Origins of Operations Research: Science at War

1. Origins of Operations Research:Science at War E. P. Visco evisco4@cfl.rr.com Orlando Chapter of INCOSE 17 March 2011 [with credit to Michael W. Garrambone]

2. Agenda • Earliest Beginnings & Men of Science • From the Civil War to the Great War • The Birth of Operations Research • World War II & Korea • Post War-Korea • Insights and Ideas

3. Things That Are Younger Than Gene • The Great Depression, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War • Lawrence’s Lady Chatterley’s Lover & Ravel’s Bolero • Mickey Mouse, Penicillin, Yugoslavia • Audrey Hepburn and Sophia Loren(1934), Sean Connery (1930); Regis Philbin (1931); Leonard Nimoy • The Empire State Building, Rockefeller Center, the Folger Library, the Jefferson Memorial, & the National Gallery of Art • Color television & commercial television • Hammett’s The Maltese Falcon & The Thin Man • The Star Spangled Banner as the US national anthem • The George Washington Bridge, the Lincoln Tunnel, the Golden Gate Bridge, Hoover/Boulder Dam, Heathrow & JFK airports • Jet airplanes, helicopters, & US Navy aircraft carriers • Baseball all-star games (1933) & the Baseball Hall of Fame • Social Security (1935), minimum wages for women, & the 40-hour work week • Life magazine, Nylon, the ballpoint pen, electronic computers, transistors, chips, & magnetic recording tape • Withholding income taxes, the atomic bomb & guided missiles • The United Nations, NATO, & the Pentagon

4. The Whole Story • OR/OA are old • Combat analyst was first; some work was at Hq • Early: weapons, transport, communications (things) • Later tactics, concepts of operation, organization • Dominance of Hq analysis

5. From the Dawn of War and Science • Diades (c. 330 BCE) • Archimedes (213-211 BCE) • Bacon (1248) • Leonardo da Vinci (1452-1519) • Niccoló Tartaglia (1500-1557) • John Napier (1550-1617) • Benjamin Franklin (1775) • US Civil War (balloon) • The Great War (CW, tank)

6. What Was The Beginning? • WW II? • WW I? • Diades? • Archimedes? • 20th Century OR authors • Morse & Kimball, 1950 • Hillier & Lieberman, 1967 • Wagner, 1975

7. Operational ScienceThe Great War • Lanchester • The Equations: Bah! Humbug! • Aircraft in Warfare, 1912-1916 • Edison • Naval Consulting Board • >40 ‘ideas’: no impact • George Patton, Jr. • No combat experience • Casualty potential of rifle ammunition • A. V. Hill • Anti-aircraft gunnery, 1914-18

8. Many Men and Women • Adolf Hitler • Chamberlain • H. E. Wimperis • A. P. Rowe • Robert Watson-Watt • Benito Mussolini • Winston Churchill • Marconi • F. A. Lindemann • A. V. Hill

9. European Situation Early 1930s • Nazis become second largest political party in Germany • Hitler becomes Chancellor • Hitler becomes Dictator • Hitler becomes Fuhrer • Hitler introduces military conscription • Sep 1930 • Jan 1933 • Mar 1933 • Aug 1934 • Mar 1935

10. The British Cause for Alarm • Trends not going well in Europe • Germany is rattling swords • Germany is building a bomber fleet • “The bomber always gets through”Stanley Baldwin, 10 Nov 1932 • Limited resources for defense • Cities in England are: • High density population centers • High density industrial centers

11. Home Land Defense European shoreline 1,044 miles Total shoreline 2,275 miles Kill/Defend Box 300 x 600 miles Channel Distances 20 - 250 miles

12. The Committee for the Scientific Study of Air Defense H. E. Wimperis: Scientific Advisor Air Ministry A. P. Rowe: Research Scientist Secretary Mission To consider how far advances in scientific and technical knowledge can be used to strengthen the present methods of defense against hostile aircraft

13. Criteria for Committee Selection • Have recognition as an eminent scientist • Be of strong character • Have capacity for making decisions • Have “natural sympathy for and identification with, “military men” • Able to provide a mutual give and take between serving officers and scientists E. V. Appleton--Greatest English expert on propagation of Radio Waves

14. Lord P. M. S. Blackett 1948 Nobel PrizePhysics Sir A. V. Hill1922 Nobel PrizeMedicine The Tizard Committee Conservative (Establishment) Military Pilot Orthodox(Conservative)Army Officer Anti-Aircraft Gunnery Radical (Anti-fascist) Naval Officer 28 Jan 1935

15. Sir Henry T. Tizard1885-1959 • Education: Westminster & Oxford (Rutherford’s Student) • Fellow of the Royal Society (Physics) • Secretary, Dept of Scientific & Industrial Research • Rector, Imperial College of Science and Technology (1929) • Chairman of the Tizard Committee (28 Jan 1935) “The best scientific mind that … England ever applied ... to war” C. P. Snow, Science and Government, 1960

16. P. M. S. Blackett(1897-1974) (Patrick Maynard Stuart) • Education: Royal Naval College, University of Cambridge • WW II, chief advisor on “operational research” British Navy • Nobel Prize (physics) 1948 for research in cosmic rays • Professor of physics at the Imperial College of Science and Technology of the University of London (1953-65). • Author, Atomic Weapons and East-West Relations (1956) and Studies of War (1962) “The British father of Operations Research”

17. An Inquiry to Science • From: Air Ministry • To: The (National Physical Laboratory) • Is it possible to create some form of “death ray” using a radio beam to disable remote targets? • From: The Radio Research Lab (National Physical Laboratory) • To: Air Ministry • No, but we may be able to detect aircraft using radio methods

18. Able to provide a mutual give and take between serving officers and scientists Air Marshal Dowding Professor Tizard

19. The Pairing of Teams • Bawdsey Station (radar research and testing) • Scientists & engineers • Serving officers • Finding blips on the screen • Biggin Hill Experiment (Fighter Intercept) • Serving officers • Scientists & engineers • Finding the target • Voice from the “Box” • “Tizzy Equations” • Fighter Command OR Section

20. Chain Home Radar (1935) Air Ministry Experimental Stations (AMES 1)

21. Early Command & Control Operations in the Filter Room (plotting, filtering, telling) Operational Control at Fighter Command

22. Situation of the Late 1930’s • Mar 1936 Germany takes Rhineland • May 1936 Mussolini takes Ethiopia • Sep 1938 Hitler appeased at Munich • Oct 1938 Germany takes Sudetenland • Mar 1939 Germany takes Czech. • Sep 1939 Germany takes Poland

23. Improvements in Defense (1939) • 20 Stations • RAF trained at Bawdsey station • See A/C 15,000’, 100 miles • Fighter intercept from Biggin Hill • Chain Home Low • Airborne Radar

24. Combat Air Strengths, Summer 1939

25. Results of the Tizard Committee • Determined the range, bearing, and elevation of non- cooperative targets • Provided friendly signal marks for our own aircraft • Introduced concept of information fusion and ground control intercept • Gave aircraft the ability to hunt in black space • Made possible submarine detection at night • Intro “blind” navigation, provided “magic eye” for A/C • Improved accuracy for air defense weapons • Created the radio fuze • Made effective use of the fighter force (Battle of Britain, beginning 10 July 1940)

26. London Paid a terrible price

27. Results of the Battle of Britain 1,733 915

28. Patrick Maynard Stuart Blackett(1897-1974) • WWI Battles • Falkand Island • Jutland • Education: Royal Naval College, University of Cambridge • WW II, chief advisor on “operational research” British Navy • Nobel Prize (physics) 1948 (cosmic rays) “The British Father of Operations Research”

29. Operational Research • “Scientists at the Operational Level” “… very many war operations involve considerations with which scientists are specially trained to compete, and in which serving officers are in general not trained.” • Note on Certain Aspects of the Methodology of Operational Research “In the course of repeated operations … most of the possible variations of tactics will be effectively explored ... derivatives will eventually be discovered and ... improved tactics will become generally adopted.”

30. Blackett’s Influence at Bomber Command • Limited # bombers • Land bombing • Against submarines • Confrontation

31. Coastal CommandAnalyses • Open Research on • Targets • Weapons • Tactics • Equipment • Strategy • Effectiveness of Air Attacks Short Sunderland

32. Blackett’s Circus (10)at Anti Aircraft Command • Three physiologists • Two mathematicians • One Army officer • Two mathematical physicists • One surveyor • One general physicist

33. Contributionsto Anti Aircraft Command • Gun-Laying Radar • Apportionment • Maintenance • Training • Togetherness • Effectiveness London

34. P. M. S. Blackett’s OR Thoughts • For Military--you have to think scientifically about your own operations • For Scientists--sound military advice only comes when the giver convinces himself that if he were responsible for action, he would act so himself

35. Scope of Operational Research • “Clearest lessons of war experience” “… really big successes of operational research groups are often achieved by the discovery of problems which had not hitherto been recognized as significant.” Recollections of Problems Studied • “How can OR help” • “Operations research groups can help to close the gap between the new instrument or weapons as developed in the R&D establishments and its use in the actual conditions of war.”

36. Birthing in the US • Mine Warfare ORG • Degaussing @ Pearl, 7 Dec 41 • Wargaming • Mine-laying • Anti-Submarine Warfare ORG • Early emphasis on Atlantic • Army Air Forces OA • 26 Sections • 250 analysts • Office of Field Service, OSRD • Emphasis on Pacific • Operation Starvation

37. Adoption of OR by US Forces • Navy was first • MAJ Leach, AAF • “Hap” Arnold • AAF • Eighth Air Force

38. First AAF OA Section • 8th Bomber Command, Oct 42 • Chief: John Harlan • Others: Arps, Alexander, Tuttle, Youden, Robertson • Reported to Gen Eaker • Worked for CoS • Access to all information • “How can I put twice as many bombs on my targets?”

39. Some Projects & Accomplishments • Improved bombs on target • Bomb on lead bombardier • Radar countermeasures • Improved estimates of force requirements • ‘Position Firing’ for aerial gunners • Stabilization of dust on African air fields • Operation STARVATION

40. DMPI 1000’ Bombing Tactics Problem: Three bombing (sighting) techniques: 1. drop on group leader, 2. drop on squadron leader, 3. independent sighting Question: What is the “best” technique? Technique Percent On Group Leader On Squadron Leader Independent

41. DMPI 1000’ Bombing Tactics Problem: Three bombing (sighting) techniques: 1. drop on group leader, 2. drop on squadron leader, 3. independent sighting Question: What is the “best” technique? Technique Percent On Group Leader 24 % On Squadron Leader 11.8 % Independent 8.3 %

42. 9th Army Air Force • Nick Smith, junior analyst • Rail cutting algorithm • “No Ball” targets

43. Analyst’s Notebook

44. Notes

45. More Notes

46. No More Notes (after this one)

47. Some Results of Rail Cutting:Impact on Overlord • 2nd SS Panzer Division: 17 days/450 miles • Battle Group, 275th Infantry Division: 3 days/30 miles + 3 more days to reach front • 2 Infantry Battalions arrived on bicycles

48. Shipbuilding : Merchant Ships or Escort Ships • Problem: Increase movement of war time supplies: limited shipbuilding capacity • Question: Build more merchant or more escort ships • Each escort ship saves 2 to 3 merchant ships per year • Faster convoy speed decreases convoy losses • Increased convoy size decreases ship losses significantly • Air escort protection decreases submarine effectiveness

49. Operation Starvation, 1945 • LCDR Ellis Johnson, MWORG: “Mines are Weapons of Strategy” • ADM Nimitz & MG LeMay (21st Bomber Command) • 21,000 sea mines laid; 4323 sorties • 5.7% of B-29 sorties • 961 Japanese ships damaged or sunk (2 million tons)

50. Operations Research US Successes • Convoy Protection • Submarine Search • Surface Ship Detection • Denial of Sea Lanes Navy Army Air Force Army • Bomb Accuracy • Bomb Selection • Pursuit Tactics • Radar Employment • Jungle Warfare • Amphibious Opns • Artillery Accuracy • Ballistics OperationsResearchGroup OperationsAnalysisSections Individual Analysts OSRD