“Peak Oil” – It’s coming - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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“Peak Oil” – It’s coming. Dave Kilsby ASPO Australia. It can’t be ignored. Why does it matter?. Forecast Transport Energy Consumption Growth for Australia Source: Energy White Paper 2004. ASPO Australia. aims to:

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“Peak Oil” – It’s coming

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Presentation Transcript

Peak oil it s coming l.jpg

“Peak Oil” – It’s coming

Dave Kilsby

ASPO Australia

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It can’t be ignored

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Why does it matter?

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Forecast Transport Energy Consumption Growth for AustraliaSource: Energy White Paper 2004

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ASPO Australia

aims to:

  • encourage the acknowledgement and study of Peak Oil particularly as it affects Australia

  • be a source of independent information for businesses, governments and communities

  • collaborate with other bodies to help prepare and implement relevant policies and strategies

  • promote awareness of the issue of peak oil and gas

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Oil & gas industry


Indigenous & Remote Communities

Agriculture, fisheries & food

Finance & economics

Urban & transport planning

Social services

Active transport

Construction industry

Health sector


ASPO Australia Working Groups

+ working groups for NSW, Victoria, Queensland, ACT, WA, SA

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How much oil and gas is there? (ASPO 2005 estimate)

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What about Australia? Haven’t we got plenty of our own oil?

Not for much longer! (Geosciences Australia)

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Recent oil price fluctuations

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Unreliability of ABARE forecasts

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VAMPIRE(Source: Dodson & Sipe, Griffith University,2006)

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Alternatives to cars (from Sydney Metro Strategy)

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Domestic freight task % moved by mode 1999-2000

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Conventional oil

Unconventional oil

Natural gas




Alternative transport fuels?

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  • Transport over 40% of final energy use in Australia

  • Transport heavily dependent on liquid fuels (oil)

  • The age of cheap oil is almost over

  • Short-term urgency in planning for post-oil age

  • More mitigation options in cities than in rural areas

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What to do?

  • Commonwealth to become involved

  • “Do nothing” not an option

  • No magic bullet

  • ASPO Australia advocates

    • community engagement, individualised marketing, fuel tax escalator, tradeable fuel allocation system

  • Leadership required

  • Buy time!

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For further information

  • www.sydneypeakoil.com

    • Sydney Peak Oil Group

  • www.aspo-australia.org.au

    • ASPO Australia

  • www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/rrat-ctte

    • over 180 submissions to an Inquiry into oil supply & alternative fuels: …/oil_supply/submissions/sublist.html

  • www.peakoil.net

    • ASPO

  • www.energybulletin.net

    • (one of many good international sitesfor Peak Oil info)

  • Login