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Post-Retirement Risks. Longevity Family issues Health and long-term care Business and public policy Investment. 1. Longevity Risk. Outliving your resources Problems created when death occurs Death of a spouse First-to-die life insurance. One Way to Plan?. Use life expectancy to plan

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Post-Retirement Risks

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Post retirement risks l.jpg

Post-Retirement Risks

  • Longevity

  • Family issues

  • Health and long-term care

  • Business and public policy

  • Investment


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1. Longevity Risk

  • Outliving your resources

  • Problems created when death occurs

  • Death of a spouse

    • First-to-die life insurance


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One Way to Plan?

  • Use life expectancy to plan

    • Many expect to outlive average

    • Many underestimate what is average

  • Add 5 or 10 years to the average life expectancy

  • Annuitize certain assets to provide lifetime income


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Longevity Risk

Source: Unisex Table V


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Annual Percentage of DeathsPopulation of 65 Year Olds

Life Expectancy

Source: 2000 Individual Annuity Mortality table


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Life Probabilities at Age 65

%

Age

Source: Society of Actuaries RP-2000 Table


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The Uncertainty of Life

  • Highly uncertain variable

  • Consider probabilities based on certain ages

    • Not: “20 years at age 65”

    • But rather: “a 63% chance at age 65 that one spouse will live to 90”


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Implications for Longevity Risk

  • More uncertainty

    • Order of death for a couple

    • Women tend to outlive men

    • Changes in life expectancy of survivor

      • Immediate financial needs

      • Overall capital needs

  • Flexibility: update longevity estimates as time passes


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Managing Longevity Risk

  • Social Security

  • Annuities

  • Reverse mortgages


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2. Family Issues

  • Divorce and remarriage

  • Unexpected death of the retiree or an adult child with dependents

  • Job loss of the retiree, a spouse, or an adult child


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Other Family Matters

  • Care of a grandchild or other dependent

  • Elder care for retiree parents

  • Paying for college while in retirement


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3. Healthcare and Long-Term Care Risks

  • Costs

    • Medicare, insurance premiums and coverage, prescription drugs, LTC

  • Geographic resources

    • Caregivers, facilities

    • Ability to live alone

  • COBRA

  • Advance directives

    • POAs, living wills


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LTC Needs & Issues

  • Assisted living facilities

    • Average yearly cost: $28,548

  • Nursing home facilities

    • Average yearly cost: $57,000 to $66,000

  • Home health care

    • Average hourly cost: $18.12

  • Trading premiums for expected benefits

Source: MetLife 2003 Survey


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Types of LTC Insurance

  • Indemnity policy – pays fixed benefit amount

  • Expense-incurred – reimburses for actual expenses up to a fixed amount

  • Integrated policy offers a total dollar amount toward different types of LTC services

  • Daily benefit amounts for nursing home care: $50 to $300 per day


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LTC Policy Features

  • Definition of benefit triggers

  • Inflation protection

  • Coverages

    • ADLs

    • Adult day care

    • Assisted living

    • Nursing home coverage: at least 1 year of coverage

    • Coverage for Alzheimer’s

    • Respite care for the caregiver

  • Tax treatment: premiums qualify for 7.5% medical expense deduction


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Housing Needs

  • Downsizing for early retirees

  • Relocation issues

  • Retiree expectations

  • Home as an asset

    • Natural disasters (e.g., earthquake or flood)


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4. Business & Public Policy Risk

  • Employer bankruptcy

  • Employee benefits reduced or eliminated

  • Insurer solvency

  • Employment risk

    • Physical ability

    • Job availability

  • Diversification

    • Employer stock concentrations

    • Annuity insurer diversification


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Legislative Changes

  • Social Security

    • Later start ages for boomers

  • Medicare


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Tax Rate Change Risk

  • Rate/rule changes

    • Income tax

    • Estate tax

  • Imagine making a retirement income plan in 2000

    • Then EGTRRA 2001

    • Sunset provisions

      Need to monitor proposals


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Historical Income Tax Rates

%

Year

2004 top rate: 35%


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Historical Income Brackets

$

Year

2004 top rate: 35%


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More Income Tax Rate Variables

  • “Assumed” lower tax rate in retirement

    • Match the tax bracket to the retiree’s income need

  • Bracket change due to death of a spouse

    • Lower expenses for the surviving spouse

    • From married filing joint to single


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Married filing joint (MFJ)

$70,000 = 25% income tax bracket

If the surviving spouse needs only $50,000, then would be 15% bracket

Single

$70,000 = 28% income tax bracket

If the surviving spouse needs only $50,000, then would be 25% bracket

Change in Filing Status


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The Best Tax Income

  • Capital gains

  • Which spends better: $1 of ordinary income or $1 of capital gain income?

  • The challenge: overcoming the “I don’t want to spend principal” mindset


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Ordinary income tax

$142,857

1% interest annually ($1,428.57)

Lose 30% ($428.57) to ordinary income tax

$1,000 left after taxes

Capital Gain Tax

Same $142,857 grows by 1% to $144,286

Sell $1,428.57 after one year

Lose 15% ($214.29) to capital gain tax

$1,214.28 left after taxes

An “Ordinary” Illustration


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5. Investment Risk

  • Inflation risk

  • Interest rate risk

  • Market risk


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Inflation Risk

  • Not of major concern right now

  • How you define it matters

  • Any fixed income stream is exposed

  • Interest in products with cost of living adjustments is low at present


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Historical Inflation Rates by Year

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


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Rolling Period Historical Inflation Rates

Source: Ibbotson Associates


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Defining Inflation for a Retiree

  • One rate: CPI

  • By expense type

    • Healthcare

    • Food/utility

    • Home value

    • College

    • Others


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Inflation by Components of CPI

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


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When Do You Want Your Risk?

Source: Nick Murray, The New Financial Advisor. Used with permission. For broker/dealer use only.


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Strategies for Handling Inflation Risk

  • Control expenses over time

  • Certain resources are/can be protected

    • Social Security

    • I bonds

    • Variable annuities

    • COLA annuities

    • Real estate and/or REITs

    • Stocks


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Interest Rate Risk

  • Fixed income assets exposed

  • Interest rates are currently low by historical standards

  • Reinvestment rate risk

    • Call risk

  • But low rates are good news and good timing for some income products


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Historical Interest Rates

Source: Federal Reserve


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Market Risk

  • Retirees have a high degree of concern with short-term volatility

  • Investment return variability

    • Ibbotson 5-, 10-, 15- and 20-year rolling periods


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150%

5-year holding periods

125%

20-year holding periods

100%

Compound annual return

75%

50%

25%

12.1%

10.2%

5.5%

3.8%

0%

-25%

-50%

-75%

Reduction of Risk Over Time

1-year holding periods

1926–2002

Smallcompany stocks

Largecompanystocks

Governmentbonds

Treasury

bills

Each bar shows the range of compound annual returns for each asset class over the period 1926–2002.

This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3/1/2003. © 2003 Ibbotson Associates, Inc.


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Spot the Pattern


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Market Risk Going Forward

  • Future expectations

    • Equity risk premium

  • Predictions & debates


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A Deterministic Quiz

Q. If you had $100,000 averaging 6% per year, and you withdrew 6% per year, what would your balance be at the end of 10 years?

a. $100,000

b. $71,531

c. $0

A. Depends on two factors:

1. Are there any years with negative returns?

2. When do the losses occur?


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$100,000 in Hypothetical Investment with 1st Year Loss


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Recovery Returns

  • Average RoR required to get back to $100,000 (while still making withdrawals) is

    50% in 1 year

    14.1% in 8 years

    11% in 18 years


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Lessons Learned

  • Returns aren’t linear in the securities markets

  • Major asset allocation changes (more price/market risk) may be necessary to make up for a bad year early in the distribution years


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Retiring in Different Decades

  • Retiree has $500,000 portfolio in either

    • All stocks, or

    • All bonds, or

    • 60/40 stocks/bonds

  • 5% withdrawal first year, indexed for actual inflation

  • Some years are better than others…


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1960


Slide47 l.jpg

1970


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1980


Slide49 l.jpg

1990


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More Lessons Learned

  • The sequence of returns matters—a lot!

  • Linear assumptions (x% per year for 25 years) are unrealistic and dangerous to a portfolio’s health

  • We can know the past with precision, but the future is unknown

  • Monte Carlo simulations


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Asset Allocation

  • The accumulation years are different from the distribution years.

    • Conventional wisdom: go more conservative

    • For a “die broke” mentality, go conservative

    • For an inheritance mentality, go more aggressive

      • More time

      • Multigenerational investment policy


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Investor Characteristics

  • Age

  • Investment experience

  • Risk tolerance

  • Personal financial factors

  • Risk capacity


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Managing Portfolio Risk

  • Rebalancing

  • Diversification


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Techniques for Measuring Risk: Pros and Cons

  • Deterministic: single outcome; linear

  • Scenario: changes in some variables = what if?

  • Stochastic: range of outcomes; Monte Carlo simulation

  • GIGO


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Monte Carlo Basics

  • Considers multiple risk variables at one time

    • Returns, volatility, correlation, return order, longevity

    • Roll the dice

  • Produces portfolio values and probabilities

  • Monte Carlo illustrated: The iMulator game(courtesy of Financeware)


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The iMulator Game

  • Get into small groups of six

  • One person is the scorekeeper, aka the financial advisor, who uses the Scorecard

  • Another person is the mortician, who uses the Mortality Table

  • Another person is the market, who uses the Growth Factor Table

  • Two people are the dice; you will be choosing numbers between 1 and 6 randomly and independently

  • One person is the client!


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Wealth Forecasting With Cashflows: MC Simulation

$100,000,000

Portfolio Balance

90%

$10,000,000

75%

$1,000,000

$100,000

10%

25%

50%

$10,000

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Age


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Pros

Uses multiple variables

Shows probabilities

Attempts to deal with the unexpected

Easy to see results of variable changes

Cons

Can be interpreted as certainty

Historical assumptions

Differences in probabilities are difficult to grasp

Can’t predict very unusual events

Monte Carlo Pros & Cons


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