  • NSF funded; Antarctic Cooling.

    • http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/20020015034521data_trunc_sys.shtml

  • Global Warming or Cooling? (Times Internet – India)

    • http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1034077.cms

  • Misunderstandings of GW Data

    • http://www.johnlocke.org/acrobat/spotlights/spotlight_281_hockeystickwarming.pdf

  • NOAA Statement on independence of hurricanes et al and GW

    • http://www.magazine.noaa.gov/stories/mag184.htm

  • Russian Expert Predicts Global Cooling from 2012

    • http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/02/06/globalcold.shtml


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Web References for further study… as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements.

  • Harvard Study : Snowball Earth

    • http://www.eps.harvard.edu/people/faculty/hoffman/snowball_paper.html

  • Michael Crichton’s Aliens Cause GW

    • http://www.crichton-official.com/speeches/speeches_quote04.html

  • Review of the errors as reported in the media pertaining to GW

    • http://www.skepticism.net/faq/environment/global_warming/index.html

  • Science article: Climate Change During Medieval Warm Period Very Similar to 20th Century Rise in Temperature

    • http://www.skepticism.net/articles/2002/000033.html

  • http://www.skepticism.net/articles/2002/000032.html

  • http://www.canadafreepress.com/2006/harris061206.htm


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