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Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. presented by: David N. Griffiths. Wednesday, April 19, 2000. University of California. Maritime Aspects of Arms Control and Security Improvement in the Middle East David N. Griffiths. IGCC. author: David N. Griffiths

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Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Maritime Aspects of Arms Control and Security Improvement in the Middle East

David N. Griffiths

IGCC

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected] f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


Slide2 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Although most security issues in the Middle East are rooted ashore, maritime considerations are important because:

  • there are maritime aspects to many of the security questions

  • the maritime dimension of the region offers unique opportunities in terms of trust, security, and prosperity

2 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected] f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


Slide3 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Naval vs. Maritime

Naval tends to focus ideas towards warships and naval stations

Maritime involves armed and unarmed agencies, as well as economic, environmental, and humanitarian issues

3 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected] f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


Slide4 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

The Nature of Confidence Building

  • An activity, undertaken honestly and in good faith, in which two or more parties seek to achieve a positive change in their security relationship

  • From the perspective of strategic analysis arms control deals with the issue of capabilities while confidence building addresses intentions

4 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected] f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


Slide5 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Traditional Confidence Building Measures Analysis

--James Macintosh 1985

  • Information

  • Constraint

  • Declaratory measures (“non-use of force”)

  • Problem: In 1996 Macintosh concluded that this approach mistakenly focuses on measures rather than on the activity of confidence building

5 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected] f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


Slide6 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Confidence Building vs. Confidence Building Measures

  • Instead of focusing on the unsatisfactory present acknowledge the potential for a positive future

  • Avoid focusing on measures entirely and deal with activities

  • Do not allow choice of words to limit or distort thinking (i.e. Instead of ‘constraint’ the use of ‘restraint’)

6 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected] f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


Slide7 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

A Typology for Practical Confidence

Builders

  • Based on Macintosh’s 1996 study Confidence Building in the Arms Control Process: A transformation view

  • Expressed in terms of actions instead of products

  • Consideration shifts from measures to steps

  • Restraint replaces constraint

  • A category for ‘cooperation’ is added

7 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email [email protected] f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


Slide8 l.jpg

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

  • Steps in the Building of Confidence

  • Cooperation in:

  • safety

  • security

  • economic prosperity

  • technology

  • peacekeeping

  • Restraint of:

    • activity

    • deployment

    • technology

  • Verification and Observation Facilitation:

    • providing opportunities to observe activities

    • observation of activities of interest

    • inspection

    • monitoring

    • facilitation of verification

  • Information, interaction, and communication:

  • exchanging information

  • sharing experience

  • establishing means of communication

  • notification of activities

  • 8 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide9 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Maritime Confidence Building Experience

    Naval arms control efforts have been limited compared to those addressing land and airborne forces due to:

    • The problem of asymmetries in relation to maritime power and interests

    • Navies have roles other than war-fighting serving as diplomatic instruments in a way that armies and air forces are not

    9 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide10 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Maritime Confidence Building Experience

    Prevention of Incidents at Sea (INCSEA)

    • US/Soviet agreement has been honored since 1972 even during considerable diplomatic tension and disputes

    • Its success has led to similar agreements around the world

    • Although it did not prevent all incidents it was effective in keeping incidents from escalating

    10 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide11 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Other INCSEA or Similar Maritime Safety Arrangements:

    Germany & Poland (1990)

    Middle East (1994)

    US and China (1998)

    INCSEAs between US/Russia and:

    United States (1972)

    United Kingdom (1986)

    Canada (1989)

    Germany (1989)

    France (1989)

    Italy (1989)

    Netherlands (1990)

    Norway (1990)

    Spain (1990)

    Greece (1991)

    Japan (1993)

    Republic of Korea (1994)

    Turkey - discussions reportedly ongoing as of 1998

    Portugal - discussions reportedly ongoing as of 1998

    Other Maritime Initiatives:

    Swedish Multilateral UN proposal

    Western Pacific Naval Symposium

    India-Pakistan

    Greece-Turkey

    Dangerous Military Activities Arrangements:

    US/USSR (1990)

    Canada/USSR (1991)

    Greece/Russia (1993)

    China/Russia (1993)

    11 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide12 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Maritime Confidence Building Experience

    Success of INCSEA is based on:

    • Mutual Interest

    • Simplicity

    • Professionalism

    • Preparation

    • Hospitality

    • Discretion

    • Verifiability and Accountability

    12 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide13 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Regional Approaches to Maritime Confidence Building

    The Middle East

    • In 1993 the Arms Control and Regional Security Working Group (ACRS) began consideration of a cooperative search and rescue and the consideration of an INCSEA agreement

    • The Middle East “Guidelines for Operating Procedures” has generated much interest and is reflected in the 1998 maritime safety agreement between the US and China

    13 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide14 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Regional Approaches to Maritime Confidence Building

    Asia-Pacific

    • Considerable need based on the great potential for maritime dispute

    • Maritime confidence building is active and well-established in both Track one and two approaches

    • In 1995 the ARF endorsed a Concept Paper which defines a regional approach to achieving security, peace, and prosperity as including confidence building measures

    14 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide15 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Regional Approaches to Maritime Confidence Building

    Indian Ocean

    • India and Pakistan have shown great interest in an INCSEA

    • Nuclear weapons testing may have damaged the potential for such an agreement in the region

    15 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide16 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Regional Approaches to Maritime Confidence Building

    Latin America

    • Confidence building in the region predates the CBM concept by 70 years

    • There are bilateral arrangements as well as multilateral efforts such as the Inter-American Naval Cooperation forum and the Naval War Colleges of the Americas

    • In 1995 the OAS issued the “Declaration of Santiago on Confidence and Security Building Measures”

    16 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide17 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Regional Approaches to Maritime Confidence Building

    The Caribbean

    • Addresses non-traditional and non-military security concerns

    • The region has already attained the type of security relations confidence building is intended to promote

    • There is potential for further measures to deal with current problems of drug-trafficking, economic vulnerability and environmental hazards

    17 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide18 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Regional Approaches to Maritime Confidence Building

    Euro-Atlantic

    • Illustrates the value of routine cooperation as a mechanism for confidence-building and dispute management

    • The region achieved this mutual trust through cooperation in NATO, WEU, and Partnership for Peace alliances

    18 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide19 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Lessons from Maritime Cooperation

    Characteristics:

    • Common experiences among those who earn their living on the sea

    • Navies have created a diplomatic role and tradition

    • Longstanding tradition of international consultation

    • Maritime issues are generally secondary security considerations so dialogue is not as controversial

    • Maritime economics are rarely the concern of one nation in isolation

    19 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide20 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Lessons from Maritime Cooperation

    INCSEA:

    • Any activity that engages former adversaries or rivals in working together is a powerful catalyst for confidence

    • Once confidence building is in progress there is less emphasis on prevention and constraint and new focus on coordination and cooperation

    20 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide21 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Proposals for the Middle East:

    • A Historical Compendium

    • Senior Officer’s Dialogue

    • Staff Colleges

    • Maritime Information Exchange

    • Search and Rescue

    • Operational Safety

    21 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html


    Slide22 l.jpg

    Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

    presented by: David N. Griffiths

    Wednesday, April 19, 2000

    University of California

    Proposals for the Middle East continued:

    • Coastal Zone Management

    • Marine Transport

    • Cooperative Enforcement

    • Maritime Peacekeeping Training

    • Maritime Environmental and Diving Medicine

    - Previous -

    22 of 22

    author:David N. Griffiths

    Pendragon Applied Research

    3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

    Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

    B2Z 1R5, Canada

    Robinson Building Complex

    9500 Gilman Drive

    La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

    phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

    email [email protected] f

    for full text see igcc onlinehttp://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/publications/policy_papers/pp56.html


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