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WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Rob McNamee 678 – 393 - 9702 [email protected] Axford Consulting LP . This Web posting is free for the personal use of persons who paid to attend the 2008 WTUI conference. Distribution to non-registered attendees is prohibited.

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WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008

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Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Rob McNamee 678 – 393 - 9702

[email protected]

Axford Consulting LP

This Web posting is free for the personal use of persons who paid to attend the 2008 WTUI conference.Distribution to non-registered attendees is prohibited.

If your business has a need for market data or forecasting for turbomachinery industry, please contact:

Mark Axford 713 – 802 – 9654

[email protected]

WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Axford Consulting LP

GT Market Review of 2007

WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Before We Begin…..

How many WTUI attendees feel that GT orders for 2007 were: - Higher than 2006 ? - Lower than 2006 ?

Axford Consultants LP April 2008 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

GT Orders Summary - 2007

  • Worldwide orders up 44% from 2006 from 48,827mw to 70,121

  • Extraordinary level of orders from Saudi and other Middle East countries

  • US Gas Turbine orders down 12% : 2006 = 6598 mw 2007 = 5801 mw

Axford Consultants LP April 2008 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 1975 - 2007

.

> 3mw unit size 1975-1989

>10mw unit size 1990-2007

Reported Orders

MW

Prepared by Axford Consultants LP April 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

GT orders –Middle East Only 1980 - 2007

.

> 3mw unit size 1975-1989

>10mw unit size 1990-2007

Reported Orders

MW

Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Gas Turbines – US Only 1980 - 2007

.

> 3mw unit size 1975-1989

>10mw unit size 1990-2007

Reported Orders

MW

Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Gas Turbines – US Only 1980 - 2007

.

> 3mw unit size 1975-1989

>10mw unit size 1990-2007

Reported Orders

MW

2000 -2001 bubble truncated for clarity

Since 2003 Mid EastGT orders 3X of US

Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Gas Turbines – US Only 2002 - 2007

.

Reported US Orders

>10mw GT unit size

MW

40% Orders annual growth in orders since 2003 mkt bottom

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

2007 Worldwide GT Orders

70121 mw

MiddleEast

Africa

Asia

N. Amer

Australia

Latin Amer

Europe

Prepared by Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 2003 -2007

.

Reported Orders

>10 MW Unit Size

MW

27%

26%

36%

46%

49%

44%

Axford Consulting LP Apr08

Data Source: McCoy Power Reports


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 2003 -2007

.

Aeros vs Frames

MW

12%

10%

10%

88%

90%

34%

90%

90%

Axford Consulting LP April 2008

Data Source: McCoy Power Reports


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 2003 -2007

Aeros vs Frames

.

Less than 60 mw Only

MW

57%

60%

49%

43%

40%

51%

Axford Consulting LP Apr 2008

Data Source: McCoy Power Reports


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

2007 Worldwide Frame GT Orders

61715 mw (Up 31% from 2006)

Africa

MiddleEast

Asia

N. Amer

Australia

Latin Amer

Europe

Prepared by Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

N. Amer Frame GT Orders - 2007

Axford Consultants LP April 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

2007 Worldwide Aero GT Orders

8407 mw (up 52% from 2006)

Australia

Asia

Europe

Africa

Latin Amer

MiddleEast

30%

N. Amer

Prepared by Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

N. Amer Aero GT Orders -2007GE Wins 1506 MW

Axford Consultants LP April 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

N. Amer Aero GT Orders -2007Pratt & Rolls win 1422 MW

Axford Consultants LP April 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Year 2007 - US Market ( 5801mw )Gas Turbine Orders by Unit Size

2889

2024

50%

888

35%

15%

0

10 - 25mw

125 - 254 mw

26 - 55mw

56 - 125mw


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Combined

Simple

Year 2007 - US Market ( 5801mw )GT Orders -Simple vs Combined Cycle

41%

59%

Axford Consultants LP April 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Year 2004 - 2007 - US MarketGT Orders - Simple vs Combined Cycle

Higher Gas Price = More Simple Cycle

Simple

Combined

Axford Consulting LP April 2008 Data Source: McCoy Power Reports


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

So what’s the forecast for turbine orders

in 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Reported Orders

>10 MW Unit Size

Gas Turbines – 2008 Axford Forecast

.

US -5%, Non US - 10%

Axford Consulting LP April 2008 Data Source: McCoy Power Reports


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

Things To Think About

  • Will US Recession reduce Elec Consumption ? - Axford Opinion – Yes

  • Can Gas Turbines compete with: - “Clean Coal” with heavy subsidy - Mandated Wind & Bio fuels programs

  • What if Plug-In Elec cars win 10 - 20% share

  • Will Carbon Tax help or hurt GT business - In the US ? - In the rest of world ?

  • Will US Gas Prices Stay stabile at $ 9 - 10 ? - On Btu Basis $100 barrel oil = $ gas

Axford Consultants LP April 2008


Comparative cost of various fuels

Comparative Cost of Various Fuels

What if Natural Gas price was $ 20 ?

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Axford Consultants LP April 2008


Siemens westinghouse 501d fleet 221 units thru 2010

That’s all Folks!

Axford Consulting Lp April 2008


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