climate change in the middle east complex causes and effects
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Climate Change in the Middle East: Complex Causes and Effects

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Climate Change in the Middle East: Complex Causes and Effects. Climate Change Predictions for MENA. Higher temperatures (1-2 degree rise by 2050) Reduced or steady (low) precipitation Increased incidence of drought, heat waves

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climate change predictions for mena
Climate Change Predictions for MENA
  • Higher temperatures (1-2 degree rise by 2050)
  • Reduced or steady (low) precipitation
  • Increased incidence of drought, heat waves
  • Reduced surface water; increased stress on already depleted groundwater reserves
  • Sea level rise of .5 meter by 2100
  • Reduction in agricultural output
  • Relatively low carbon emissions--focus on adaptation
  • Challenge for hydroelectric generation and irrigation
in an already arid region climate change will
In an already arid region, climate change will
  • reduce agricultural productivity through desertification and drought, increased soil salinity, inability to irrigate
  • increase stress on urban populations and their access to safe water,
  • inundate many coastal areas, forcing population relocation and further reducing agricultural output
water is
Water is:
  • Geography:
    • climate change
    • Middle Eastern aridity
    • localized adaptation
water is5
Water is:
  • Science:
    • new desalinization techniques
    • Adaptation of new plants tolerant of higher salinity
    • traditional water gathering/storing/transporting
    • Newly discovered aquifers in the desert, etc.
    • New health challenges and disease vectors
water is6
Water is:
  • Economics:
    • Agriculture
    • Hydroelectric projects
    • Fisheries
    • Transportation
    • Urbanization
    • Tourism
    • Restrictions on development
water is7
Water is:
  • Politics
    • legitimacy for govts (GAP, Libya pipeline, agriculture

in Israel, Jordan river/Golan)

    • Food shortages/riots
    • Inequities in water use/access
    • disputes over river flows and water sovereignty

(Tigris/Euphrates, bargaining chip in other issues)

    • Exacerbation of conflict between neighbors (Israel/Palestine, Israel/Jordan, Turkey/Iraq)
    • international challenge:

how do we solve regional issues with global implications?

water is8
Water is:
  • Society:
    • food riots in Egypt,
    • urban centers with too little water,
    • health problems from contaminated water

due to reduced river flows,

    • new environmentalist civil society vs. new aspirations
water is9
Water is:
  • Culture:
    • marsh Arabs,
    • Bedouin,
    • urbanization,
    • changing sustenance farming and fishing villages
    • disruption of traditional water-sharing mechanisms
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