the exchange rate system in hong kong
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The exchange rate system in Hong Kong. Linked exchange rate system. Hong Kong is a……. Trading Centre International Financial & Monetary Centre What is the reason make Hong Kong so Successful? The Linked exchange rate system . History of Exchange Rate System in Hong Kong.

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the exchange rate system in hong kong

The exchange rate system in Hong Kong

Linked exchange rate system

hong kong is a
Hong Kong is a……
  • Trading Centre
  • International Financial & Monetary Centre
  • What is the reason make Hong Kong so Successful?

The Linked exchange rate system

what is linked exchange rate system

What is Linked Exchange rate System?

Currency broad system

Pegged the Hong Kong Dollar to the USD at the rate of 7.80

Two exchange currency markets in HK (Exchange Fund and open market )

ways to fixed the exchange rate at hk 7 8 us 1
Ways to fixed the exchange rate at HK$7.8 = US$1
  • Arbitrage activities
    • Different in the price of a good in different market
    • Buy the product at the lower price market
    • Sell it at the higher price market
  • Two kinds of arbitrage activities in exchange rate system
    • Interest rate arbitrage
    • Currency arbitrage
interest rate arbitrage
Interest rate arbitrage
  • Determined by demand and supply
    • Speculation against HK Dollar
    • Demand for HK Dollar would then decrease
    • HK Dollar would depreciation against USD in open market
    • Domestic interest rate would rise and this would attract back the funds
    • Demand for the HK Dollar would rise
    • Exchange rate would be stabilized
interest rate arbitrage10
Interest rate arbitrage
  • Speculation for HK dollar
  • Demand for HK dollar would rise
  • Exchange rate of HK dollar to US dollar would increase in open market
  • Domestic interest rate would then fall
  • Demand for HK dollar would fall
  • Exchange rate of HK dollar would be stabilized
currency arbitrage
Currency arbitrage
  • Exchange rate of HKD fall in open market
  • Exchange rate fixed in the close market
  • Different of HKD to USD in open market
how does bankers gain profit
How does bankers gain profit?
  • Sell USD for HK Dollar in open market
  • Sell HK Dollar for USD in Exchange Fund
  • Exchange rate of HK Dollar for USD would be stabilized
why the linked exchange rate system important to hk
Why the linked exchange rate system important to HK ?
  • Suits the needs of a highly open economy such as Hong Kong’s
  • Enables Hong Kong to adjust to shocks without the damage and volatility of a sudden currency collapse
why the linked exchange rate system important to hk14
Why the linked exchange rate system important to HK ?
  • Provides Hong Kong with a firm monetary
  • Reduces the foreign exchange risk faced by importers, exporters and international investors
the effectiveness of the linked is helped by a number of economic attributes enjoyed by hong kong
The effectiveness of the Linked is helped by a number of economic attributes enjoyed by Hong Kong:
  • The structure of Hong Kong economy is flexible and responsive
  • Hong Kong’s banking system is strong and solvent, and well able to deal with the fluctuations in interest rates
the effectiveness of the linked is helped by a number of economic attributes enjoyed by hong kong16
The effectiveness of the Linked is helped by a number of economic attributes enjoyed by Hong Kong:
  • The Hong Kong Government pursues a prudent fiscal policy
  • Hong Kong possesses ample foreign currency reserves for supporting the Linked Exchange Rate System
advantages of the linked exchange rate system
Advantages of the Linked Exchange Rate System
  • Provides a stable, predictable and well understood monetary system
  • Suited to Hong Kong’s highly external and flexible economy
  • To its position as an international financial centre
advantages of the linked exchange rate system18
Advantages of the Linked Exchange Rate System
  • Enables Hong Kong’s economy to adjust to external shocks without the damage
  • Volatility of a sudden currency collapse
  • Provides Hong Kong with a firm monetary anchor
  • Reduces the foreign exchange risk
advantages of the linked exchange rate system19
Advantages of the Linked Exchange Rate System
  • The Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has remained stable in the face of various shocks
  • Unaffected by the 1987 stock market crash
advantages of the linked exchange rate system20
Advantages of the Linked Exchange Rate System
  • Stable Hong Kong’s economy in the face of external shocks without the damage and volatility of a sudden currency collapse
advantages of the linked exchange rate system22
Advantages of the Linked Exchange Rate System
  • the price level of Hong Kong has been exceptionally stable:
  • There had been an increase more than 10% in price level five times (1973, 1974, 1979, 1980 and 1981) a year within the twenty years
disadvantages of the linked exchange rate system
Disadvantages of the Linked Exchange Rate System
  • Ties Hong Kong to US monetary policy
  • The economy of Hong Kong is directly affected by the monetary policy of US and US Dollar
  • The business cycle of Hong Kong and US might not be indifferent
disadvantages of the linked exchange rate system24
Disadvantages of the Linked Exchange Rate System
  • In 1998, Hong Kong was facing a depression and a high unemployment rate
  • Hong Kong Government might increase the money supply of Hong Kong Dollar
  • Reduce the price of goods in Hong Kong
disadvantages of the linked exchange rate system25
Disadvantages of the Linked Exchange Rate System
  • To increase the export and decrease imports
  • Theoretically, flexible exchange rate system should be used
disadvantages of the linked exchange rate system26
Disadvantages of the Linked Exchange Rate System
  • But, US Dollar was appreciating
  • Restricted Hong Kong government to change the money supply
  • Obstructed the speed of recovering in Hong Kong
  • A great matter when Hong Kong and US are in alien business cycles
disadvantages of the linked exchange rate system27
Disadvantages of the Linked Exchange Rate System
  • Reduces Hong Kong\'s ability to deal with external shocks
    • HKMA surrenders its power to adjust the territory\'s monetary policy to the U.S. Federal Reserve
    • The currency crisis in Southeast Asia in 1998, could lead to excessive financial market volatility whenever there are speculative attacks on the Hong Kong dollar
should the exchange rate system be changed to float
Should the exchange rate system be changed to float?
  • For:
    • The HKMA can get back the independence of monetary policy
      • HKMA can use suitable policy to stabilize the Hong Kong economy
      • The Hong Kong monetary policy has to follow that of US under the linked
      • Use the same monetary policy may cause serious problems
should the exchange rate system be changed to float30
Should the exchange rate system be changed to float?
  • Against:
    • The economy in Hong Kong may greatly fluctuate
    • Price level fluctuated greatly in 1970s – 80s
    • Lots of money flows in Hong Kong everyday
should the exchange rate system be changed to float31
Should the exchange rate system be changed to float?
  • HKMA does not have necessary monetary instruments
    • The policy of controlling money supply
should the exchange rate system be changed to float32
Should the exchange rate system be changed to float?
  • The necessary conditions of changing the system
    • HKMA has the full necessary monetary policy
    • Do not let the market entirely freely operate
    • Notice the change suddenly
conclusion
Conclusion
  • The exchange rate system of Hong Kong has been improving
  • Stabilize the Hong Kong economy
  • Brings a basis of being an international financial centre
  • There will not be a change in the system in the following few years
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