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New projections of the ethnocultural composition of the Canadian population with the Demosim microsimulation model. Éric Caron Malenfant, André Lebel, Laurent Martel Lisbon, April 2010. Rapid increase in the ethnocultural diversity observed through last censuses

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New projections of the ethnocultural composition of the Canadian population with the Demosim microsimulation model

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New projections of the ethnocultural composition of the Canadian population with the Demosim microsimulation model

Éric Caron Malenfant, André Lebel, Laurent Martel

Lisbon, April 2010


Rapid increase in the ethnocultural diversity observed through last censuses

Immigrants and diversity highly concentrated in some large urban areas of Canada

Impacts on policy planning led, in 2005, to the publication of Population projections of visible minority groups in Canada, 2001-2017

Context


In 2007, new projections requested by three federal departments responsible of programs related to

Employment Equity

Multiculturalism

Labour market integration

Fight against racism and discrimination

Goal : provide an overview of what could be the ethnocultural composition of the Canadian population in 2031

Goal of the project


General overview of Demosim, the microsimulation model used for the projections

Main projection results related to the future ethnocultural diversity of Canada

Outline


Overview of DemoSim : contents and functioning


It is a microsimulation population projection model in which

individuals are projected one by one

each event occurs at the individual level

Microsimulation allows to project a large number of characteristics an to use them as determinants of events

The Demosim model


Starts with the complete 2006 census microdata base (20% sample)

Model is at the individual level (no family nor household level)

Is built to integrate assumptions on components of population change

Is conceived to project the demographic and ethnocultural composition of the population

Is programmed with MODGEN

Some specificities of DemoSim


Main characteristics included in the model:

Place of residence (33 metropolitan areas, provinces, on-off Indian reserves)

Age

Sex

Generation status : 1st (foreign-born), 2nd (children of immigrants), 3rd or more

Place of birth

Religious denomination

Visible minority group

Mother tongue

Highest level of schooling

Labour force participation

Aboriginal identity

Registered Indian Status

Auxiliary variables are also included

Contents of Demosim


Main events simulated :

Births, including intergenerational transfers

Deaths

Internal migration

Immigration

Emigration

Change of highest level of schooling

Change in marital status

Change of religion over the life cycle

Change in labour force participation

Departure of children from parental home

Each event is generated through a module in Demosim

Modules of Demosim


Main data sources :

Censuses of population

Population estimates

Administrative data

Vital statistics

Longitudinal Administrative Database

Citizenship and Immigration Data

Survey data

General Social Surveys (GSS)

Ethnic diversity survey (EDS)

Labour force survey (LFS)

Modules of Demosim


The results presented here come essentially from the medium growth scenario :

TFR = 1.7

Immigration level = 7.5 immigrants / 1000 inhabitants

Composition of immigration based on 2001-2006

Life expectancy reached in 2031 : females = 86.6; males=83.1

Internal migration : based on 1996, 2001 and 2006 censuses

Scenarios


Ethnocultural composition of Canada from 2006 to 2031 : key findings


Towards a high proportion of foreign-born persons in Canada

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031


From an European to an Asian foreign-born population

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031


Rapid increase of the proportion of people belonging to visible minority groups among the Canadian-born (reference scenario)

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031


Increasing diversity among the population of Canada

Allophones

Foreign Born

Visible Minorities

Non-Christian Religions

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031


South Asian and Chinese populations could more than double in size between 2006 and 2031

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031


Diversity mostly concentrated among a few CMAs in Canada (proportion of people belonging to visible minority groups)

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031


Toronto-Vancouver-Montréal: different ethnocultural portrait in 2031

%

Visible minority groups by 2031 (reference scenario) in Toronto, Vancouver and Montréal

Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031


Population diversity is expected to :

Continue to increase until 2031 in Canada

To increase within the Canadian-born population

To remain concentrated geographivally

Conclusion


See on the Statistics Canada’s web site – Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (catalogue number 91-551-X)

Contact us :

Eric.Caron-Malenfant@statcan.gc.ca or

Andre.Lebel@statcan.gc.ca or

Laurent.Martel@statcan.gc.ca

Demography Division Clients Service : demography@statcan.gc.ca

To know more about the projections or Demosim


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