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Imperiled Populations II. 10 Sept 2009. Pacific Walrus - under review for ESA listing -. Pacific Walrus - under review for ESA listing -. What would you do?. Pinchot. Muir. Leopold. Demographic Stochasticity.

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Pacific walrus under review for esa listing l.jpg
Pacific Walrus- under review for ESA listing -


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Pacific Walrus- under review for ESA listing -

What would you do?

Pinchot

Muir

Leopold


Demographic stochasticity l.jpg
Demographic Stochasticity

Random fluctuations in demographic parameters (birth & death rate, immigration & emigration rate, sex ratios, or age structure).

Allee effects become increasingly problematic at small population sizes:

probability of encountering mates

communal mating activity

cooperative/group defense & hunting success

communal insulation & nesting


Environmental stochasticity l.jpg
Environmental Stochasticity

Fluctuations in reproduction and survival due to:

Habitat alterations

Increased interspecific pressure

Competition

Predation

Parasitism

Disease

Natural disasters


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Black stilts lay eggs in river bed gravels. Increasing frequency of flooding, due to rapid glacial melt, causes high egg mortality.


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Environmental Stochasticity frequency of flooding, due to rapid glacial melt, causes high egg mortality.

Fluctuations in reproduction and survival due to:

Habitat alterations

Increased interspecific pressure

Competition

Predation

Disease

Natural disasters


Slide8 l.jpg

Competitive interactions between trout are influenced by water temperature.

Come and get it!

!#@?


Environmental stochasticity9 l.jpg
Environmental Stochasticity water temperature.

Fluctuations in reproduction and survival due to:

Habitat alterations

Increased interspecific pressure

Competition

Predation

Disease

Natural disasters


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Tropical frogs are highly vulnerable to water temperature. chytridiomycosis. Chytrid fungus thrives within cloud forests. Climate change drives cloud formation at higher elevations.


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Environmental Stochasticity water temperature.

Fluctuations in reproduction and survival due to:

Habitat alterations

Increased interspecific pressure

Competition

Predation

Disease

Natural disasters



Population viability analysis pva l.jpg
Population Viability Analysis (PVA) uncertainties?

  • A mathematical modeling procedure used to determine whether a population is likely to become extinct within a given time frame.


Population growth equation l.jpg
Population Growth Equation uncertainties?

Nt+1 = Nt + B - D + I - E

Where:

B = birth rate

D = death rate

I = immigration rate

E = emigration rate

t = current time interval (e.g. this year)

t+1 = next time interval (e.g. next year)


Population viability analysis l.jpg
Population Viability Analysis uncertainties?

Deterministic Models

Variables

Model Output

Initial N = 500

Nt+1 = Nt + B - D + I - E

Birth rate = 60 / yr

Death rate = 60 / yr

Probability of extinction within next 100 years:

~0%

Immigration = 20 / yr

Emigration = 20 / yr


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Doctors say that Nordberg has a 50 - 50 chance of living. . . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.


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Population Viability Analysis . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

Stochastic Models

Probability Distribution

Model Output

Variables

Initial N = 500

How often does the population survive:

10 yrs

50 yrs

100 yrs

etc. . .

Birth rate = ?


Probability distributions l.jpg
Probability Distributions . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

6

Number of possibilities

0

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Combination


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Probability Distributions . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. - Deaths by age in the U.S. -

% of deaths

Age


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Population Viability Analysis . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. - deterministic vs. stochastic models -

Stochastic Model

Probability Distribution

Model Output

Variables

(many repetitions)

Initial N = 500

How often does the population survive:

10 yrs

50 yrs

100 yrs

etc. . .

Birth rate = ?

Death rate = ?

Fires, etc. = ?


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PVA in action . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. - the Northern Spotted Owl -

Video A

Video B


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PVA in action . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. - the Northern Spotted Owl -

Population Size

birth rate

death rate

emigration

immigration

barred owls

West Nile V.

logging

fires

nest predation


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PVA in action . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. - the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat (33 grey hexes) is randomly scattered.


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PVA in action . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. - the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat (33 grey hexes) is clustered in a single location.


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PVA in action . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. - the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat clusters surrounded by marginal habitat


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www.vortex9.org/vortex.html . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.


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Minimum Viable Population (MVP) . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

The smallest population size that can be predicted to have a very high chance of persisting for the foreseeable future.


Pva in action the northern spotted owl29 l.jpg
PVA in Action . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. - the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat (33 grey hexes) is randomly scattered.


Pva in action the northern spotted owl30 l.jpg
PVA in Action . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. - the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat clusters surrounded by marginal habitat


Pva mvp can suggest how large populations should be what if existing populations are too small l.jpg
PVA & MVP can suggest how large populations should be. . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. What if existing populations are too small?


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Introductions / Reintroductions . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. - Northern Rocky Mtn. Wolf -

Flashdance is the greatest movie ever!

(play video)


The logistics of animal introductions reintroductions l.jpg
The Logistics of (Animal) Introductions/Reintroductions . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

  • Sufficient habitat

  • Sufficient food

  • Genetic diversity

  • Veterinary medicine

  • Social dynamics & learned behaviors

  • Long-term funding & political support


Slide36 l.jpg

Wolves do kill. . . . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.


Slide38 l.jpg

. . . and cultural norms run deep . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.


Slide39 l.jpg

Ex-Situ Conservation . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. - African Black Rhino -

(click)

(click)


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Amphibians are dropping like flies . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

(click)


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Ex-Situ Conservation . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. - The Amphibian Ark -

ensuring the global survival of amphibians, focusing on those that cannot currently be safeguarded in nature


Slide42 l.jpg

Ex-Situ Conservation . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that. - The Amphibian Ark -

ensuring the global survival of amphibians, focusing on those that cannot currently be safeguarded in nature

Amphibian Conservation Action Plan

(www.amphibianark.org/pdf/ACAP.pdf)


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Reading Assignments . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

Read text p. 455-462.


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