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New Local Climate Outlook Products from the NWS. Jay Breidenbach NOAA/National Weather Service. Outline. Introduce the new Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook (L3MTO) Where to find Climate Products on Web Downscaling Methodology Product Benefits and Limitations Future Local Climate Products.

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New Local Climate Outlook Products from the NWS

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New Local Climate Outlook Products from the NWS

Jay Breidenbach

NOAA/National Weather Service


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Outline

  • Introduce the new Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook (L3MTO)

  • Where to find Climate Products on Web

  • Downscaling Methodology

  • Product Benefits and Limitations

  • Future Local Climate Products


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L3MTO Facts

  • The NWS is downscaling/transforming Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) large scale 3-month temperature outlooks to specific locations

  • The L3MTO is:

    • Produced centrally at CPC

    • Disseminated via local WFO climate websites

    • Released simultaneously with CPC’s 3-month outlook product suite (3rd Thursday every month)

    • Produced for approximately 10 sites per WFO, or about 1150 sites nationwide – can potentially increase to ~4,000 sites


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www.weather.gov/boise


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How the Product was Developed

Monthly routine:

y = mx + b (where m = slope and b = y-intercept)

CPC CD forecast

Mean and St. Dev.

Station data

CD data

Regression Analysis

1971-2000

Station Forecast Solution

1994-2003 Trend Significance

Verification filter

Significant?

No

Sufficient

Score?

Yes

No

Yes

Forecast data

Climatology Data

Intercept Adjustment

Bivariate statistics

Regression Coefficients

Distribution and Display

Annual routine:

38.8

33.0

Graph Courtesy of Nicole Kempf


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Outlook Evaluation

  • Access to the outlook evaluation is available on every display of the L3MTO

  • This tool can be used for both the national and the local 3-month temperature outlooks

  • Evaluation statistics can be computed for any combination of 3-month periods and/or years during 1994 to present (2003)

  • Allows the user to select different types of skill scores


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Questions and Feedback

  • The “Questions and Feedback” tab links users to an online form to provide comments

  • User feedback is important, as this product will be evolving based on this feedback.


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The L3MTO is now Available on all WFO Websites

http://www.weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php


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L3MTO Benefits

  • More spatial detail – higher resolution outlooks

  • The L3TMO suite provides multiple presentation formats to accommodate a wide range of users

  • Includes helpful resources for interpretation

  • Available locally, on all WFO webpages; higher visibility


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L3MTO Limitations

  • Does not provide detail about the month-to-month or day-to-day variability

  • It’s a probabilistic forecast

    • more challenging to explain

      Because this product is an extension of the national 3-month outlook to the local level, it will naturally inherit the national product’s skill


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What About Precipitation?

  • Precipitation is a much more complicated element to downscale

  • The precipitation downscaling methodology is under development

  • The product’s webpage design will be identical to the L3MTO design


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ENSO Based Composites

  • Initially will include temperature and precipitation

  • Eventually other parameters will be added – WFOs will choose

  • ENSO based composites will be combined with CPC’s Nino 3.4 SST forecast – if the results are significant, then a forecast will accompany the L3MTO.


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Thank You!!

Please visit any WFO website to view these new products.


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