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Philippines Country. Office. Asian Development Bank. “ The Status of the Philippine Economy” by Günter Hecker. January, 2001. What you hear about the Philippines in the news lately…. Corruption and cronyism are at a high point Governance low Administration not functioning

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Asian development bank l.jpg

Philippines Country

Office

Asian Development Bank

“The Status of the Philippine Economy”

by

Günter Hecker

January, 2001


What you hear about the philippines in the news lately l.jpg
What you hear about the Philippines in the news lately…

  • Corruption and cronyism are at a high point

  • Governance low

  • Administration not functioning

  • Budget in disarray, therefore…

  • IMF has walked out on the Philippines, therefore…..

  • Investors’ confidence going towards the “zero-point”

  • Peso at all time low

  • Stock market at rock-bottom

  • Economy in shambles

  • Project implementation takes twice as long as it should


Gdp growth least affected by the crisis but moderate recovery l.jpg
GDP Growth (%)…least affected by the crisis, but moderate recovery


Inflation rate stayed in manageable levels l.jpg
Inflation Rate (%)….stayed in manageable levels


Current account balance as of gdp has been increasing since the crisis to second place l.jpg
Current Account Balance as % of GDP……has been increasing since the crisis to second place


Exports of goods and services growth exports are growing while l.jpg
Exports of Goods and Services Growth (%)….exports are growing, while….



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Exchange Rate Index(weekly average, last week of June 1997 = 100, $/local currency)…..rates moved together with the other comparator currencies

“J2K”

Effect


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Pesos vis-à-vis Euro

“J2K”

Effect

EDSA2

Effect


Composite stock price index weekly average last week of june 1997 100 l.jpg
Composite Stock Price Index(weekly average, last week of June 1997=100)

“J2k”

Effect

EDSA2

Effect


Npl of commercial banks low but slightly increasing l.jpg
NPL of Commercial Banks…..low but slightly increasing


Gross int l reserves gir less gold vs short term debts us million philippines l.jpg
Gross Int'l Reserves (GIR) Less Gold vs. Short-term Debts(US$ million)Philippines


Gdp per capita development philippines is second to reach thee pre crisis gdp cap level l.jpg
GDP per Capita Development….Philippines is second to reach thee pre-crisis GDP/cap level


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Central Government Fiscal Balance as % of GDP…..in manageable deficit (however not meeting target figures), but…


External debt as of gdp debt level is second highest of region l.jpg
External Debt as % of GDP…debt level is second highest of Region



Tax revenue in of gnp 1991 2000 average amongst lowest in region l.jpg
Tax Revenue in % of GNP(1991-2000 Average)…….amongst lowest in Region



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Revenues Waived due to Tax Incentives in billion Pesos…high portion of special exemptions since 1997



Foreign direct investment in million fdis are dwindling l.jpg
Foreign Direct Investmentin $ million….FDIs are dwindling


Real gross domestic investment growth worrying level of investment l.jpg
Real Gross Domestic Investment Growth……worrying level of investment


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Major Constraints for Philippine Economy

  • Lackluster Growth

  • High Population Growth

  • High Unemployment

  • Asset Ownership Distribution

  • Savings Ratio

  • Governance

  • Low Performance of Agriculture Sector


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Long-term GNP Growth

Marcos Era

Post-Marcos Era


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Population Growth…still has the second largest growth



Unemployment rate highest in region l.jpg
Unemployment Rate (%)…….highest in Region


Savings ratio in the 1990 s philippines is lowest l.jpg
Savings Ratio in the 1990’s….Philippines is lowest




Performance of philippine agricultural sector in of best practice in terms of yields per hectar l.jpg
Performance of Philippine Agricultural Sectorin % of “best practice” in terms of yields per hectar



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Sources of ODA Loans

As of Dec 2000

Total: $ 12.9 B


Status of oda loans as of dec 2000 very unsatisfactory portfolio performance l.jpg
Status of ODA Loansas of Dec 2000……very unsatisfactory Portfolio performance

Total $ 12.9b


Scenario for the philippines l.jpg
Scenario for the Philippines

  • Fiscal deficit will be difficult to close

  • Politically difficult to increase taxes

  • Export may suffer to due slowdown of US economy

  • Agriculture…….next El Niño in sight

  • Direct foreign investment……competition by other countries increasing


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10 Areas of special Attention…..

  • Improve investors confidence

  • Accelerate sector reforms

  • Achieve fiscal consolidation

  • Broaden liberalization of economy

  • Conserve remarkable export performance

  • Exploit competitive advantages

  • Enhance competitiveness

  • Increase investment in rural areas

  • Increase savings rate

  • Improve implementation of ongoing investment


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Philippines Country Office

ADB-HQ, 1st Floor East Zone

Tel: 638-1002

Web: www.adb.org


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PhCO

Thankyou very much


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