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Point counter point with bob lucky gordon bell microsoft may 5 1998 l.jpg

Point & Counter-point with Bob Lucky”Gordon BellMicrosoftMay 5, 1998

The 1998 Bellcore Forum:*Competing in the Millennium:

Vision, Innovation, and Delivery

*Audience response was used for this presentation, and the attendees from Bellcore, LECs, CLECs, IECs/IXCs, Cable companies, and equipment suppliers were polled. The %s indicate the results of these polls.


Predicting future telecom services or lack thereof l.jpg
Predicting future telecom services or lack thereof

  • Introducing the Internet and Web driver

  • Cyberspace… the quest and vision … my opinion

  • Laws of Prediction … or how to understand the technology of our future

  • The big telecommunication bets… if we could only forecast the future

  • Overthrowing the incumbents… a plan*

    *Appended to the original talk.


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By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1KBet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.

Bet: Me? 77% NN? 23%


Why this is the keystone bet l.jpg
Why this is the keystone bet! “net”.

  • It determines the market

    • for networks

    • for access devices… especially PCs

  • It says something about the utility

    • commerce

    • communication

    • entertainment

  • Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables

    • phones

    • videophones

    • television

    • serendipity


Interneters growth l.jpg
Interneters growth “net”.

World Population

10000

1000

100

10

TVs & Phones

“1 Gp by 2000”Negroponte

PCs

Internetters

‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04


Interneters growth6 l.jpg
Interneters growth “net”.

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

World Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per year

Internet Growthextrapolated at 98% per year

‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04


Growth in hype l.jpg

WWW “net”.

books,

newspapers

Infoway regulation

Infoway promise:

“how great it’ll be” (politicians, academics, etc.)

Infoway addiction

conferences

lawsuits

Growth in hype

Data from Gordon’s WAG


Articles about security privacy fraud versus commerce m l.jpg

actual commerce “net”.

articles about risk and NOT doing commerce

pornography, crime, FUD, etc. articles

Articles about security, privacy, & fraud versus commerce ($M)

Data from Gordon’s WAG



The virtuous cycle that drives the bw quest l.jpg
The Virtuous Cycle “net”.that drives the BW quest

Userdemand

Application

innovation

Internet(IP)

ubiquity

Capac. (svc & response)

Excess capac.-->>BW


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Bob Lucky, Vice President “net”.Bellcore, 1995

If we couldn’t predict the Web, what good are we?


Exponentials change everything l.jpg
Exponentials “net”.change everything

… you can’t see ‘em coming!




Why phone guys hate computer guys l.jpg
Why phone guys hate computer guys option

0. Where would they be without the transistor, RJ11 and UNIX that you de-standardized?

1. They’re nouveau rich we’re old money.

2. We brought ISDN to the party, nobody came.

3. They’re IP’ing on us including phones!

4. Packets don’t make links fatter or faster.

5. All they want is free, high bandwidth, 24 hour a day phone calls. Why do they need bandwidth? They have nothing to show.

6. Don’t talk service. I reboot my PC every day. Ever have to reboot your phone?

7. Just wait till the governments get on their case.


Agenda predicting and forecasting l.jpg
Agenda… predicting and forecasting option

  • Introducing the Internet and Web driver

  • Cyberspace… the quest and vision … my opinion

  • Laws of Prediction … or how to understand the technology of our future

  • The big telecommunication bets… if we could only forecast the future

  • Overthrowing the incumbents… a plan



Cyberspace a network of networks of l.jpg
Cyberspace: optionA Network of ... Networks of ...

Body

Continent

Region/

Intranet

Home

Campus

World


Cyberization interface to all bits and process information l.jpg
Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information option

  • Coupling to all information and information processors

  • Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video

  • Bit tokens e.g. money, stock

  • State of: places, things, and people

  • State of: physical networks


Platform interface network computer class enablers l.jpg

“The Computer” option

Mainframe

tube, core, drum, tape, batch O/S

direct > batch

Mini & Timesharing

SSI-MSI, disk, timeshare O/S

terminals via commands

POTS

PC/WS

micro, floppy, disk, bit-map display, mouse, dist’d O/S

WIMP

LAN

Web browser,

telecomputer,

tv computer

PC, scalable servers,

Web, HTML

Internet

Platform, Interface, & Network Computer Class Enablers

Network Interface Platform


Everything will be in cyberspace l.jpg
“Everything will be in Cyberspace” option

  • Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate?… or

  • Cyberization enables new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them

    • Infrastructure supports the content

    • Three evolutionary dimensions


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All the platforms we have and will inevitably build have to be totally interconnected to have Cyberspace.That’s your job!The price has to be right… you cannot count on voice revenue forever!



Mobile videophone l.jpg
Mobile videophone an opportunity


Honda robot l.jpg
Honda Robot an opportunity


People surrogates l.jpg
People an opportunitysurrogates


Steve mann in cyberspace l.jpg
Steve Mann an opportunityinCyberspace


Medtronics implanted cardioplastic l.jpg
Medtronics an opportunityImplantedCardioplastic



Slide31 l.jpg

Not shown: ECG; GPS; an opportunity

Compass; altimeter

PCS; Pilot

Libretto, .5mm pencil

Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife


Cyberspace one two or three networks in 2005 2010 2020 l.jpg

Data an opportunity

Telephony

Television

Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020


The worlds of tv telephony datacom a k a computing internet l.jpg

Game an opportunity

Cons.

Telephony

world

VCR

Television

world

DVD

>97

Wire-

less

Cable

Cable

phone

The Worlds of TV, Telephony & Datacom a.k.a. Computing & Internet

Broad-

cast

LEC

CLEC

IEC

xDSL

TV

DBS

Cable

I’net

PBX

ITV?

I’net

Phone

The

Internet

LAN

PBX

I’net

RADIO

RADIO

ISP

Pvt.

WAN

IntranetExtranets

Wire-

less

LAN

Datacom

world


Cyberspace a spiraling quest in 3d real space l.jpg

Programs, Content & messages an opportunity

Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space

Computation

Cyberization

Communication


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Agenda… predicting and forecasting an opportunity

  • Introducing the Internet and Web driver

  • Cyberspace… the quest and vision … my opinion

  • Laws of Prediction … or how to understand the technology of our future

  • The big telecommunication bets… if we could only forecast the future

  • Overthrowing the incumbents… a plan



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I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. right or wrong?

Thomas Watson Senior, Chairman of IBM, 1943


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Harvard Mark I right or wrong?aka IBM ASCC


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Predictions require some history. right or wrong?

  • The computer hadn’t been invented.

  • Watson’s prediction held for 10 years.

  • You need history to predict.


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Moore’s Law vs Moron’s Law for prediction… differences in Cyberspace perception


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Moore’s Law 60%/yr. Memory differences in Cyberspace perception -- 4 x size every 3 years

10 G

1 G

100 M

10 M

1 M

100 K

10 K

1 K

0.1 K

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010


Extrapolation from 1950s 20 30 growth per year l.jpg

Tera differences in Cyberspace perception

Giga

Mega

Kilo

1

Storage

Backbone

Processing

Memory

??

Telephone Service17% / year

1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007

Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year


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Moron's Law (cf. Newton) differences in Cyberspace perception

“the residual effects of regulation ensure that telecom carriers will never provide what the customer wants and … it comes five years too late.”--venture capitalist Roger McNamee.

“Computer folks ... fear that Moron's Law will trump Moore's and stunt the revolution's growth over the next 30 years.”


Newton s first law bodies at rest l.jpg
Newton's First Law. Bodies at rest ... differences in Cyberspace perception

  • LECs, PUC and FCC are at rest, supplying assuredly profitable (by definition) local service.

  • Cable TV raises prices to cash out

  • CLECs and IECs “cherry pick” lucrative corporate (not consumer) local service

  • LECs see reduced revenue and profit

  • LECs, PUCs, and FCC raise prices

  • LECs downsize to remain at rest, buy cable and CLECs to remain at rest & maintain monopoly


Electricity and lecs to merge l.jpg
Electricity and LECs to Merge differences in Cyberspace perception

Wires to the home …

Guys and trucks

Poles and holes…

Same customers

Geo-monopolies

PUC interaction

Core competency: lobbying


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Why computer guys hate phone guys differences in Cyberspace perception

0. Ads say “someday you will”. Just do it!

1. All they give us is POTS to IP on.

2. It’s not the price of bandwidth (that they said would be free) … it’s the availability

3. They won’t buy packet switching. Computers let everyone be telecoms. They’ll pay.

4. The net is the net. Services are services. Content is content. Stop trying to own ALL.

5. Telephone quality is an oxymoron. With 64 kbps, we should be getting CD quality.

5. Name any monopoly that has love & respect

6. It’s taken 35 years to learn that computer calls last 24 hours/day, not 5 minutes.


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Why no one likes cable guys differences in Cyberspace perception

0. But you just increased my rates

1. They don’t even own the poles or holes. They’re just schmucks in trucks.

2. They are too close to the broadcast industry and that eliminated logic.

3. We’d all like to be unregulated too then we can raise rates faster and do whatever we want.


Telecom view of cyberspace we will tell you the services l.jpg
Telecom View of Cyberspace: We will tell you the services. differences in Cyberspace perception

The Network and all the Sevices you would ever want.

Subscribers


Silicon valley view of cyberspace provide a switch and entrepreneurs will create the services l.jpg
Silicon Valley View of Cyberspace: provide a switch and entrepreneurs will create the services

All the Services you might or might not want

Subscribers

Worldwide mostly IP Switch


Telecom equipment industry 1998 l.jpg
Telecom Equipment Industry 1998 entrepreneurs will create the services

AT&T

Nortel

Siemens

ROLM

NEC

Solutions

Applications

OS

Computers

Switching/DSP


Future telecom industry l.jpg
Future Telecom Industry entrepreneurs will create the services

Ericsson, Aspect, Nortel, Octel, others

Microsoft, Delrina, many others

Applications

Applications

Databases

OS

Switching

Computers

DSP

Processors

Informix, Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, others

Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell, LINUX

Ericsson, Nortel, Bay, 3Com, Fore, others

Compaq, DEC, Dell, IBM, many others

Dialogic, NMS, Rhetorex, others

Intel, AMD, Motorola, others


Computer vs telecom l.jpg

Proc. & mem 2x/1.5 yr Access B/W 2x/4yr entrepreneurs will create the services Trunk BW 2x/ 9 mos.

Prices decline Prices increase

Email, web, audio, etc. Voice, voicemail, fax

Packet switching… Circuit switching...

… will too, do voice! …is required for voice

64Kbps gives great audio Telephone Quality Voice … is an oxymoron

IP ATM, ISDN & POTS

Fungible bits for Unique bits and phone fax data tv… ala carte pricing

Connect & bits go free. Billing & lawyer costs

Just give us any old net! We want it all: we’ll compute the rest net, nodes, content

Technology-based …its Lobbying-based … its

Information Services Telecommunications

Moore’s Law Moron’s Law

Computer vs Telecom


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The beginning of the end… entrepreneurs will create the services or a new beginning?

“You have to separate the hype from the reality. We have customers, real customers paying hundreds of millions of dollars to us today. When you look at Level 3 and Qwest, how many customers do they have?” ---- R C Notebaert, Ameritech

“We’re not going to wake up and find our voice business is gone”--- M Turner, US West


A technology e g packet switching can come from nowhere and wipe you out l.jpg
A technology entrepreneurs will create the services e.g. packet switching can come from nowhere and wipe you out!

  • MOS memories and micros were introduced in 1972.

  • By 1976, MOS memories wiped out core memories.


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There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.

Ken OlsenPresident, Chairman and founder of Digital, 1977


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Equating home.yourself to the average“user/buyer” is risky . . . unless you’re an average user.


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ISDN will be ubiquitous home.by 1985.

Irwin Dorros, VP Long Lines ATT, 1981

“ Unfortunately we’re stuck with ISDN speed using POTS for the next 5 years.”

Gordon Bell, ACM 1997



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conservative prediction.

AT&T will not have screwed up its purchase of NCR by 1996.

Robb Wilmot, advising Robert Allen in 1992 ($100)


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We under-estimate the devastating power of conservative prediction.companies & planners, lawyers & government, to foul up predictions.

But to really foul up requires an econometric and market models!


By 1997 video on demand will be available and operating in six cities l.jpg

conservative prediction.

By 1997 Video-on-Demand will be available and operating in six cities

Raj Reddy & Ed Lazowska1992 (winners get fed)

When will this happen?2000 8%, 2005 46%, 2010 25%, never 21%


Slide64 l.jpg

conservative prediction.

By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in 10% daily use.

Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper, loser gets fed)

Will this happen by: 2001 25%, 2005 50%, 2010 18%, 2015 3%, never 4%


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Always bet against the optimistic researcher. They are wrong in the short term, but ultimately right.


Build it and they will come l.jpg
“Build it and they will come” wrong in the short term, but ultimately right.

  • Vision: Provide bandwidth and they will come to share supercomputers, do telemedicine, telescience, ship pictures around. Traffic continues to double.

  • The web was serendipity!

  • "A user ... would build a process and launch it into the network ... with explicit instructions about things to look for and what to do … ."


If you do the right thing serendipity works l.jpg
If you do the right thing, serendipity works! wrong in the short term, but ultimately right.


Ncs will not outsell pcs 9 1 by 2000 l.jpg
NCs will NOT outsell PCs 9:1 by 2000.… wrong in the short term, but ultimately right.

NCs include those embedded in TV sets, phones, and used as PC alternatives.

Bet with Larry Ellison, CEO Oracle: While the devices connected to the web (e.g. instruments, cameras, appliances, printers, phones, and television sets) may be greater than PCs, the number of personal access devices that are NOT PCs will be less than 9:1.


Slide70 l.jpg

Don’t bother betting where the goal is just PR. It is safe to bet against Larry Ellison even if he has lots of money.Elllison bought Ncube. It failed as an MPP computer, failed again as a database engine, and finally failed as a video-on-demand server.


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Observations on predicting safe to bet against Larry Ellison even if he has lots of money.

  • Existence proofs are essential, otherwise it’s faith and luck.

  • Numbers and data are our friends to use.

  • Bet against the optimistic researcher. They are ultimately right, while initially wrong.

  • Bet on predictors who are grounded, intuitive, imaginative, and lucky.

  • Because it could, doesn’t mean it will.

  • It’s usually just the economics, stupid… look there first!

  • Don’t count of Newton’s First Law… because greed (an outside force) usually beats fear (inertia).


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What percent of biz traffic by contacts, (not traffic) will be:

Item Bell/Lucky 1994 2000

Fax 11 10 7 10

Voice 15 50 15 30

Voice/Video confer 2 2 10 10

Overnite mail 2 3 1.5 5

Snail mail 20 25 10 25

Email 50 10 56 30

Newspaper?

Web?

Television?


Agenda predicting and forecasting73 l.jpg
Agenda… predicting and forecasting be:

  • Introducing the Internet and Web driver

  • Cyberspace… the quest and vision … my opinion

  • Laws of Prediction … or how to understand the technology of our future

  • The big telecommunication bets… if we could only forecast the future

  • Overthrowing the incumbents… a plan


Some of my recent bets would you bet with me l.jpg
Some of my recent bets! be:Would you bet with me?


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PC growth is be:not stalled...

Bet: (Walt Mossberg, WSJ) There will be continued growth of PCs (I.e. things that run Windows, NT, or CE) at a double digit rate for until 2001.

Bet with me? 87% With Mossberg? 13%


Web will reach 50 of the u s households l.jpg
Web be:will reach 50% of the U.S. households...

Negroponte predicts 1Bp and $1T/yr of commerce by 1/2001.

Bet: with Dave Nagel, AT&T one dinner The web will reach 400M world-wide users OR 50% of U.S. households by end of 2001.

Do you bet with me? 57% Nagel? 43%


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One million people be:will access the web via TV sets...

Bet::At least one million users will access the web/internet via their television sets by the end of 2001.

Via: phone line, 16%xDSL 19% cable modem 17% settop box/cable 39%not at all 9%


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Average bandwidth to homes will be:not soon be huge…

High bandwidth links are being delivered today in trials of 10K+ using cable & xDSL.

Bet: The average bandwidth to all U. S. homes with PCs will be <56 Kbps in 1/2001.

The availability of bandwidth coming to consumers and small businesses by 1/2001 via Cu twisted pair aka LECs or IECs will be comparable to ISDN today.

<56Kbps 71% >128Kbps 29%


A gigabit net will not be in place for research users l.jpg
A gigabit net will be:not be in place for research users…

Bet: Raj Reddy et al … fine food & drink10K users at 10 sites of > 500 users/site in 3 states will NOT inter-connect through a gigabit path by the end of 2000.

Do you bet with me? 65% Or with Raj? 35%

Based on market need, this service will be available by: 2000 10%, 2005 53%, 2010 29%, 2020 5%, never 4%.


Telepresentations will be a well defined app by 2001 l.jpg
Telepresentations be:will be a well-defined app by 2001.

ACM97 aka its 50th on March 3-5, 1997 was the first telepresented conference with Mbone multicast and servers

Bet with Denise Curruso, NY TimesMore people will view conferences that are made telepresent from Cyberspace than those attended it in meatspace by 2001. Note this bet was won within 6 months.

Bet: Even this meeting will be telepresented by 2001 37%, 2005 35%, 2010 10%, never 18%


Acm 97 mar 1997 attendee poll what s your opinion l.jpg
ACM 97 (Mar. 1997) attendee poll… what’s your opinion? be:

By 2047 will the majority telecommute? (68% of ACM attendees said yes)

Will representative democracy be replaced by electronic participatory, democracy by 2047? (ACM: 38% yes)

TV, the internet and telephone will converge by 2002 (ACM) !… clearly optimistic and very wrong



Forecast of internet telephony videotelephony l.jpg
Forecast of Internet Telephony & Videotelephony not) happen

IP will carry $2B of existing voice or fax traffic by: 2001, 2005, 2010

IP will carry 20% of existing voice or fax traffic by: 2001, 2005, 2010

IP will carry 50% of voice and fax traffic by: 2005, 2010, 2020, never

*Note email can be used to carry fax traffic, but not visa-versa.


Forecast of xdsl cable of internet to us homes businesses l.jpg
Forecast of xDSL & CABLE of Internet to US Homes & Businesses

xDSL use will cross-over ISDN installations by 2001 55%, 2005 37%, 2010 8%

xDSL will deliver service to 10M by 2001 10%, 2005 69%, 2010 22%

Cable will provide WWW to 1Ml by 2001 61%, 2005 31%, 2010 8%

Cable will deliver WWW to 10M by 2001, 2005, 2010


Forecast of convergence l.jpg
Forecast of convergence? Businesses

The datacom network (IP) will carry Television programs by 1/2001, 2005, 2010, 2020, never

There will be a single net to access the majority of telephony, data, and television sources by 2005, 2010, 2020, never


Forecast of the access device l.jpg
Forecast of the access device Businesses

One-half the homes with PCs will be “always on” by: 2001, 2005, 2010, 2020

The main (in units) web access device in 2001 will be: the PC, Telecomputer aka videophone, Set-top, TV, other

The main web access device in 2005 will be the PC, Telecomputer, Set-top, TV, other

The main web access device in 2010 will be the PC, Telecomputer, Set-top, TV, other


Agenda predicting and forecasting87 l.jpg
Agenda… predicting and forecasting Businesses

  • Introducing the Internet and Web driver

  • Cyberspace… the quest and vision … my opinion

  • Laws of Prediction … or how to understand the technology of our future

  • The big telecommunication bets… if we could only forecast the future

  • Overthrowing the incumbents… a plan


Slide88 l.jpg

Ten Niches to the IECs economic support base. BusinessesReducing voice revenue is the only avenue for changing the LEC-PUC-FCC controlled access infrastructure!


Overthrowing bandwidth limiting incumbent iecs to get internet access ten critical niches l.jpg
Overthrowing bandwidth limiting incumbent IECs to get Internet access …ten, critical niches

  • Plain Old Cellular replaces POTS

  • 64 Kbps quality audio vs telephony quality

  • Cable for Internet AND voice over IP

  • CLECs aka Competitive LEC suppliers

  • Newcos (e.g. Covad): IP service with xDSL

  • Startup IP based telephony companies

  • Large users by-pass LECs and use IXCs and IP for inter-organization telephony

  • Fax services over Internet undermines base

  • Bellcore plan for ISPs to provide “telefony”

  • Maintain FCC support FCC for voice over IP without FCC/PUC interference


Telephone quality voice is an oxymoron we can do better l.jpg
Telephone Quality Voice is an Oxymoron! We can do better. Internet access …ten, critical niches

  • Analog to digital transition must occur!

  • E.g. a 6 Mhz TV channel can deliver about six higher DVD quality digital channels

  • IECs use 64 Kbps channels to supply approximately 8 kbps, low-quality voice

  • New channels can offer higher quality audio using >33 kbps.

  • Datacom must drive to offer scalable audio bandwidths from 2 kbps-500 kbps


Attack plan for isps to deliver voice l.jpg
Attack plan for ISPs to deliver voice Internet access …ten, critical niches

  • According to the rules, ISPs cannot offer telephony if it looks like a telephone

  • Thee ways that make IP telephony NOT be a telephone:

    • Increased quality… use all the bandwidth that can be obtained e.g. 33, 56 or whatever to provide high, not telephone quality voice

    • It is a videophone

    • It is a computer and conference device


How a new player or isp can attack incumbents e g lecs l.jpg
How a New Player or ISP can Attack Incumbents e.g. LECs* Internet access …ten, critical niches

  • Dial Me Up, Faster and Faster!!!!

IXC

Internet

Backbone

Telafony

Gateway

Voice over IP at 7.3 Kbps

Using Modems

ISP+

LEC

*courtesy of Bellcore


Plan for pipes and wires l.jpg
Plan for Pipes and Wires Internet access …ten, critical niches

ATM

Switches

IP

Routers

LEC

Network

LECs are free pipe and wire access providers.

IP over ATM lets competitors buildout a network


Fcc s 4 10 98 report to congress how long will it remain l.jpg
FCC’s 4/10/98 Report to Congress: How long will it remain?

If you use IP to transmit and store information, including telephony (unless it looks like a plain old telephone call), its Information Services.

If you use circuit switching (no storage) its Telecommunications (and FCC/PUC controlled)

IP Telephony has to look different!

Bet:This will hold until 1/2001.



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