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Developing Human System Modules for Regional Climate Models Jessie Cherry [email protected] Peter Larsen [email protected] Presentation Outline “Old school” approach to the study of Human Dimensions (HD) of Climate Change; Shortcomings with the “old school” approach;

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Developing Human System Modules for Regional Climate Models

Jessie Cherry

[email protected]

Peter Larsen

[email protected]


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Presentation Outline

  • “Old school” approach to the study of Human Dimensions (HD) of Climate Change;

  • Shortcomings with the “old school” approach;

  • Some examples of HD modeling;

  • Direct integration of HD into regional climate modeling (i.e., “new school”);

  • Implementation potential for particular sectors



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Past Treatment of Human Dimensions

  • Second (or third-order) modeling runs;

  • Limited use of downscaled physical projections;

  • Few examples of model comparison/testing platforms and input/output sensitivity analyses;

  • Weighted index, Delphi, and/or subjective approaches are often employed; and

  • Stakeholder feedback often occurs later on in the development process, if at all.


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Examples of Modeling HD: Alaska

HD Project: “Estimating Risk to Alaska Public Infrastructure from Climate Change” (Larsen et al, 2008)



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Examples of Modeling HD: California

HD Project:

“Estimating Risk to California Energy Infrastructure from Climate Change” (Sathaye et al, 2009)



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Past/Current HD Modeling Concerns

The “old school” de-coupled HD approach:

  • creates a strong disconnect between the physical modeling and the climate impacts communities;

  • occasionally ignores stakeholder needs for timely policy and decision making;

  • often misses important feedbacks between human agents and the climate system; and

  • makes it difficult to compare and test alternative modeling techniques.


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Some Arctic Human Dimensions….

  • Resource Development

  • Hazard Response

  • Freshwater Supply

  • Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geothermal)

  • Commercial and Sport Fishing/Hunting

  • Public and Private Infrastructure

  • Tourism

  • Subsistence Harvest

  • Marine Transport

  • Human Health


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A “New School” HD Modeling Proposal….

  • Develop Human System Modules directly into the Arctic System Modeling platform;

  • Make these modules portable and transparent between different regional models;

  • Encourage international collaboration;

  • Focus on producing multiple socioeconomic impact measures; and

  • Facilitate model testing, scenario development, stakeholder feedback, etc.


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Some Thoughts on Climate/HD Model Interactions

  • Need not occur at each model time step (e.g., hours vs. planning decades);

  • One or two-way coupling may be appropriate depending on the system (e.g., GHG emissions); and

  • Socioeconomic data collection and dissemination will need to be substantially improved;

  • Quantifying coupled model uncertainty is very important, but difficult to communicate.


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Some Thoughts on Communicating Uncertainty in HD Impacts…

Source: Larsen et al (2008)

Three different AOGCMs

Monte-carlo Simulation (varied inputs)


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More Thoughts on Uncertainty in HD Impact Estimates…

Harvard Economics Professor Martin Weitzman noted in a seminal 2008 paper that fat-tailed structural uncertainty about climate change, coupled with a lack of information about high-temperature damages, can potentially outweigh the influence of discounting in a cost-benefit analysis framework.


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What are the Challenges?

  • Training and supporting interdisciplinary researchers may be the biggest challenge;

  • Pan-Arctic data collection and management is another major challenge;

  • Stakeholder engagement is time-consuming and expensive;

  • Some research disciplines are further along in the evolution of systems modeling; and

  • User-friendly “decision support tools” will need to be developed in close collaboration with stakeholders.


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Why include HD modules directly into an ASM?

  • There are (some) appropriate existing regional HD models;

  • We have the computing resources;

  • We can attempt to minimize miscommunications between the physical and social scientists across the Arctic;

  • It’s interesting and policy-relevant work at the frontiers of research!!!



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Additional Information

  • International Arctic Research Center at UAF: www.iarc.uaf.edu

  • Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP): www.uaf.edu/accap/

  • State of Alaska Climate Change Materials: www.climatechange.alaska.gov

  • E.O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: www.lbl.gov

  • Goldman School of Public Policy: www.gspp.berkeley.edu

    Note: This presentation includes personal views of Peter Larsen.


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Climate Change Planning

Walsh & Chapman:

PRISM downscaled multi-model projections of temperature and precipitation for AK under various scenarios of Greenhouse Gas emissions


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Integrated Assessment

Definition: any model which combines scientific and socio-economic aspects of climate change primarily for the purpose of assessing policy options for climate change control (Kelly & Kolstad, 1998)


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Integrated Assessment Modeling

McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005


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Integrated Assessment Models

McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005


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Example of Human System Module

Goal is to be model independent; work with CCSM and other models/ couplers

Cherry



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New Scientific Methodology?

Funtowicz & Ravetz, in Ecological Economics, 1991


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Arctic human dimensions

  • Oil and Gas Module (spill transport)

  • Rural Resilience (wind power potential)

  • Coastal Erosion (evolving coastline)

  • Freshwater (hydropower, water supply)

  • Marine Fisheries (Bering ecosystem)

  • Marine Transport (ice cover trajectories)


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BSIERP

Lower Trophic Level

Ecosystem Model

Predation

Losses

Euphausiids

Detritus

14 component Model

NPZD-Benthos

Neocalanus

Pseudocalanus

Large

microzooplankton

Small

microzooplankton

Small

Phytoplankton

Large

Phytoplankton

Iron

Nitrate

Ammonium

Benthic Detritus

Benthic

Infauna

Benthos


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BSIERP

BSIERP Vertically Integrated models

Economic/ecological model

FEAST Higher trophic level model

NPZ-B-D

Lower trophic level

ROMS

Physical Oceanography

Nested models

BEST

Climate scenarios


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Infrastructure

Impact of Climate Change on Infrastructure study done for Alaska by Peter Larsen and collaborators


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Depr.Matrix

Others

Climate Projections

APID

Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas

Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas

DNR

DRM

UAF GI

NCAR

Denali

$

DCCED

Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas

Tables

Flow Chart of Model Processes

Graphs



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Wind Farm Parameterization for WRF

Adams & Keith

Modification of the MYJ PBL scheme

Similar work being done commercially by 3TIER, AER, others






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AEA Energy Atlas, 2007

Hydropower AEA



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Example of Climate-Related Decision Support

https://rsgis.crrel.usace.army.mil/aedis/


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