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Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. presented by: Michael Moodie. Tuesday, February 29, 2000. University of California. Conventional Arms Control in the Middle East: Conceptual Challenges and An Illustrative Framework

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Slide1 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Conventional Arms Control in the Middle East:

Conceptual Challenges and An Illustrative Framework

Michael Moodie

IGCC

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide2 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building Down

Current vs. Post-Reduction Holdings:

Armored Combat Vehicles

CurrentReductionPost-Reduction

Bahrain

Egypt33603992961

Iran79014776

Iraq29003302570

Israel800010956905

Jordan1149671082

Kuwait1200120

Lebanon2520252

Libya20902091881

Oman51051

Qatar1900190

Saudi Arabia25802822298

Syria37504583292

UAE4810481

Yemen15701311439

7 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide3 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building Down

Current vs. Post-Reduction Holdings:

Armored Combat Vehicles

8 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide4 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building Down

Current vs. Post-Reduction Holdings:

Artillery/Mortars

CurrentReductionPost-Reduction

Bahrain31031

Egypt26533682285

Iran26053612244

Iraq15001951305

Israel702010235997

Jordan1018123895

Kuwait35035

Lebanon27011259

Libya17202281492

Oman78078

Qatar22022

Saudi Arabia86099761

Syria31254392686

UAE28513272

Yemen14921941298

9 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide5 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building Down

Current vs. Post-Reduction Holdings:

Artillery/Mortars

10 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide6 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building Down

Current vs. Post-Reduction Holdings:

Combat Aircraft

CurrentReductionPost-Reduction

Bahrain24024

Egypt49269423

Iran26235227

Iraq31643273

Israel66295567

Jordan11312101

Kuwait45243

Lebanon303

Libya38053327

Oman33033

Qatar18018

Saudi Arabia29339254

Syria63991548

UAE991089

Yemen1011190

11 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide7 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building Down

  • Counting rules per CFE

  • Each state would be required to reduce armament levels by 3% per year for 5 years in order to meet maximum and minimum equipment holdings.

2 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide8 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building DownMaximum Conventional Levels

Tanks3500

ACV’s7000

Artillery4000

Combat Aircraft575

Attack Helicopters100

3 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide9 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building DownMinimum Conventional Levels

Tanks300

ACV’s700

Artillery200

Combat Aircraft30

Attack Helicopters10

4 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide10 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building Down

Current vs. Post-Reduction Holdings:

Tanks

CurrentReductionPost-Reduction

Bahrain81081

Egypt30904192671

Iran70060640

Iraq23003002000

Israel38905393351

Jordan11311251006

Kuwait2000200

Lebanon2400240

Libya2150278182

Oman78078

Qatar24024

Saudi Arabia70060640

Syria46006453955

UAE1310131

Yemen12751461129

5 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide11 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building Down

Current vs. Post-Reduction Holdings:

Tanks

6 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide12 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building Down

Current vs. Post-Reduction Holdings:

Combat Aircraft

12 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide13 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building Down

Current vs. Post-Reduction Holdings:

Combat Helicopters

CurrentReductionPost-Reduction

Bahrain12012

Egypt741064

Iran1001486

Iraq12017103

Israel931281

Jordan24222

Kuwait20218

Lebanon505

Libya45540

Oman000

Qatar20218

Saudi Arabia000

Syria1001486

UAE19118

Yemen20218

13 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide14 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building DownOther Concerns:Missiles

  • Ban unrealistic

  • Must trade-off for artillery

  • New systems trade-off for artillery or aircraft

15 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide15 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building DownOther Concerns:Modernization

  • Allowances for modernization must be included

  • Qualitative improvements must be monitored quantitatively

  • “New types” require greater than one- to-one trade-offs

Modernization: Given the potential impact of

16 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide16 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building DownOther Concerns:Militias

  • Must be part of any conventional agreement

  • Complete disarmament and disbandment required

  • International assistance may be necessary

17 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide17 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Deployment Limitations: Restrictions & Demilitarization

Given the importance of geography in the Middle East the location of armed forces will be as important as overall equipment levels.

18 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide18 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Deployment Limitations: Restrictions & Demilitarization

  • The Golan Heights

  • Demilitarization

  • Deployments limitations to extend beyond the Golan Heights

  • 20km buffer zone

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide19 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Limitations & Reductions: Building Down

Current vs. Post-Reduction Holdings:

Combat Helicopters

14 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide20 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Deployment Limitations: Restrictions & Demilitarization

  • The West Bank

  • Demilitarization

  • Limited defense

  • Early warning stations

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide21 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Verification & Monitoring: A Gradual Approach

  • On-Site & Challenge Inspections

  • Open skies

  • Treaty Monitoring Center

21 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide22 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Verification & Monitoring:A Gradual ApproachOn-Site & Challenge Inspections

  • Initial exchange of information and verification

  • Three inspection phases to be carried out by:

    • (1) Non-party representatives

    • (2) Joint inspection teams

    • (3) National teams

  • Phases last a previously agreed upon length of time

22 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide23 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Verification & Monitoring:A Gradual Approach Open Skies

  • The agreement will be monitored by a third party-operated “open skies”

  • This includes satellite information and possible aerial flights

  • Nature of information to be shared between parties must be restricted

23 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide24 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Verification & Monitoring:A Gradual Approach A Treaty Monitoring Center

  • The Center will coordinate data exchanges and the sharing of information generated from monitoring activities

  • Third parties should be initial operators, with inclusion of party representatives at a later date

24 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide25 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Associated Measures: Avoiding War by Miscalculation

Confidence Building Measures will include advanced notification of military exercises, observation of exercises, explanations of unusual military activity, and annual military doctrine seminars

25 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide26 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Associated Measures:Avoiding War by Miscalculation Notification and observation of military exercises

  • Parties to provide Treaty Implementation Center advanced notification of any military exercises above an agreed level of forces

  • Other parties would have the opportunity to provide observers for these exercises

26 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide27 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Associated Measures:Avoiding War by Miscalculation Unusual military activities measure

  • A procedure by which one party can request an explanation of unusual military activity would be established

  • This will include agreed measures for observation of those activities if an adequate explanation is not forthcoming

27 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


Slide28 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: Michael Moodie

Tuesday, February 29, 2000

University of California

Associated Measures:Avoiding War by Miscalculation Annual military doctrine seminars

  • To eliminate misunderstandings regarding the military thinking of regional neighbors

  • To bring national military representatives together

28 of 28

author:

Michael Moodie

Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute

2111 Eisenhower Avenue, Suite 302

Alexandria, VA 22314

[email protected]

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected]

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp48


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