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Bahrain 5.6. Oman 5.3. Saudi Arabia 5.2. Lebanon 4.8. Syria 4.7. Qatar 4.7 ... other tourism activities for Bahrain surpassed all growth expectation ...

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Presentation overview

* WTTC * Macro-Drivers for global economy *Travel & Tourism Growth*Global Trends*Implications for Travel & Tourism


Founding Members

Abercrombie & Kent AccorAmerican AirlinesAmerican ExpressAvis, Inc.British Airways plcCanadian Pacific Hotels CorporationDelta Air LinesEast Japan Railway CompanyHertzIberiaRegent International Hotels The Promus Companies Thrifty Rent-a-CarUnited AirlinesWestin Hotels & Resorts


To raise awareness of the importance of Travel & Tourism and to work with governments to realise the full potential of the industry in creating sustainable wealth and jobs.

WTTC Purpose


Raising Awareness

WTTC introduction of Travel & Tourism Economy Concept


Headwinds for the world in 2008Macro-Drivers

  • Credit crunch continues to be a worry on outlook

  • High oil prices may become a major constraint on growth

  • US housing in trouble

  • Weaker dollar

  • China to record another year with 2-digit growth


Robust global growth to continue…


Robust global growth to continue…


Rapid Growth…oil price surge

Explaining the Forecast: 1) Expectations of slower economic growth- dent demand for energy

2) Nominal prospects of increase in OPEC production (December Meeting)


…buoyed by rising per capita incomes…


…& diversification strategies…


Greater integration also boosting business travel…


Travel & Tourism developments in 2007-2017…


The major stories: the rise of the Middle East…


China’s growing role in Travel & Tourism…


WORLD

2006 saw further broad-based strength in the tourism economy. In 2007, growth is not expected to be quite so dynamic as in 2006 as growth moves generally closer to the trend rates embodied in the 10-year annualized forecast.


TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY GDP THE WORLD 2007

World Average

Caribbean

Oceania

North Africa

Middle East

European Union

Southeast Asia

Northeast Asia

2007 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

Other Western Europe

Central and Eastern Europe

North America

Latin America

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2008-2017

(Percent Annualized)


2007 – 2017

WORLD


Outlook for

the Middle East


TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY GDPMIDDLE EAST 2007

T&T Economy GDP

average

World Average

Middle East

Kuwait5.8

Bahrain5.6

Oman5.3

Saudi Arabia5.2

Lebanon4.8

Syria4.7

Qatar4.7

Jordan4.5

Iran4.2

UAE3.5

Yemen1.6

2007 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2008-2017

(Percent Annualized)


UAE

Expectations in 2007 surpassed results from 2006 in all areas of tourism activities but UAE has experienced major increase in government expenditure, capital investment and visitor exports. Forecasts for next years will be more stable.


QATAR

2007 exceeded all 2006 results in most tourism activities with greatest increase in Business Travel and capital investment.


JORDAN

Tourism activity has generally slowed down in 2007 but government expenditure has increased which will develop Jordan’s Travel & Tourism at a stable and consistent rate over the next ten years.


BAHRAIN

2007 saw a marked increase in capital investment. All other tourism activities for Bahrain surpassed all growth expectation of 2006.


OMAN

All tourism activities have double in growth in 2007 and the industry will remain stable and strong for coming decade.


Top 5 Infrastructure Raking in Middle East (World Rank/ 124)


Summary global view

Despite increased downside risks, it remains likely that the slowdown in world GDP growth will be limited because:

- rapidly expanding emerging economies

- these countries are recognizing the development potential of the T&T industry and investing accordingly

- Rapid economic growth boosting incomes and creating an entire new range of customers where international travel is now an option

- the easing in monetary policy by central banks

- strong corporate profitability outside of the financial sector


Implications for the Travel & Tourism Industry

  • Deteriorating economic conditions, particularly in the housing and credit markets across the globe, increasing concerns about prospects for the travel & tourism industry in 2008

  • But the global slowdown is likely to be limited with a contained impact on the industry

  • US dollar’s weakness is curtailing the travel plans of residents of dollar-bloc countries but boosting their inbound tourism

  • Higher energy prices are a two-pronged challenge – they squeeze household budgets and raise the cost of a key input for the industry


Direction of forecast revisions


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