2009 FEDERAL BY-ELECTIONS POST-TEST

2009 FEDERAL BY-ELECTIONS POST-TEST PowerPoint PPT Presentation


Results of the survey indicate that a second radio flight helped increase reach (Cumberland vs. the other 3 ... Overall, the performance of radio was stronger in rural ridings ...

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2009 FEDERAL BY-ELECTIONS POST-TEST

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Slide 1:2009 FEDERAL BY-ELECTIONS POST-TEST

Slide 2:TABLE OF CONTENTS

Slide 3:1. BACKGROUND, OBJECTIVE, AND METHODOLOGY

TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS ONLY

Slide 4:CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE

The current document is the initial report of the advertising post-test conducted following federal by-elections held on November 9th, 2009. The four ridings covered by the scope of the research are: Cumberland–Colchester–Musquodoboit Valley in Nova Scotia, Hochelaga in the province of Quebec Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup in the province of Quebec, and New Westminster-Coquitlam in British Columbia. The main objective of the research was to evaluate which media vehicles (VIC, Reminder Card, newspaper, radio, the Internet) was most efficient in transmitting elements of information about the electoral process: a) the day of the vote; b) location and time to vote; c) advanced polls and; d) ID requirements. The results of the research will ultimately be used to optimize the media plan in future federal elections. In addition to the telephone surveys, an additional Internet component was conducted in one of the four ridings to measure the impact of the aided recall of the different elements of the media plan. 1. BACKGROUND, OBJECTIVE, AND METHODOLOGY

Slide 5:MEDIA PLAN OVERVIEW

Overview of the media plan used in the by-election. The strategy allowed us to evaluate the impact of: The type of community: Urban vs. Rural ridings The type of newspapers used: Dailies vs. Weeklies The number of radio advertising flights: 2 vs. 1 The detailed media plan for each riding are presented in the Appendix. 1. BACKGROUND, OBJECTIVE, AND METHODOLOGY

Slide 6:METHODOLOGY

Quantitative study Method: Telephone interviews Data collection: November 10-19, 2009 Number of respondents: 800 Number of respondents per riding: 200 Response rate: 25% Margin of error: 6.9% at 95% confidence level Weighting: Age, gender, Voter turnout 1. BACKGROUND, OBJECTIVE, AND METHODOLOGY

Slide 7:2. SUMMARY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS ONLY

Slide 8:SUMMARY FINDINGS – AWARENESS

By-election - The awareness level ranged from 80% in Hochelaga to 97% in Montmagny. Past Impact Research post-tests following by-elections usually yield by-election awareness levels of 90% or more. ID Requirements – 95% claimed to have known about ID requirements even though only half mentioned having heard about it during the recent campaign. 2. SUMMARY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

Slide 9:SUMMARY FINDINGS – POST-TEST / AIDED RECALL

Of the five elements of the media plan tested, the Voter Information Card obtained the best results in terms of aided recall. Of all those aware of the by-election, 78% recalled having received the VIC at home. The aided recall level is comparable to what is usually observed in by-election post-tests. The householder (38%), the newspaper (35%), and the radio (31%) received somewhat similar aided recall level. The Internet banner received the lowest aided recall level. 2. SUMMARY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

Slide 10:SUMMARY FINDINGS – SOURCES OF AWARENESS

On an unaided basis, the Voter Information Card was key to inform the population about the elements of information regarding the voting process (awareness of the date of the vote, advanced polls, location and hours, and ID requirements). The unaided score of the VIC varies from 34% (advanced polls) to 56% (voting locations and hours). The score of the VIC is three to four times greater then the following awareness sources. After the mail (VIC, Householder), the newspaper (weeklies / dailies combined) was the second most important source of information about the voting process. Radio ads were well behind. 2. SUMMARY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

Slide 11:CONCLUSIONS

RADIO – One flight or two flights? Results of the survey indicate that a second radio flight helped increase reach (Cumberland vs. the other 3 ridings). However, it did not help recall of the specific elements of information within the ad. Overall, the performance of radio was stronger in rural ridings (aided recall of the ad / aided recall of the content). 2. SUMMARY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

Slide 12:CONCLUSIONS

DAILIES OR WEEKLIES - Should the media plan focus solely on dailies, solely on weeklies or on a mix of both? Results indicate that the situation is not black and white, that it varies from one riding to another. In Cumberland, a rural riding where dailies were purchased, the media buy was very efficient. Of those who claimed to have seen a newspaper ad, 71% mentioned on an unaided basis, one of the dailies purchased. In Montmagny, also a rural (but geographically spread riding), the use of weeklies also worked efficiently. First of all, the highest aided recall level was observed in Montmagny. Of those who claimed to have seen a newspaper ad, 57% mentioned one of the five weeklies purchased. However, 28% mentioned having seen it in a daily (which were not in the media plan. In the other two ridings, the results were not very conclusive. RURAL vs. URBAN – Comparable or not? Results indicate that the information is easier to transmit in rural ridings. The awareness level of the by-election, as well as that of key information about the electoral process are greater or similar in rural ridings compared to urban ones. The same can be said of the aided recall of the elements of the ad campaign. 2. SUMMARY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

Slide 13:3. PROFILE

TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS ONLY

Slide 14:PROFILE – GENDER AND AGE

3. PROFILE

Slide 15:PROFILE – EDUCATION

3. PROFILE

Slide 16:PROFILE – ETHNIC / CULTURAL BACKGROUND

3. PROFILE

Slide 17:PROFILE – CURRENT OCCUPATION

3. PROFILE

Slide 18:PROFILE – MEDIA

3. PROFILE

Slide 19:4. RESULTS

TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS ONLY

Slide 20:4.1 AWARENESS OF THE BY-ELECTION AND VOTE

TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS ONLY

Slide 21:AWARENESS AND VOTE

Awareness of by-election – In total, 89% of all respondents were aware of a federal by-election in their riding. The awareness level ranged from 80% in Hochelaga to 97% in Montmagny. Except for one exception in the past (Mount-Royal 1999), the awareness level of an upcoming election has always been above 90%. The awareness level was greater amongst respondents 35 years and older (92% vs. 82%). Voter turnout – Of all respondents, 36% voted (weighted data) either via advanced polls or on election day. The awareness level was greater amongst respondents aged 45 years and older (43% vs. 27%). Of those who voted, the vast majority (88%) did so on election day. 98% had the proper IDs at the polls. Of those who did not have the proper IDs, 3 were vouched for by another elector and 1 had to return for his/her IDs. 4.1 AWARENESS OF THE BY-ELECTION AND VOTE

Slide 22:AWARENESS LEVELS OF KEY INFORMATION

Advanced polls – Of those who knew about the by-elections, 82% were aware of advanced polls. The awareness level was greatest in Montmagny (93%). The proportion was also greater amongst respondents aged 45 years and older (86% vs. 78%), and those who voted (93% vs. 76%). Voting locations and hours – Of those who knew about the by-elections, 78% were aware of voting locations and time. At 90%, the proportion was greatest in Cumberland (NS). The proportion was also greater amongst respondents aged 45 years and older (84% vs. 71%) and those who voted (91% vs. 70%). ID requirement – The vast majority (95%) of those who knew about the by-elections knew about the ID requirements. The awareness level is greater amongst 18-34 year olds (99% vs. 94%). ? Of those, only half claimed to have heard about the ID requirements during the recent by-elections. 4.1 AWARENESS OF THE BY-ELECTION AND VOTE

Slide 23:4.2 POST-TEST

TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS ONLY

Slide 24:POST-TEST – AIDED RECALL

Of the five elements of the media plan tested, the Voter Information Card obtained the best results in terms of aided recall. Of all those aware of the by-election, 78% recalled having received the VIC at home. The aided recall level of the VIC is in line with previous post-test results which ranged between 57% to 86%. The householder (38%), the newspaper (35%), and the radio (31%) received somewhat similar aided recall level. The newspaper ad was especially strong in Montmagny (52%). The radio ad(s) was especially strong in Cumberland (40%). Historically, the aided recall for newspaper ads vary greatly from one by-election to the other (16% to 67%). The same observation applies to the householder results (24% to 61%) and to radio (14% to 68%). The Internet ad was seen by 7% of all respondents (aware of the by-election). 4.2 POST-TEST

Slide 25:POST-TEST – AIDED RECALL

Aided recall is greater amongst the following subgroups… Voter Information Card Female (83% vs. 74%) Voters (89% vs. 72%) Householder / Reminder Card Voters (44% vs. 34%) Newspaper Montmagny residents (52%) Voters (43% vs. 31%) Radio Cumberland residents (40%) High school (34%) and college graduate (41%) vs. university graduates (21%) Internet No significant differences observed 4.2 POST-TEST

Slide 26:4.3 SOURCES OF AWARENESS OF ELEMENTS OF INFORMATION

TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS ONLY

Slide 27:KEY INFORMATION REGARDING THE VOTING PROCESS – UNAIDED SOURCES OF AWARENESS

On an unaided basis, the Voter Information Card was key to inform the population about the main information regarding the voting process (awareness of the date of the vote, advanced polls, location and hours, and ID requirements). For the four aforementioned elements of information, the VIC sits atop the list of unaided awareness sources. The scores vary from 34% for the awareness of the advanced polls to 56% for voting locations and hours. The score of the VIC is three to four times greater then the following awareness sources. After the mail (VIC, Householder), the newspaper (weeklies / dailies combined) was the second most important source of information about the voting process. Radio ads were well behind. Elections Canada website was mentioned as a source of information for ID requirements. Newspaper – As a whole, dailies were more often mentioned than weeklies for information regarding the date of the election and the advanced polls. For the other two elements of information (voting locations and hours and ID requirements, weeklies and dailies were equally mentioned. 4.3 SOURCES OF AWARENESS OF ELEMENTS OF INFORMATION

Slide 28:DATE OF THE ELECTION – UNAIDED SOURCES OF AWARENESS

Q: “Where did you get your information about the date of the election, that is, November 9th? Were there any other sources?” UP TO 5 ANSWERS 4.3 SOURCES OF AWARENESS OF ELEMENTS OF INFORMATION

Slide 29:ADVANCED POLLS – UNAIDED SOURCES OF AWARENESS

Q: “Where did you get your information about the dates for advanced voting? Were there any other sources?” UP TO 5 ANSWERS 4.3 SOURCES OF AWARENESS OF ELEMENTS OF INFORMATION

Slide 30:VOTING LOCATIONS AND HOURS – UNAIDED SOURCES OF AWARENESS

Q: “Where did you get your information about voting locations and hours? Were there other sources?” UP TO 5 ANSWERS 4.3 SOURCES OF AWARENESS OF ELEMENTS OF INFORMATION

Slide 31:ID REQUIREMENTS – UNAIDED SOURCES OF AWARENESS

Q: “During the by-election, where did you get your information about these requirements? Were there any other sources?” UP TO 5 ANSWERS 4.3 SOURCES OF AWARENESS OF ELEMENTS OF INFORMATION

Slide 32:SOURCES OF AWARENESS OF KEY INFORMATION - AIDED

Q: “Do you remember seeing or reading the following information on [the measured medium]… (VIC, Reminder Card…)?” On an aided basis, the VIC was again the best vehicle to inform about the electoral process. More than 80% of those who remember receiving the VIC saw the date of the election and the voting locations and hours on it. Around two-thirds of those who received the VIC saw the information regarding advanced polls and ID requirements, the highest score amongst the five elements of the ad campaign tested. 4.3 SOURCES OF AWARENESS OF ELEMENTS OF INFORMATION

Slide 33:4.4 DIFFERENCES

WEEKLIES VS. DAILIES RADIO RURAL / URBAN TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS ONLY

Slide 34:RURAL VS. URBAN

A few differences were observed between rural (Cumberland and Montmagny) and urban ridings (New Westminster and Hochelaga). The following awareness levels were greater in rural ridings: By-election (96% vs. 82%). Advanced polls (87% vs. 77%). Voting locations and hours (82% vs. 74%). The aided recall rate of the following were greater in rural ridings: Newspaper (42% vs. 27%) Radio (36% vs. 24%) 4.4 DIFFERENCES

Slide 35:RADIO – TWO FLIGHTS VS. ONE

CONTEXT - In the Cumberland riding two radio flights were purchased compared to one flight for the other three ridings. In all four ridings, one flight was aired only a few days before election day. The aided recall rate of the radio ad is greatest in the riding where two flights were purchased (40% vs. 33% / 25% / 24%). Overall, the performance of radio was stronger in rural ridings. Aided recall was stronger in rural ridings. Respondents who remember hearing the radio ad(s) recall more elements of information. 4.4 DIFFERENCES

Slide 36:WEEKLIES VS. DAILIES

CONTEXT – To verify which, weeklies or dailies, performs better in terms of reach and transmitting elements of information regarding the vote, the decision was made to buy mostly weeklies in some ridings and mostly dailies in others. Most of the print buys were weeklies in 2 ridings (New Westminster (BC) and Montmagny (Qc)) as opposed to dailies for the other two ridings Cumberland (NS) and Hochelaga (Qc). The aided recall rate of the newspaper ad was greater where weeklies were purchased (41% vs. 28%). This is mostly due to the very high recall rate in Montmagny (52%), where five French weeklies were purchased to cover the riding. 4.4 DIFFERENCES

Slide 37:POST-TEST – AIDED RECALL NEWSPAPERS

In Cumberland and Hochelaga, mostly dailies were purchased Cumberland - Of those who recall seeing a newspaper ad, 71% mentioned one or several of the dailies purchased for the campaign. Most of the buy was focused on dailies. Only a French weekly was purchased. Hochelaga - Of those who recall seeing a newspaper ad, only 33% mentioned one or several of the dailies purchased. In Montmagny and New Westminster, mostly weeklies were purchased Montmagny - Of those who recall seeing a newspaper ad, 57% mentioned one or several of the weeklies purchased. New Westminster - Of those who recall seeing a newspaper ad, only 14% mentioned one or several of the weeklies purchased. Note: Comparisons were made between Cumberland and Hochelaga AND between Montmagny and New Westminster. 4.4 DIFFERENCES

Slide 38:SOURCES OF UNAIDED AWARENESS - NEWSPAPERS

Dailies Cumberland - Of those who recall seeing a newspaper ad, 46% specifically mentioned the Halifax Chronicle Herald and 28% the Truro Daily News, both of which were bought. Hochelaga - Of those who recall seeing a newspaper ad, 29% mentioned Le Journal de Montréal which is on the media plan. However, 38% mentioned La Presse which was not bought for the by-election. Weeklies Montmagny - Of those who recall seeing a newspaper ad, 57% mentioned one or several of the weeklies purchased. The five French weeklies purchased were mentioned by at least 8%. Little duplications were observed between publications (net aided recall: 57% / only 9% mentioned more than 1). New Westminster - Of those who recall seeing a newspaper ad, 14% mentioned one of the two weeklies bought (the New Westminster Now / Royal City Record). Several (27%) were not able to specifically name the newspaper. Three dailies (which did not appear on the media plan) were mentioned: Vancouver Sun (21%), The Province (15%), and The Tri-City News (13%) Base: Those who recall seeing a newspaper ad. 4.4 DIFFERENCES

Slide 39:B. COMPARISON BETWEEN TELEPHONE AND INTERNET SURVEYS

Slide 40:METHODOLOGY – ALTERNATIVE

In addition to the telephone surveys, an additional Internet component was conducted in the New Westminster / Coquitlam riding. The objective of the alternative methodology was to measure the impact of the methodology on the results, especially the aided recall level of the different elements of the media plan. Number of respondents: 199 Data collection: November 16-21, 2009 Weighting: As was the case with the telephone results, Internet results were weighed based on age, gender, and voter turnout. TELEPHONE VS. INTERNET SURVEYS

Slide 41:DIFFERENCES BETWEEN INTERNET AND TELEPHONE

Profile – Internet respondents were less educated and had a greater number of “Canadian” respondents. A greater proportion of them read dailies and weeklies. Aided recall – Interestingly, the aided recall of four of five elements of the ad campaign were comparable between Internet and telephone respondents. Only the aided recall of the newspaper ad was lower amongst Internet respondents even though a greater proportion of them read weeklies (which was what was bought in New Westminster). Sources of awareness – The biggest differences were observed in the sources of awareness of key information regarding the voting process. Given the similarities in terms of profile, the differences are possibly due to the differences in methodology: All the potential media (VIC, newspaper – daily, Elections Canada website…) were listed to Internet respondents whereas the list was not read to respondents over the phone. With Internet respondents, we showed the different pieces of the campaign. Although these pieces were masked, this methodology may have helped respondents remember the information presented on these pieces. TELEPHONE VS. INTERNET SURVEYS

Slide 42:PROFILE – GENDER AND AGE

TELEPHONE VS. INTERNET SURVEYS

Slide 43:PROFILE – ETHNIC / CULTURAL BACKGROUND

TELEPHONE VS. INTERNET SURVEYS

Slide 44:PROFILE – MEDIA

TELEPHONE VS. INTERNET SURVEYS The proportion of those who read weeklies is greater amongst Internet respondents.

Slide 45:AWARENESS LEVELS OF KEY ELECTORAL INFORMATION

The awareness of the New Westminster by-election was greater amongst the Internet respondents. Besides that difference, awareness scores are comparable between the two samples. TELEPHONE VS. INTERNET SURVEYS

Slide 46:POST-TEST – AIDED RECALL

Aided recall between the two samples are comparable on four of the five elements of the ad campaign tested: VIC, Householder, Radio ad, and Internet banners. The aided recall of the newspaper ad was significantly lower amongst Internet respondents. It is important to note that on the phone, the elements of the ad campaign were described whereas on the Internet, masked versions were shown. The radio ad was not played to either telephone or Internet respondents because once the ad was masked, there was not enough to play. TELEPHONE VS. INTERNET SURVEYS

Slide 47:DATE OF THE ELECTION – SOURCES OF AWARENESS

Q: “Where did you get your information about the date of the election, that is, November 9th? Were there any other sources?” Internet: Internet (news content): 7% Elections Canada website: 5% Telephone: Unaided multiple mentions: Internet: Aided mentions TELEPHONE VS. INTERNET SURVEYS In this case (and for the next three slides), the importance of the direct mail is even greater amongst Internet respondents, the Householder especially.

Slide 48:ADVANCED POLLS –SOURCES OF AWARENESS

Q: “Where did you get your information about the dates for advanced voting? Were there any other sources?” Telephone: Unaided multiple mentions: Internet: Aided mentions Internet: Elections Canada website: 3% TELEPHONE VS. INTERNET SURVEYS

Slide 49:VOTING LOCATIONS AND HOURS –SOURCES OF AWARENESS

Q: “Where did you get your information about voting locations and hours? Were there other sources?” Internet: Radio ads: 4% Elections Canada website: 3% Telephone: Unaided multiple mentions: Internet: Aided mentions TELEPHONE VS. INTERNET SURVEYS

Slide 50:ID REQUIREMENTS – SOURCES OF AWARENESS

Q: “During the by-election, where did you get your information about these requirements? Were there any other sources?” Internet: Internet banners: 5% Internet (news content): 5% Telephone: Unaided multiple mentions: Internet: Aided mentions TELEPHONE VS. INTERNET SURVEYS

Slide 51:SOURCES OF AWARENESS OF KEY INFORMATION – AIDED

Q: “Do you remember seeing or reading the following information on…?” In most instances, the aided recall rate of key information related to the voting process is greater amongst Internet respondents TELEPHONE VS. INTERNET SURVEYS

Slide 52:APPENDIX

QUESTIONNAIRES IMAGES USED (INTERNET)

Slide 53:QUESTIONNAIRES

Slide 54:IMAGES USED

Slide 55:MEDIA PLANS

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