From iran to morocco development challenges in the middle east and north africa
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From Iran to Morocco Development Challenges in the Middle East and North Africa. Qaiser Khan, Senior Economist, The World Bank Presented at Colby College April 21, 2003. Djibouti. Middle East & North Africa Region. Population of the Middle East and North Africa, 1000-2035. 700,000,000.

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From Iran to Morocco Development Challenges in the Middle East and North Africa

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From iran to morocco development challenges in the middle east and north africa l.jpg

From Iran to Morocco Development Challenges in the Middle East and North Africa

Qaiser Khan, Senior Economist,

The World Bank

Presented at Colby College

April 21, 2003


Middle east north africa region l.jpg

Djibouti

Middle East & North Africa Region


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Population of the Middle East and North Africa, 1000-2035

700,000,000

600,000,000

500,000,000

Population

400,000,000

300,000,000

200,000,000

100,000,000

0

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2035

Year


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Population Growth 2000-2030


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Yemen

411

Djibouti

802

Syria

1,105

Morocco

1,224

Egypt

1,253

Palestine

1,363

Jordan

1,572

Algeria

1,648

Iran

1,943

Tunisia

2,051

Lebanon

3,609

Oman

6,939

Saudi Arabia

7,300

Bahrain

8,884

Qatar

12,825

Kuwait

16,596

UAE

19,112

OECD

25,956

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Per Capita GDP in US$

MENA Per Capita GDP, 1997


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Population living on lessthan $1 a day

Source; WDI, 2000/2001


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Population living onless than $2 a day

Source: WDI, 2000/2001


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Projected Annual Growth in Real Per Capita GDP by Region, 2003-2010

Source: Economic Policy and Prospects group, World Bank, Nov 2001


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Public Social Spending (% GDP)

*Includes food subsidies, cash and in-kind transfers, public works, public pension, and housing

Source: Various World Bank reports and recent Social Safety Net Updates (1995-2000)


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16

14

12

10

%

8

6

4

2

0

OECD

SSA

SA

MENA

LAC

ECA

EAP

Unemployment Rates by Region

Source: World Bank


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Role of the World Bank

Conferences

Policy Advice

Shared Experiences

Discussion

Training

Borrowing countries

Beneficiaries

Private sector

Foundations

NGOs

Civil society

Grants

Operational Analysis

Credits

Case Studies

Loans

Bilateral Aid

Research

Own Resources

Analysis

Financing


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Role of the State in the Economy in MENA

  • In most OECD countries the state plays a limited role in the economy outside the social sectors

  • In MENA the state plays a major role (except Lebanon and possibly Tunisia and Morocco) and even in many countries where there is a large private sector – this has developed as a result of state favors as ruling groups distribute favors among supporters.

  • The state led economy brought many early positives to the region but inefficiency has made them a burden.

  • Apart from efficiency the state has focused on large capital intensive operations rather than the job creating small and medium enterprise with resulting high unemployment.

  • The challenges is reducing the role of the direct and indirect role of the state in the economy and let a more dynamic private sector develop and create jobs.


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Types of Economies in MENA

  • Low income countries under stress (Djibouti and Yemen)

  • Middle Income Countries (e.g. Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, West Bank & Gaza, Syria, Tunisia)

  • High Income Capital surplus economies (Bahrain, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE)

  • The Bank operates in all of them with the exception of Libya


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Trends in Infant Mortality,1970 to 1999 (per 1,000 live births)

Source: World Development Indicators


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Trends in Life Expectancy1970-1999 (years of life)

Source: World Development Indicators


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Infant Mortality Rates, 1999

Deaths per 1000 live births


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Global Trends in Infant Mortality


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Life Expectancy at Birth, 1999


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Renewable Water Resourcesper Capita, by Region

Source: World Bank


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Mother’s Education and Infant Mortality

  • Children of educated mothers are less likely to die


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Ratio of Girls to Boys in Primary & Secondary Education

Source: UNESCO – World Bank SIMA MDG-MENA Website


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MENA Youth Illiteracy Rates(% aged 15-24)


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MENA Adult Illiteracy Rates(% aged 15 & above, 1998)


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Female Genital Cutting

Source: Yemen Demographic & MCH survey 1997;

Egypt Demographic & Health Survey 1995;

Djibouti MOH report for USAID FGC Symposium


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Regional HIV/AIDS Statistics and Features,End of 1999

* The proportion of adults (15 to 49 years of age) living with HIV/AIDS in 1999

** Hetero: heterosexual transmission – IDU: transmission through injecting drug use – MSM: sexual transmission among men who have sex with men


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Reported AIDS cases per 100,000 in selected countries in the MENA Region, with East African comparisons


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New HIV Infections in MENA


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HIV Epidemic Levels in the MENA Region

  • Type 1: Extensive testing, consistently low rates, but no consistent, systematic testing (or reporting) of high-risk groups

    • Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Iraq

  • Type 2: Accumulating levels of infection; gradual and slow; some rapid increase in identified high-risk groups

    • Iran, Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Bahrain, UAE,

      Qatar, and Kuwait

  • Type 3: Very poor levels of information, apparently growing epidemic, probably concentrated in high-risk groups

    • Libya, Algeria, Yemen

  • Type 4: High levels of HIV in general population, although solid epidemiological data are lacking

    • Djibouti, Sudan

  • Source:OVERVIEW OF THE HIV/AIDS SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST and NORTH AFRICA REGION


  • Mena military vs health expenditures as a share of gdp 1999 l.jpg

    MENA Military vs. Health Expenditures as a Share of GDP, 1999


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