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Sex Offenders Who Are They & Can We Predict if They Will Reoffend. Anna C. Salter, Ph.D. Agenda. Types & Motivations of Sex Offenders How They Get Access to Kids Risk Assessment: Predicting Recidivism Impact of Treatment Vs. Sanctions . Child Molesters. Why Do Some Men Molest Children?.

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Sex offenders who are they can we predict if they will reoffend l.jpg

Sex OffendersWho Are They &Can We Predict if They Will Reoffend

Anna C. Salter, Ph.D.


Agenda l.jpg
Agenda

  • Types & Motivations of Sex Offenders

  • How They Get Access to Kids

  • Risk Assessment: Predicting Recidivism

  • Impact of Treatment Vs. Sanctions


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Child Molesters

Why Do Some Men Molest Children?


1 deviant arousal pattern l.jpg
1. Deviant Arousal Pattern

Sexually attracted to children

Otherwise responsible

E.g., teachers, priests, youth leaders, doctors, businessmen, etc.


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Successful Predators

Charming

Responsible in Other Ways

Do Favors

Genial, Affable, Likeable


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Sexually Attracted to Children

Q. “How old were you when you began to have fantasies about children?

A. About 13 or 14

Q. How often would you say during masturbation you had sexual fantasies involving children?

A. All the time.”


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Sexually Attracted to Children

Q. How much of the time do you fantasize about boys?’’

A. I’d say about half the day. It’s when I’m not doing anything.”


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Minister Who Molested Grandchildren

“I suppose that being a devout religious person, if I had believed with all of my mind and heart that the earth was going to open up and swallow me into hell, I would have went ahead and done it anyway.”


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“People often confuse issues of traits of character with issues of . . . the type of sexual interest an individual has.

Persons who may be compulsive pedophiles, for instance, may obey the law in other ways, may be responsible in their work, may have concern for other persons.”

(Berlin, quoted in Knopp, 1984, p. 9)


2 antisocial motivation l.jpg
2. Antisocial Motivation issues of . . . the type of sexual interest an individual has.

Criminals

Variety of other crimes

Want sex; violate anybody’s rights


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“I plain and simple needed to get some good, hot, kinky sex but resented having to rely on the generosity of women. . . My days of begging . . . Were over.”

(Athens, 1997, p. 10)


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Antisocial sex but resented having to rely on the generosity of women. . . My days of begging . . . Were over.”

“The way she moved made my rocks shake. I had to have her. So I pretended to look for my dog. . . She was polite but bitchy, you know. . . She goes, yea like get lost. Now I don’t give a f. . ., you know. I reach for her neck. F. . . you, I goes and drag her inside the f. . . shed.”

(Stevens, 2001, p. 40)


3 loneliness l.jpg
3. Loneliness sex but resented having to rely on the generosity of women. . . My days of begging . . . Were over.”

Relate poorly to adults

Intimidated by women

Children accepting, nonjudgmental,

open-hearted


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4. Incest Offenders sex but resented having to rely on the generosity of women. . . My days of begging . . . Were over.”

Deviant Arousal Pattern Some

Antisocial Some

Victims of Opportunity Yes

Entitled Yes


Incest offender l.jpg
Incest Offender sex but resented having to rely on the generosity of women. . . My days of begging . . . Were over.”

“I had it in my head that she’s not just a girl, but she’s mine and always will be mine.”

(Gilgun & Connor, 1989, p. 250)


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Incest Offender sex but resented having to rely on the generosity of women. . . My days of begging . . . Were over.”

“My home is my castle, and I’ll do what I goddamn please.”


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Child Molesters sex but resented having to rely on the generosity of women. . . My days of begging . . . Were over.”

1. Deviant Arousal Pattern

2. Anti-social Attitudes & Beliefs

(Includes Psychopaths)

3. Emotional Loneliness

4. Incest Offenders


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Thinking Errors of Nonsadistic Sex Offenders sex but resented having to rely on the generosity of women. . . My days of begging . . . Were over.”

  • She wanted me to do those things to her.

  • She enjoyed it as much as I did.

  • She was just a little flirt.

  • He knew what he was doing.

  • He came on to me.


5 sadists l.jpg
5. Sadists sex but resented having to rely on the generosity of women. . . My days of begging . . . Were over.”

Sexually Aroused

By

Pain, Suffering, Terror and Humiliation


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Sadistic Behavior sex but resented having to rely on the generosity of women. . . My days of begging . . . Were over.”

A man shot off a teenage girl’s arm for the sexual thrill it gave him.

( Abel, 1981)


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Sadistic Behavior sex but resented having to rely on the generosity of women. . . My days of begging . . . Were over.”

A serial killer would smother his wife with a plastic bag until she passed out and then would have sex. He beat her with belts and burned her with cigarettes.

(Groth, 1979, p. 48)


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Sadistic Behavior sex but resented having to rely on the generosity of women. . . My days of begging . . . Were over.”

A rapist of thirteen-year girls preferred to anally rape them on cement floors so that the rapes would be more painful.

(Abel, 1977)


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“At no point during the incident was I aware of any anger towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”

( Groth, 1979)


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Sadistic Offenders towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”

5% of sex offenders


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6. Status Offenders towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”

18 year-old with 15-year-old girlfriend


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Status Offenders towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”

  • No violence or threats

  • No conning or manipulation

  • Girlfriend within 3 years of age

  • No pattern of dating younger girls


Typology of rapists l.jpg
Typology of Rapists towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”

  • Opportunistic

  • Pervasively Angry

  • Vindictive

  • Sexual

    Sadistic

    Non-Sadistic

    (Knight, 1990)


Who reoffends more child molesters or rapists knight prentky 1999 l.jpg
Who Reoffends More: towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”Child Molesters or Rapists(Knight & Prentky, 1999)


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How They Find Victims towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”


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Jobs towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”

Teaching

Ministry and Priesthood

Medicine

Sports

Camp Counselors

Children’s Choirs

Any Jobs with Children


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Leisure Activities towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”

Mentoring/Tutoring

Coaching

Babysitting

Dating Child’s Mother

Boy Scouts, etc.

Special Olympics

Local Church Choirs

Youth Groups

Any Volunteer Activities InvolvingChildren


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Vocational & Avocational Access towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”

Not Geographic


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Living Near Schools? towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”


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Legislative History of Residence Restrictions towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”

  • In 2004, 14 states had residence restrictions, most commonly 500 – 1000 feet.

  • By 2006, 21 states had residence restrictions

  • Hundreds of local jurisdictions nationwide have passed zoning laws, often 2500 feet (about one-half mile).


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Does proximity to schools towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”increase recidivism?

N = 130

Colorado

Recidivists & Nonrecidivists

Scattered Geographically

Recidivists Lived No Closer to Schools that Non-recidivists


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Offenders Living Closer to a School towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”

Were Not More Likely to Reoffend


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Does proximity to schools towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”increase recidivism?

N = 329

Minnesota 2003

High Risk Offenders

Follow-up 3 – 6 Years

13 Recidivists

  • None of the offenses occurred in or near schools.

  • 2 offenses in parks: Offenders drove there


Does proximity to schools increase recidivism39 l.jpg
Does proximity to schools towards the victim, although I now recognize a resentment or jealousy of girls.”increase recidivism?

Minnesota

April 2007

N = 224 sexual recidivists

Released between 1990 and 2002

“Not one of the 224 sex offenses would likely have been deterred by a residency restrictions law.”


Slide40 l.jpg

“It doesn’t matter where a sex offender lives if he sets his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”


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Consequences his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

N = 109

Fort Lauderdale, FL

2,500-foot zoning laws.

Live farther away from social services &

mental health treatment 40%

Live farther away from employment 57%

Live farther away from family support 62%

Average number of days spent homeless

or staying with someone 62

Levenson (2006), in progress.


Slide42 l.jpg

  • Homeless his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • Unemployed

  • Without social services

  • Without mental health treatment

  • Without family support

    Less or more likely to reoffend?


Impact l.jpg
Impact his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

“Sex offenders with positive support systems

reoffended and violated . . . their probation

less often than those who had negative or no support .”

(Colorado Department of Public Safety, 2004).


Impact44 l.jpg
Impact his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

Sex offenders with stable employment and social relationships had

lower recidivism rates

than those without jobs or significant others

(Kruttschnitt et al., 2000).


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Iowa his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • 2000-foot exclusion zone passed in 2002.

  • Upheld by Iowa Supreme Court and 8th Circuit Court of Appeals (2005)


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Impact in Iowa his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • Within six months, the number of sex offenders across the state whose whereabouts were unknown nearly tripled

    (Davey, 2006; Rood, 2006).


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Impact in Iowa his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • Approximately 6,000 sex offenders and their families were displaced by the law, and many reported becoming homeless

    (Rood, 2006).


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Iowa County Attorneys Assn (2006) his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

as more sex offenders become homeless and transient, law enforcement authorities are less able to monitor their day-to-day activities

(Iowa County Attorneys Association, 2006)


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Victims groups oppose residence restrictions his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • National Alliance to End Sexual Violence

    “Sex offenders who continually move or become homeless as a result of residency restrictions are more difficult to supervise and monitor, thereby increasing the risk of re-offense….”


National alliance to end sexual violence l.jpg
National Alliance to End Sexual Violence his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • “Because residency requirements cause instability, which may increase the risk of re-offense, NAESV opposes residency restrictions. ”


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Victims groups oppose residence restrictions his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • California Coalition Against Sexual Assault

    Warned against

    “a general migration of sex offenders to rural communities who simply cannot monitor them, while on the other hand, the remainder of offenders in urban areas will simply go underground, failing to register.”


Risk assessment l.jpg
Risk Assessment his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

Can we tell

Who is likely to reoffend?


Hanson meta analysis recidivism l.jpg
Hanson Meta-Analysis his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Recidivism

Follow-up = 5-6 Years

  • New Sex Offense 13.7%

  • Any Offense 36.9%

    (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004)


Slide54 l.jpg

Follow-up Period his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”


Slide55 l.jpg

Follow-up Period his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”


Long term sex offense recidivism l.jpg
Long Term Sex Offense his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Recidivism

Follow-up = 15 to 30 Years

  • New Sex or Violent Offense 42%

    (Hanson, Steffy et al., 1993)


Recidivism l.jpg
Recidivism his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

Follow-up = 25 Years

N FR

Rapists 136 39%

Child Molesters 115 52%

(Prentky et al., 1997)


Long term sex offense recidivism58 l.jpg
Long Term Sex Offense his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Recidivism

Prior Sex Offenses

Boy Victims

Never Married

77%

(Hanson, Steffy et al., 1993)


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Clinical vs. Actuarial Assessment his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

r

Clinical Assessment .10

Actuarial Assessment .46

(Hanson & Bussiere, 1998)


Accuracy of clinical and actuarial risk prediction l.jpg
Accuracy of Clinical and Actuarial Risk Prediction his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

r


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Continuum of Risk his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

Low Risk High Risk


Continuum of risk62 l.jpg
Continuum of Risk his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

Low Risk High Risk

7% - 12%

51% - 62%


Known offenses vs reconviction l.jpg
Known Offenses Vs Reconviction his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

Study Arrests

Doren (1998) 27%-47% +

Song & Lieb (1995) 50% +


Known sexual assaults vs criminal charges l.jpg
Known Sexual Assaults his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Vs. Criminal Charges

2.4 times

(Marshall et al., 1990)


Known offenses vs caught recidivism l.jpg
Known Offenses his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Vs Caught Recidivism

5 years Follow-Up

Caught Average Marshall

13% 17% - 19% 31%


Rrasor scores recidivism rates l.jpg
RRASOR his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Scores & Recidivism Rates

Score 5 Years 10 Years

0 4.4 6.5

5 49.8 73.1

(Hanson, 1997)


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Most Offenses by High Risk Offenders his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

70% Offenses by 5% of Offenders

(Gene Abel)


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Juvenile Crime his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

Offenders Crimes

8% 70%

(Beuhring, 2002; Howell, 1995; Kelley et al., 1997)


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Number of Adjudications & Recidivism his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

Adolescent Sex Offenders

3 year Follow-Up

No. N Sex Recidivism

1 452 6.2%

2 118 26.3%

3 37 35.1%

4 + 29 41.4

(Epperson, 2005)


Rapid risk assessment if sex offender recidivism rrasor l.jpg

Rapid Risk Assessment if Sex Offender Recidivism his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” RRASOR

7 Samples

N = 2,592

(Hanson, 1997)


Rapid risk assessment for sexual offense recidivism l.jpg
Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • Prior Sexual Offense

  • Victim Gender

  • Relationship to Victim

  • Age at Release

    (Hanson, 1997)


Rrasor l.jpg
RRASOR his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • Prior Sexual Offenses

    None 0

    1 Conviction; 1 to 2 Charges 1

    2 - 3 Convictions: 3 to 5 Charges 2

    4 or More; 6 or More Charges 3

    (Hanson, 1997)


Rrasor73 l.jpg
RRASOR his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • Age at Release

    25+ 0

    25- 1

    Victim Gender

    Only Females 0

    Any Males 1


Rrasor74 l.jpg
RRASOR his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • Relationship to Victim

    Only Related 0

    Any Non-Related 1

    (Hanson, 1997)


Rrasor75 l.jpg
RRASOR his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

Score 5 Years 10 Years

0 4.4 6.5

1 7.6 11.2

2 14.2 21.1

3 24.8 36.9

4 32.7 48.6

5 49.8 73.1

(Hanson, 1997)


Rrasor76 l.jpg
RRASOR his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

Score 5 Years 10 Years

0 4.4 6.5

5 49.8 73.1

(Hanson, 1997)


Static99 l.jpg
Static99 his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

RRASOR items

  • Number of Previous Charges & Convictions

  • Age at Release

  • Relationship to Victim

  • Boy Victims


Static9978 l.jpg
Static99 his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • Number of Sentencing Occasions

  • Index Non-sexual Violence

  • Previous Non-sexual Violence

  • Ever Lived with a Partner 2 Years

  • Non-Contact Sex Offense Conviction

  • Stranger Victims


Scores versus recidivism l.jpg
Scores Versus Recidivism his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

Score Risk N(%) 15 Years

0,1 Low 257(24%) 10%

2,3 Med/Low 410 (38%) 18%

4,5 Med/High 290 (27%) 38%

6+ High 129 (12%) 52%


What do they measure l.jpg
What do They Measure? his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • Likelihood of reoffending?

  • Severity of reoffending?

  • Timing of reoffending?

  • Circumstances fostering reoffending?


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Who is More Dangerous? his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • Exhibitionism 90%

  • Child Molestation 30%

  • Killing a Child 20%


What works l.jpg
What Works? his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”


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Characteristics of Studies his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

117 Studies

N = 442,471

(Smith, 2002)


Impact of incarceration on recidivism l.jpg
Impact of Incarceration on Recidivism his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

N = 268,806

68% American Studies

No Change in Recidivism

or Slight Increase in Recidivism

(Smith, 2002)


High quality vs low quality studies l.jpg
High Quality vs. Low Quality Studies his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

High Quality

  • Random Assignment

  • Comparison Group Designs

    Age

    Criminal History

    Antisocial Values

    (Smith, 2002)


Random assignment studies l.jpg
Random Assignment Studies his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

2 Studies

Incarceration Vs Community

Slight increases in recidivism

(Smith, 2002)


Incarceration more or less l.jpg
Incarceration: More or Less his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

N = 107,165

90% American Studies

Mean Time for More: 31 Months

Mean Time for Less: 13 Months

Slight Increase in Recidivism

(Smith, 2002)


Impact of length of incarceration l.jpg
Impact of Length of Incarceration his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

Difference in Time Mean Effect Size

Between More & Less (Weighted for Sample

Groups Size)

  • < 6 Months -.01

  • 7 to 12 Months -.02

  • 13 to 24 Months .03

  • > 24 Months .06

    (Smith, 2002)


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Impact of Treatment Vs. Sanctions his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” (Andrews, 1998)


Impact of appropriate vs inappropriate treatment andrews 1998 l.jpg
Impact of Appropriate Vs. Inappropriate Treatment his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” (Andrews, 1998)


Atsa collaborative study l.jpg
ATSA Collaborative Study his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

N = 43 studies

  • All treated between 1965 – 1999

  • 80% treated after 1980

  • 9,316 subjects

  • 23 Institutional programs

  • 16 Community programs

  • 3 both


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ATSA Collaborative Study his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Follow-up Periods

  • Range 1 month to 31 years

  • Median 46 months


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Recidivism his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • Reconviction 8

  • Rearrest 11

  • Broad 20


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Hanson Meta-Analysis his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Recidivism

Follow-up = 4 - 5 Years

  • New Sex Offense 13%

  • Any Offense 37%

    (Hanson & Bussiere, 1996)


Atsa collaborative study recidivism data l.jpg
ATSA Collaborative Study his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Recidivism Data


Atsa collaborative study recidivism data96 l.jpg
ATSA Collaborative Study his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Recidivism Data


Atsa collaborative study recidivism data97 l.jpg
ATSA Collaborative Study his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Recidivism Data


Current vs noncurrent l.jpg
Current vs Noncurrent his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • Current means 1) Treatment still offered in 1999

    2) All Cognitive Behavioral since

    1980

  • Noncurrent had no impact on sexual or general

    recidivism


Atsa collaborative study recidivism data99 l.jpg
ATSA Collaborative Study his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Recidivism Data


Atsa collaborative study recidivism data100 l.jpg
ATSA Collaborative Study his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Recidivism Data


Atsa collaborative study recidivism data101 l.jpg
ATSA Collaborative Study his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.” Recidivism Data


When does treatment work l.jpg
When Does Treatment Work? his mind on reoffending… he can just get closer by walking or driving.”

  • Adults vs adolescents Equally effective

  • Institutional vs Community Equally effective


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