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Initial Claims vs. Google Trends. According to the NBER, the current recession started ... Monthly Sales vs. Google Trends at Second Week of each month ...

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Nowcasting

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European Banking & Financial Forum 2010, Mar 23

Nowcasting

Using The Wisdom Of The Crowds To Avoid Panic, Hype and Data Lag

Mohammad Gawdat

Managing Director – Southern & Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa

Head Of Emerging Markets Council


Three quick ideas


Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example

1

A Leading Indicator For End Of A Recession


Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example

1

Also a good predictor of personal finance distress

Personal finance distress shows high correlation with initial claims.

  • Unemployment rate in US is highest since early 80s recession.

  • Risk measures in credit market increase along with unemployment rate.

  • Initial Claims is primary leading indicator in Labor market.

  • So unemployment data is useful in other setors as well...


  • Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example

    • CareerBuilder

    • Kelly Services

    • Manpower

    • Temp Agencies

    • Robert Half

    • Spherion

    • Aerotek

    • Walmart jobs

    • Appleone

    • Social Security

    • Social Security Office Locations

    • Social Security Administration

    • Unemployment Benefits

    • Social Security Disability

    • Social Security Gov

    • Unemployment Office

    • Food Stamps

    • Department of Labor

    • Monster

    • Indeed

    • Jobs

    • Job Search

    • Resume

    • Job Search Engines

    • Linkedin

    • Hotjobs

    • Cover Letter

    1

    Search Behaviour Also Changes During A Recession

    Jobs

    Welfare & Unemployment

    Recruiting & Staffing


    Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example

    1

    ... And That Gets reflected In Google Trends

    Source: Internal data


    Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example

    1

    Initial Claims vs. Google Trends

    Recession Starts

    • According to the NBER, the current recession started December 2007.

    • National unemployment rate passed 5% in mid 2008 and search queries on

      [Welfare and Unemployment] increased at same time.

    Window For Long Term Model

    Window For Short Term Model

    Source: Internal data


    Nowcasting – Predicting The Present – Auto Sales Example

    2

    Nowcasting Competitive Performance

    Source: Internal data


    Nowcasting – Predicting The Present – Auto Sales Example

    2

    Auto Sales by Make (Top 9 Make by Sales) Monthly Sales vs. Google Trends at Second Week of each month

    • Source:Automotive News Data Center


    Nowcasting – Predicting The Present – Auto Sales Example

    2

    Actual vs. Fitted Sales (Top 9 Make by Sales)

    • Source:Automotive News Data Center


    Myth Or Reality – Automotive / Travel Examples

    3

    US Automakers vs. Consumer Preference

    Source: Internal data


    Myth Or Reality – Travel Examples

    3

    Are Germans Traveling Less?

    Source: Internal data


    Thank You


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