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Genre (Action/Suspense, Comedy, Drama, Sci-fi/Fantasy, Other... musicals & animated) ... Recommend a Summer Action movie with content limited to PG-13 ...

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factors affecting

Factors Affecting

Hollywood

Blockbusters

Jeffry Ahlvin, Darren Doi

Eric Luckwald, Charles Rabkin

Micah Witt, Jong Woo, Calvin Yeung

November 29, 2004

what are we doing
What are we doing?
  • The Big-shot hollywood producers want to know what factors most affect gross revenue of their blockbuster films.
  • We can help.
dataset
Dataset
  • US movies grossing over $150 Million
    • Released Since 1990
  • Four Factors
    • Genre (Action/Suspense, Comedy, Drama, Sci-fi/Fantasy, Other… musicals & animated)
    • Release Season
    • MPAA Rating (G, PG, PG13, R… no XXX)
    • Production Budget
  • Data source: www.the-numbers.com
technical regression
Technical – Regression
  • Effects of budget & genre variables
    • Drama appears most significant
technical regression6
Technical – Regression
  • Similarly… Rating and Season regressions indicate:
    • PG
    • Release in the Winter

Problem 1: Titanic is skewing the data

Problem 2: Factors not independent

technical alternate approach
Technical – Alternate Approach
  • Utilize contingency tables
technical alternate approach8
Technical – Alternate Approach
  • Observed tables for other Factors

PG-13 Action released in summer is most probable to exceed $150M

results
Results
  • How does U.S. Gross depend on Budget for selected factors
    • PG13
    • Summer
    • Action
  • Predicted $0.86 Revenue/$Budget
conclusions
Conclusions
  • Recommend a Summer Action movie with content limited to PG-13
    • Inherently open to broadest audience
      • No effective age limits
      • School out
      • Action movies have high repeat appeal
  • Significant limitation of analysis
    • No failures included… big budgets with revenue below $150M
      • Results are conditional on a good script
future analysis
Future Analysis

Who should star in the movie?

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