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An Integrative Approach to Assess Externalities: Combining Ecological-Economic Modelling and Choice Experiments – the Context of On-Shore Wind Energy Supply

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An Integrative Approach to Assess Externalities: Combining Ecological-Economic Modelling and Choice Experiments– the Context of On-Shore Wind Energy Supply

Cornelia Ohl*, Jürgen Meyerhoff#* Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig# Berlin Institute of Technology (TU Berlin)

Grant No

01UN0601A, B


Overview l.jpg
Overview

  • The Project

  • First Results

  • Outlook


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The Project: Background

Not in my backyard

CO2-emmissions and

running out of resources

positive

negative

Global Climate Change

Impacts on Nature

Windenergy


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The Project: Goals

  • Quantifying externalities of wind energy supply with

    the help of Choice Experiments (CE) and an

    Ecological-Economic Modelling (EEM) procedure.

  • Identification, Evaluation and Visualisationof

    alternative land use options.

  • Support site selection for the installation of wind

    power plants


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The Project: Modelling procedure

Data on:

Wind speed,

Impacts on nature (esp. collision risk red kite) and humans (noise, shadow etc.).

3 representative wind mills

(2MW, 3 MW, 6 MW)

For each technology calcula-tion of: energy output, land consumption, collision risk red kite etc.

Display of GIS – Maps

Visualisation of e.g.

Energy output (here:

classified according to

German EEG)

red – low energy outputgreen - high energy output

(1km grids)


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The Project: Identification of sites

Green: Potential sites for a specific wind mill erection

Red: Suitable sites from a nature conservation point of view

Grey:

Sites electedby regional planning bodies


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The Project: Choice Experiments

  • Characteristics of wind energy production are defined as attributes of environmental changes

  • Focus is on:

    • Height of the turbines

    • Seize of a wind farm

    • Impacts on local wildlife (collision risk red kite)

    • Distance to settlement areas

    • Cost of allocation patterns (surcharge monthly power bill)

  • Setting options presented to German public

  • Survey includes statements concerning attitudes toward wind power generation, etc. and Choice Experiments

    • Two representative studies (West Saxony; Northern Hesse)

    • Nationwide online-survey (Accessible: June to July 2008)


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First Results: Online-Survey Presentation of Attributes and levels


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First Results: Online-Survey Self selection bias

  • Respondents were gained through press releases and announcements on various web pages

  • Thus, sample is not representative for German population, e.g.:

    • only 20% women in sample (nationwide around 51%)

    • 44% of respondents buy green energy (nationwide around 5%)


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First Results: Online-Survey Consistency of choices

Programm A presents status quo for wind power production in 2020

Each respondent was presented 4 choice cards during interview plus a fifth card with a dominant alternative


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First Results: Online-Survey Choice of dominant alternative

  • Respondents were randomly presented one of two choice cards with a dominant alternative, i.e., all attributes were at least as good as in the other alternative and at least one was better


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First Results: Online-Survey Effect of attribut level - Conditional logit

  • Apart from “Ab_150” all variables are significant at 5% level

  • Apart from “Hei_110” and “Hei_150” signs are as expected, e.g., price: “prei” is

  • negative

  • Negative sign for “Hei_110” and “Hei_150” indicates that people do not prefer a

  • move from wind mills of 200 meter heightto smaller ones


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First Results: Online-Survey Implicit prices based on CL

  • Implicit price (IP) indicates WTP for movement from one attribute level to another

  • IP is given by:


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Outlook: Evaluation of Sites

Integration of Survey Results in the EE-Model

Goal: Sustainable Site Selection

Natur impactgreen = low

Social impactgreen = low

Energy outputgreen = high

S e a r c h f o r c o m p r o m i s e !


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Outlook: Site Selection with MULBO

Compromise 1: Equality of goals

Red:

Wind mill erection (Typ I) not allowed by legislation

Green:Potential sites for wind power generation as selected by MULBO

Blue:

Sites selected by regional planning bodies


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Thank you for attention!

Websites: http://www.ufz.de/index.php?de=14638

http://www.landschaftsoekonomie.tu-berlin.de/8359.html


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