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CINC Scores as measures of power concentration, 1816-2000






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CINC Scores as measures of power concentration, 1816-2000.
CINC Scores as measures of power concentration, 1816-2000

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CINC Scores as measures of power concentration, 1816-2000

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"International finance has become so interdependent and so interwoven with trade and industry that ... political and military power can in reality do nothing.... These little recognized facts, mainly the outcome of purely modern conditions (rapidity of communication creating a greater complexity and delicacy of the credit system), have rendered the problems of modern international politics profoundly and essentially different from the ancient.“ – Norman Angell, 1910

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Average IGO Memberships / State 1816 - 1910

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% States Democratic

1816 - 1913

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Per Capita GDP By Region 1820 - 1913

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World Trade Dependence 1816 - 1913

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Interdependence?

  • Exports as % of GDP

    • 1913: 13%

    • 1992: 14%

  • FDI as % of GDP

    • 1914: 11%

    • 1993: 11%

  • British-German trade was high

    • Lloyd’s insured Germany’s ships!

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US Foreign Policy Before World War I

Rhetoric vs. Reality

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I. Analysis of Rhetoric

  • Rhetoric affects perception of reality  often means rhetoric determines reality

  • Tools of Rhetoric

    • Audience analysis – Every speech or writing has a target in mind. Who is the target?

    • Elements of Persuasion -- Repetition, Association (esp. analogies), Omission

    • Framing – Choice of words causes people to evaluate facts in a different context (guerillas, insurgents, terrorists, rebels, or freedom fighters)

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C. Foreign Policy Rhetoric

  • Audience

    • Domestic – Supporters, Opponents, and Fence-Sitters

    • International – Allies, Enemies, and Neutrals

  • Elements

    • Use of historical analogies – some analogies dominate others (e.g. Pearl Harbor, Vietnam)

    • Repetition of key themes…

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II. Debates Over American Foreign Policy Before World War I

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The First Debate (1780s – 1820s): Jeffersonians vs Hamiltonians

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The First Debate (1780s – 1820s): Jeffersonians vs Hamiltonians

Note that different views of American domestic politics led to different foreign policies!

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B. The Second Debate (1830s-1850s): Manifest Destiny vs Sovereign Equality

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B. The Second Debate (1830s-1850s): Manifest Destiny vs Sovereign Equality

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C. The Third Debate (1870s-1910s): Imperialism vs Anti-Imperialism

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Imperialism: The Proud View

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Imperialism: The Practical View

  • “Map of the Orient showing Manila, P.I. as the Geographical Center of the Oriental Commerce Field”

  • Published By Republican National Committee, 1900

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C. The Third Debate (1870s-1910s): Imperialism vs Anti-Imperialism

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Anti-Imperialists: Questioning Anglo-Saxon Superiority

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Anti-Imperialists: Will the World Corrupt America?

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III. Beyond Division: Recurring Frames of US Foreign Policy Rhetoric

  • American Exceptionalism: Are we different from all the other countries?

    • “City on a Hill” as an image: New England as a Puritan model to Christianity (1630)

    • Washington’s Farewell Address: Avoid entanglement with the corrupt Old World

    • Monroe Doctrine: Different systems

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Monroe Doctrine (1823)

“The political system of the allied powers is essentially different in this respect from that of America…. we should consider any attempt on their part to extend their system to any portion of this hemisphere as dangerous to our peace and safety.”

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III. Beyond Division: Recurring Frames of US Foreign Policy Rhetoric

  • American Exceptionalism: Are we different from all the other countries?

    • “City on a Hill” as an image: New England as a Puritan model to Christianity (1630)

    • Washington’s Farewell Address: Avoid entanglement with the corrupt Old World

    • Monroe Doctrine: Different systems

    • Used by both sides: support or oppose expansion

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Anti-Imperialists: Will the World Corrupt America?

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B. Nonaggression: Are we a peaceful people?

  • Declaration Of Independence: Emphasis on Pattern of Grievances

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Declaration of Independence: Text

Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations... To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

(A list of 27 grievances)

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury.

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B. Nonaggression: Are we a peaceful people?

  • Declaration Of Independence: Emphasis on Pattern of Grievances

  • Declarations of War – even when not attacked!

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1898: McKinley asks Congress for an ultimatum to Spain over Cuba

“The spirit of all our acts hitherto has been an earnest, unselfish desire for peace and prosperity in Cuba, untarnished by differences between us and Spain and unstained by the blood of American citizens…”

“The present condition of affairs in Cuba is a constant menace to our peace…”

“In the name of humanity, in the name of civilization, in behalf of endangered American interests which give us the right and the duty to speak and to act, the war in Cuba must stop…”

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B. Nonaggression: Are we a peaceful people?

  • Declaration Of Independence: Emphasis on Pattern of Grievances

  • Declarations of War – even when not attacked!

  • Key Phrases

    • “Peaceful people”

    • “Slow to anger”

    • “Patient suffering”

    • “Repeated injury”

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C. Benevolence: Are we selfless moral crusaders?

  • Mexican-American War, 1847

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Mexican-American War (1847)

  • Belief that Mexicans wanted (US-ruled) liberty instead of (independent) despotism

  • Aftermath and payment: “We take nothing by conquest…Thank God.”

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C. Benevolence: Are we selfless moral crusaders?

  • Mexican-American War, 1847

  • Strong’s “Our Country” Bestseller, 1885

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Strong, 1885:

“This race has been honored not for its own sake for the sake of the world. It has been made . . . powerful not to make subject, but to serve; . . . free not simply to exult in freedom, but to make free; exalted not to look down, but to lift up.”

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C. Benevolence: Are we selfless moral crusaders?

  • Mexican-American War

  • Strong’s “Manifest Destiny” writings

  • McKinley and Acquisition of the Philippines

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McKinley Refuses Filipino Independence:

“When I next realized that the Philippines had dropped into our laps I confess I did not know what to do with them. . . . I went down on my knees and prayed Almighty God for light and guidance … And one night late it came to me this way…there was nothing left for us to do but to take them all, and to educate the Filipinos, and uplift and civilize and Christianize them, and by God's grace do the very best we could by them, as our fellow-men for whom Christ also died.”

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Filipino War of Independence (1898-1902)

US suffers 4324 dead, rebels suffer 20,000 dead. Civilian deaths are more than 200,000.

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C. Benevolence: Are we selfless moral crusaders?

  • Mexican-American War, 1847

  • Strong’s “Manifest Destiny” writings, 1885

  • McKinley and Acquisition of the Philippines

  • Wilson’s 14 points

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Wilson’s Fourteen Points Speech

“What we demand in this war, therefore, is nothing peculiar to ourselves. It is that the world be made fit and safe to live in; and particularly that it be made safe for every peace-loving nation which, like our own, wishes to live its own life...”

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D. Summary of US Foreign Policy Rhetoric

  • America is exceptional: Light unto the world

  • America is not aggressive: Slow to anger

  • America is selfless: Seeks only the best for others

    Example: Clinton Speech

    Well, are we?


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