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Genre (Action/Suspense, Comedy, Drama, Sci-fi/Fantasy, Other... musicals & animated) ... Recommend a Summer Action movie with content limited to PG-13 ...

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Factors Affecting

Hollywood

Blockbusters

Jeffry Ahlvin, Darren Doi

Eric Luckwald, Charles Rabkin

Micah Witt, Jong Woo, Calvin Yeung

November 29, 2004


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What are we doing?

  • The Big-shot hollywood producers want to know what factors most affect gross revenue of their blockbuster films.

  • We can help.


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Dataset

  • US movies grossing over $150 Million

    • Released Since 1990

  • Four Factors

    • Genre (Action/Suspense, Comedy, Drama, Sci-fi/Fantasy, Other… musicals & animated)

    • Release Season

    • MPAA Rating (G, PG, PG13, R… no XXX)

    • Production Budget

  • Data source: www.the-numbers.com



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Technical – Regression

  • Effects of budget & genre variables

    • Drama appears most significant


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Technical – Regression

  • Similarly… Rating and Season regressions indicate:

    • PG

    • Release in the Winter

Problem 1: Titanic is skewing the data

Problem 2: Factors not independent


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Technical – Alternate Approach

  • Utilize contingency tables


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Technical – Alternate Approach

  • Observed tables for other Factors

PG-13 Action released in summer is most probable to exceed $150M


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Results

  • How does U.S. Gross depend on Budget for selected factors

    • PG13

    • Summer

    • Action

  • Predicted $0.86 Revenue/$Budget


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Conclusions

  • Recommend a Summer Action movie with content limited to PG-13

    • Inherently open to broadest audience

      • No effective age limits

      • School out

      • Action movies have high repeat appeal

  • Significant limitation of analysis

    • No failures included… big budgets with revenue below $150M

      • Results are conditional on a good script


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Future Analysis

Who should star in the movie?


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