Low Fertility - Global Phenomenon
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Low Fertility - Global Phenomenon. Population in Countries With Low Fertility. Decline or Growth, 2005-2050 Percent. Country (average number of children per woman). Thailand (1.7). China (1.6). Armenia (1.3). Trinidad & Tobago (1.6). Italy (1.3). Russia (1.4).

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Population in Countries With Low Fertility

Decline or Growth, 2005-2050 Percent

Country (average number of children per woman)

Thailand (1.7)

China (1.6)

Armenia (1.3)

Trinidad & Tobago (1.6)

Italy (1.3)

Russia (1.4)

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.


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  • All countries shown have below “replacement level” childbearing—the level required for population to ultimately stop growing or declining.

  • Yet, half will continue to grow and half are projected to decline by 2050.


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  • This disparity is due to the effects of population momentum. In populations with a young age structure, even if fertility declines sharply, the numbers of children will continue to increase for a generation as the cohorts of young people pass through their reproductive years.

  • Consequently, populations will continue to grow for decades even if fertility is instantly reduced to replacement level.

  • On the other hand, some low-fertility countries are subject to negative population momentum. Their populations have aged enough to result in relatively small cohorts under age 30, and therefore even if fertility were to rise to replacement level, population size would decline for sometime.


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Factors related to Low Fertility

  • Economic:

  • the rising material and non-material costs of parenting

  • Rising value of time for women

  • Hamper career / potential income

  • “Psychic” costs

  • Fertility changes are based on diffusion of changing ideas

  • Individualism

  • Consumerism

  • Material preferences/goals over early marriage, family building.

  • Sex-role revolution

    • Emancipation from traditional sex roles, alternatives.



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Low Fertility - South Korea

Today’s birth rate is extraordinarily low, and heading lower. This is an Asia-wide trend, but South Korea’s has fallen more than most. The total fertility rate of South Korean women (ie, the average number of births they can expect) has dropped to just 1.26 (see chart 1), down from 4.5 in 1970 and 1.5 in 2000. That is roughly half the rate at which a population replaces itself. In other words, the child-bearing generation 25 years from now will be roughly half the size of the current one. Even Japan, famous for its dearth of children, has a higher fertility rate, at 1.3.


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Low Fertility - South Korea

For South Korean women, as for those elsewhere in Asia, this appears to be a good thing, offering them greater security and more autonomy than ever before within a Confucian family structure that has historically been hierarchical and male-dominated. Even better, South Korea’s mortality rate has also fallen steeply, and people can now expect to live 30 years longer than they did at the start of the country’s modernisation in 1960.


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Low Fertility - South Korea

Yet the fall in the fertility rate may reflect dissatisfactions too: notably, over the difficulties faced by women who want both to work and to raise a family. Almost everyone still gets married in South Korea. In other words, the fertility rate is falling because more women are postponing marriage to nearer the end of their reproductive lives. That is partly because the burden of raising children still falls heavily on women, whereas men are consumed with work, which in South Korea, as in Japan, entails long hours and drinking sessions late into the night.


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