The impacts of Climate Change on economic activity and employment Brussels 21 February 2007 Ana Belén Sánchez Climate Ch

1. The impacts of Climate Change on economic activity and employmentBrussels 21 February 2007Ana Belén SánchezClimate Change and EnergyISTAS 10/06/2014

2. Aims • Analysis of climate change itself on economic activity and employment on different sectors: • Agriculture/forestry/fisheries • Tourism • Finance/insurance • Health • Infrastructure • Energy • 3 regions: Iberian Peninsula, Germany and Scandinavia

3. Methodology • Information sources: • Extensive literature review: to explore past and current discussions about the topic. • Series of interviews with stakeholders at European level. About the threats or the new opportunities for sector.

4. Agriculture (+) Beneficial for agriculture, max. 2ºC, in high altitude countries (expansion of cultivated areas northwards) (+) New employment opportunities in the emerging field of biofuels (Adaptation measures) (-) Countries with a warmer climate (Mediterranean countries) will be disadvantaged, because the reduction of water supply, heat stress, higher rainfall intensity. Transition costs and the movement of population that is required are often ignored

5. Forestry (-) • Overall the impacts are not expected to be significant, but at local level could be considerable. • Increase the risk of fires • Interviewees: • Negative net impact CC balance in terms of plant growth • No potential fertilization effect due to the increase CO2 concentration • One of the major threats: the outburst of atypical diseases • Changes in the length of seasons could affect the ratio of seasonal and temporary employees

6. Fisheries (-) • A displacement of fish species is to be expected, as well as plankton and algae and therefore the employment will be affected • Marine diversity is decreasing already • An alteration in the thermohaline circulation will have ungraspable consequences for marine life • Interviewees • Extremely difficult to evaluate the effect in the employment • The productivity is expected to be negatively affected by an increase of climate variability

7. Tourism • (+) Cool destinations become more attractive • (+) The temperature increase could increase the trips outside the usual season • (-) The variation of tourist flows will affect regional economies • (-) The tourist tend to shorten their holidays • (-) Sea level rise and erosion threaten infrastructures and some resort must be relocated • (-) Water scarcity could become an issue and conflicts with other users could be exacerbate • (-) The winter tourism will be affected

8. Finance/Insurance • Employment: • (+) Positive influence through a potential increase in demand for insurance products and services • Need of specific types of professional knowledge (risk and damage assessment) • (-) Some properties may simply become uninsurable against certain types of risks • (-) New losses in life and health branches • (-) And weather-related events in other world regions will also affect European insurers • (-) Non-linear relationship between climatic parameters and damages, they increase more than proportionate rate. • (-) Side-effects of extreme weather events are rarely taken into consideration in analyses

9. Health (-) • CC is likely to increase heat-related issues and decrease cold-related ones in Europe • Mortality due to heat stress will increase Physical and psychological impacts of the extreme weather-related events, specially floods • Outdoor working conditions could be worsened in summer and more deaths of heatstroke • There could be indirect health effects due to social, economic and political disruptions as a result of changes in regional food yields and water supplies • CC could trigger refugee flows, increasing infectious diseases, malnutrition injury and violent death

10. Infrastructure (-) • A 25 cm sea level rise would result in the loss of 1015 km2 of land in the EU, but will affect a big quantity of people, 68 million, who mostly live in the low-lying coasts areas. • And the coastal protection may not be cost-effective in some areas • Empirical data show an increasing tendency in the frequency of severe floods in recent decades

11. Energy • Correlation between energy consumption and climatic conditions • (+) Energy demand for heating will decrease but will increase for cooling, and will be bigger, thus it will be exacerbate the peak in electricity demand with adverse consequences for distribution networks and production capacity • Less precipitation=less hydropower (South) • Low river water flows during hot and dry summers represent an issue for the cooling of thermal power plants • Some of the energy systems infrastructure are at risk

12. Conclusion • Even moderate climate change will influence economic activities and employment • Very little information about the direct effects of CC on employment= study gap • Most of the interviewees are conscious of the fact that CC will directly and indirectly affect their activities, but their potential magnitude result difficult to estimate • A moderate, gradual climate change will cause a mix of positive and negative impacts on economic activity and employment, with substantial disparities among regions in Europe • It is needed information with regard to CC issues in the context of economic activity and employment in particular.

13. Thanks for your attention Ana Belén Sánchez ISTAS/CC.OO. absanchez@istas.ccoo.es