Imperiled Populations II - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Imperiled populations ii l.jpg
Download
1 / 43

  • 293 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: Pets / Animals

Imperiled Populations II. 10 Sept 2009. Pacific Walrus - under review for ESA listing -. Pacific Walrus - under review for ESA listing -. What would you do?. Pinchot. Muir. Leopold. Demographic Stochasticity.

I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.

Download Presentation

Imperiled Populations II

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Imperiled populations ii l.jpg

Imperiled Populations II

10 Sept 2009


Pacific walrus under review for esa listing l.jpg

Pacific Walrus- under review for ESA listing -


Pacific walrus under review for esa listing3 l.jpg

Pacific Walrus- under review for ESA listing -

What would you do?

Pinchot

Muir

Leopold


Demographic stochasticity l.jpg

Demographic Stochasticity

Random fluctuations in demographic parameters (birth & death rate, immigration & emigration rate, sex ratios, or age structure).

Allee effects become increasingly problematic at small population sizes:

probability of encountering mates

communal mating activity

cooperative/group defense & hunting success

communal insulation & nesting


Environmental stochasticity l.jpg

Environmental Stochasticity

Fluctuations in reproduction and survival due to:

Habitat alterations

Increased interspecific pressure

Competition

Predation

Parasitism

Disease

Natural disasters


Slide6 l.jpg

Black stilts lay eggs in river bed gravels. Increasing frequency of flooding, due to rapid glacial melt, causes high egg mortality.


Environmental stochasticity7 l.jpg

Environmental Stochasticity

Fluctuations in reproduction and survival due to:

Habitat alterations

Increased interspecific pressure

Competition

Predation

Disease

Natural disasters


Slide8 l.jpg

Competitive interactions between trout are influenced by water temperature.

Come and get it!

!#@?


Environmental stochasticity9 l.jpg

Environmental Stochasticity

Fluctuations in reproduction and survival due to:

Habitat alterations

Increased interspecific pressure

Competition

Predation

Disease

Natural disasters


Slide10 l.jpg

Tropical frogs are highly vulnerable to chytridiomycosis. Chytrid fungus thrives within cloud forests. Climate change drives cloud formation at higher elevations.


Environmental stochasticity11 l.jpg

Environmental Stochasticity

Fluctuations in reproduction and survival due to:

Habitat alterations

Increased interspecific pressure

Competition

Predation

Disease

Natural disasters


How do you plan for these demographic and environmental uncertainties l.jpg

How do you plan for these demographic and environmental uncertainties?


Population viability analysis pva l.jpg

Population Viability Analysis (PVA)

  • A mathematical modeling procedure used to determine whether a population is likely to become extinct within a given time frame.


Population growth equation l.jpg

Population Growth Equation

Nt+1 = Nt + B - D + I - E

Where:

B = birth rate

D = death rate

I = immigration rate

E = emigration rate

t = current time interval (e.g. this year)

t+1 = next time interval (e.g. next year)


Population viability analysis l.jpg

Population Viability Analysis

Deterministic Models

Variables

Model Output

Initial N = 500

Nt+1 = Nt + B - D + I - E

Birth rate = 60 / yr

Death rate = 60 / yr

Probability of extinction within next 100 years:

~0%

Immigration = 20 / yr

Emigration = 20 / yr


Slide17 l.jpg

Doctors say that Nordberg has a 50 - 50 chance of living. . . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.


Population viability analysis18 l.jpg

Population Viability Analysis

Stochastic Models

Probability Distribution

Model Output

Variables

Initial N = 500

How often does the population survive:

10 yrs

50 yrs

100 yrs

etc. . .

Birth rate = ?


Probability distributions l.jpg

Probability Distributions

6

Number of possibilities

0

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Combination


Probability distributions deaths by age in the u s l.jpg

Probability Distributions- Deaths by age in the U.S. -

% of deaths

Age


Population viability analysis deterministic vs stochastic models l.jpg

Population Viability Analysis- deterministic vs. stochastic models -

Stochastic Model

Probability Distribution

Model Output

Variables

(many repetitions)

Initial N = 500

How often does the population survive:

10 yrs

50 yrs

100 yrs

etc. . .

Birth rate = ?

Death rate = ?

Fires, etc. = ?


Pva in action the northern spotted owl l.jpg

PVA in action- the Northern Spotted Owl -

Video A

Video B


Pva in action the northern spotted owl23 l.jpg

PVA in action- the Northern Spotted Owl -

Population Size

birth rate

death rate

emigration

immigration

barred owls

West Nile V.

logging

fires

nest predation


Pva in action the northern spotted owl24 l.jpg

PVA in action- the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat (33 grey hexes) is randomly scattered.


Pva in action the northern spotted owl25 l.jpg

PVA in action- the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat (33 grey hexes) is clustered in a single location.


Pva in action the northern spotted owl26 l.jpg

PVA in action- the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat clusters surrounded by marginal habitat


Slide27 l.jpg

www.vortex9.org/vortex.html


Minimum viable population mvp l.jpg

Minimum Viable Population (MVP)

The smallest population size that can be predicted to have a very high chance of persisting for the foreseeable future.


Pva in action the northern spotted owl29 l.jpg

PVA in Action- the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat (33 grey hexes) is randomly scattered.


Pva in action the northern spotted owl30 l.jpg

PVA in Action- the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat clusters surrounded by marginal habitat


Pva mvp can suggest how large populations should be what if existing populations are too small l.jpg

PVA & MVP can suggest how large populations should be.What if existing populations are too small?


Slide32 l.jpg

Introductions / Reintroductions- Northern Rocky Mtn. Wolf -

Flashdance is the greatest movie ever!

(play video)


The logistics of animal introductions reintroductions l.jpg

The Logistics of (Animal) Introductions/Reintroductions

  • Sufficient habitat

  • Sufficient food

  • Genetic diversity

  • Veterinary medicine

  • Social dynamics & learned behaviors

  • Long-term funding & political support


Slide36 l.jpg

Wolves do kill. . .


Slide38 l.jpg

. . . and cultural norms run deep


Slide39 l.jpg

Ex-Situ Conservation- African Black Rhino -

(click)

(click)


Slide40 l.jpg

Amphibians are dropping like flies

(click)


Slide41 l.jpg

Ex-Situ Conservation- The Amphibian Ark -

ensuring the global survival of amphibians, focusing on those that cannot currently be safeguarded in nature


Slide42 l.jpg

Ex-Situ Conservation- The Amphibian Ark -

ensuring the global survival of amphibians, focusing on those that cannot currently be safeguarded in nature

Amphibian Conservation Action Plan

(www.amphibianark.org/pdf/ACAP.pdf)


Reading assignments l.jpg

Reading Assignments

Read text p. 455-462.


  • Login