A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of hong kong
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A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of Hong Kong. Paul Yip. Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong. Outlines. An overview of the population and marriage distribution

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A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of hong kong l.jpg

A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of Hong Kong

Paul Yip

Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong


Outlines l.jpg
Outlines of Hong Kong

  • An overview of the population and marriage distribution

  • An analysis of Total fertility rate (the number babies born to a woman over the child bearing period)

  • Opportunities and challenges







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Total marital fertility rates birth, 1981-2003

  • The TMFR depends on age of marriage

  • Overall, the TMFR has also decreased for the past 2 decades

  • In 2001, the TMFR for resident women was around 2 (close to the replacement level), given that they got married at 20

  • However, the figure would shrink to 1.6 if they got married at 25


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Marriage age postponement birth, 1981-2003



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Marriage squeeze phenomenon in Hong Kong (2) that about 29.7% of males and 24% of female would remain single when they reach 40






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Number of live births in Hong Kong by parents, 1991 – 2004

residence of mothers, 1981 - 2003


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Reasons for decline of TFR parents, 1991 – 2004

  • Reduction on marital fertility rate

  • Increase in the number of spinsterhood

  • Late marriage (median age on first marriage: 30 males and 27 females)

  • Imbalance of the supply and demand (bachelors vs. spinsters) about 90,000 of women (age 20-44) outnumbers men (25-49)


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WHY? A study on Barriers to Fertility parents, 1991 – 2004 for married couples

  • Knowledge Attitude and Practice (KAP) study by the Family Planning Association

  • A similar study entitled “Barriers on Fertility” Yip, Lee and Lam, (2002)

    The three major concerns:

    1. Unfavorable Economic condition

    2. Unsatisfactorily Education service

    3. Individual preference.


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Number of spinsterhood is increasing parents, 1991 – 2004


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Proportion of ever married persons parents, 1991 – 2004


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Fertility parents, 1991 – 2004

  • Do we have a problem? Yes!

  • Is it a tempo problem? No!


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Speed and Magnitude of the reduction of the Fertility parents, 1991 – 2004

  • It is the speed and the magnitude of the reduction of the fertility rate,


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What can we learn from the overseas countries parents, 1991 – 2004

  • Different measures have been implemented in many countries which have experienced low fertility (i.e. Australia, France, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Sweden and USA) that inhibit fertility decline.

  • Are they relevant in Hong Kong?


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Total fertility rates of Hong Kong and parents, 1991 – 2004 selected low fertility economies, 1995 – 2002


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Window closes earlier when the parents, 1991 – 2004 age truncating

fortotal dependency ratio changed

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision


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The challenges: parents, 1991 – 2004

Quantity

vs

Quality

  • How to revert the low fertility:

  • Replacement Migration:

  • Healthy Population:


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Low fertility parents, 1991 – 2004

  • About 60% reduction is due to change of marital distribution rather than the reduction of marital fertility rate

  • Promoting fertility: CS suggested to have three. Due to the late marriage, they might not be able to catch up (1st order of birth 24.8 in 1981 to 29.8 in 2003)

  • Engage the newborns from Mainland born mothers in Hong Kong. (Of course, solve the critical staff problem first)


Replacement migration l.jpg
Replacement migration parents, 1991 – 2004

  • About more than 80% of the population growth from migration.

  • The new comers rejuvenate and inject new blood into the community.

  • They are not coming (38100 one-way permit holders in 2004).

  • Impact on the labour force: postponement of the retirement age.

  • Successful experience in Shanghai about 30% are newly migrants



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Replacement Migration: parents, 1991 – 2004 slow down ageing


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Healthy Population parents, 1991 – 2004

  • Life-long health promotion and practice

  • Healthy life style.

  • Prevention: to prevent unnecessary health cost: for example, smoking and attempted or completed suicides


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To remove the obstacles for getting married and bearing babies

Economic and Financial impact is a real concern.

  • A community consensus is needed.

  • How much the community is willing to pay for it? A higher tax?


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Discussions babies

  • Social Responsibility and Individual choice?

  • Someone has to pay for it. No free lunch!


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Time to Act Now babies

Analogy of a clock:

  • Second arm (politics)

  • Minute arm (economic policy)

  • Hour arm (demography policy)


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Thank you babies


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