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Robert Atlas NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory February 5, 2008. Issue. Hurricanes represent one of the Nation’s greatest environmental threats Increasing vulnerability along the Nation’s coast
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NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
February 5, 2008
The time is now for NOAA to lead an aggressive effort with commensurate investments to improve its hurricane forecasting capability.
HFIP “stretch” goals for model guidance for rapid intensification
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)
Modeling and Data Assimilation
Observing Strategies and Observations
Rainfall and Inland Flooding
Preparedness and Response
* Addresses most HIRWG Recommendations
Improve Hurricane Forecast System (HFS)/ Global Forecast System (GFS) to improve intensity and track forecasts
Develop, test, and implement:
Near (~5yrs) and long term (~10-15yrs) high resolution HFS
Next-generation high-resolution GFS to improve track forecasts
HFS, GFS and multi-model ensembles to quantify and bound uncertainty
Next-generation storm surge modeling system
Invest in research on physical processes, ensemble modeling, and post-processing for developing probabilistic forecast guidance
Increase high performance computing (HPC) capability
Increase efficiency of transition from research to operations
A capability is needed to evaluate the utility of different observing platforms and instrumentsand advise NOAA on its observing investments for improvements in tropical cyclone analysis, forecasting, and operational modeling.
Capability is directly relevant to QuikSCAT evaluation and to DWL
Observing tools: Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), airborne Doppler radar, QuikSCAT
Applications such as: Wind speed probabilities, Rapid Intensity Index (RII), DOD/NOAA Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system
Forecast product enhancements: Consensus ensembles, model confidence
III. Expand and improve forecaster tools and applications to add value to NWP output
Fund internal and external applied research to develop new operational tools
Enhance Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) to transition projects into operations
Improve model guidance, observing capabilities and related data assimilation schemes
The overarching goal of this project is improved forecasts and reduced uncertainty of tropical cyclones forecasts to enhance mitigation and preparedness by decision makers at all levels of government and by individuals.
Dean RI event:
12 UTC 17 August - 03 UTC 18 August
Felix became Cat 1 at 0300 UTC 2 Sep
and Cat 5 by 0000 UTC 3 Sep
Felix intensified from Cat 1 to Cat 5 in < 21 hours
*Data from NHC (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/FELIX.shtml?)