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Crime Analysis for Problem Solvers Problem Oriented Policing Conference Charlotte, NC October 2004 #1 How should crime data be used? Crime is relative 2003 Data Target 4 Walmart Auto Theft Vehicle Burglary Total Vehicles Stolen: 30 % Recovered: 50% Avg. Time at Lot: 109 min.

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Crime analysis for problem solvers l.jpg

Crime Analysis for Problem Solvers

Problem Oriented Policing Conference

Charlotte, NC

October 2004




Slide4 l.jpg

Target 4

Walmart

Auto Theft

Vehicle Burglary

Total Vehicles Stolen: 30

% Recovered: 50%

Avg. Time at Lot: 109 min.

Avg. Vehicle Year: 1988

Top Makes/Models

Toyotas & Nissans

Walmart had 18 incidents predominantly between 12:00 – 20:00. The top makes include Fords and Hondas.

Most Common Lot Addresses within Target Area #4

Walmart – 75 N. Broadway

Best Buy – 59 N. Broadway

Auto Theft Time of Day

Auto Theft Day of Week






2 make better use of calls for service data l.jpg

#2 Make better use of Calls-for-Service data


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Top 10 Calls for ServiceChula Vista 2003

  • False Burglary Alarm 8,882 12%

  • Disturbance by Person 3,977 5%

  • Domestic Violence 3,692 5%

  • Traffic Collision 3,680 5%

  • Noise Disturbance 2,759 4%

  • 911 Hang Up 2,397 3%

  • Vehicle Theft 2,327 3%

  • Petty Theft 2,091 3%

  • Vandalism 1,983 3%

  • Suspicious Person 1,806 2%

    Total 33,594 44%






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Too Little Data

Use at least 15-20 per category.




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#4 What type of data are most appropriate?


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Estimating Magnitude of the Problem

  • Complaints to police 31

  • Arrests 201

  • Suspects 148

  • Chronic offenders 60


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Estimating Offenses

  • Chronic offenders 60

    • Tricks per day 3 – 5

    • Days per week 5

    • Weeks per year 50

  • Estimated transactions 67,500

  • Clearance rate 3/10 %



Utilize narratives l.jpg
Utilize Narratives

  • To determine usefulness of data

  • To understand context of a problem

  • Content analysis and coding for additional statistical analysis


Example construction site burglary difficulty index four characteristics l.jpg
Example: Construction Site BurglaryDifficulty Index (Four Characteristics)


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Difficulty Index: Initial Analysis

72%

Port St. Lucie, FL Construction Site Burglary Analysis: N=155


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Difficulty Index: Preliminary Analysis

Port St. Lucie, FL Construction Site Burglary Analysis: N=155-158


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#6 When In-House Data Isn’t Enough



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Access Control: A Critical Parking Lot Feature

Number of Auto Thefts

  • Las Americas Safer than CV Mall in Other Ways:

  • -69% burglary

  • -60% fights/disturb.

  • -38% grand theft

  • -84% petty theft

  • zero robberies (16 at Chula Vista Mall)


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Traffic Congestion Problem: Who Drives to School and Why?

AM Drivers and Walkers

Paseo

Bus Stops

= All grades

= K/1st

Park


Slide32 l.jpg

Observations of Drop-Off/Pick-up Times Explain Afternoon Crunch

School end time:

3:00

School start time:

8:30



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Volume Outliers: 10 Worst Parking Lots CrunchAccount for 15% of all Auto Thefts in City




Mapping l.jpg
Mapping Crunch

  • Use mapping sparingly

  • Should not be the central method used to direct police efforts

  • Mapping most useful for bringing data together, scanning, and presenting analysis results.





Slide41 l.jpg

Example: Presentation of Results Crunch

San Diego County Recovery Rates

2001 Recovery Rates - Cars

2001 Recovery Rates - Trucks


Slide42 l.jpg

Example: Presentation of Results Crunch

HIGHWAY

closed section

CAB STAND

P

P

NEW CAB STAND

Tønsberg downtown area

P

P

Moved barristers

P

P

MOVED BUS STAND

TØNSBERG BRIDGE

P=parking lot

=no admission

From: Gypsy Cabs in Tønsberg – a Case for Problem-Oriented Policing

Johannes Knutsson, National Police Academy and Knut-Erik Søvik, Vestfold Police District



Test relationships l.jpg
Test Relationships Crunch

  • Ad hoc reasoning

  • Use of statistics

  • Statistical vs. practical significance


Slide45 l.jpg

Date Span Crunch

Port St. Lucie, FL Construction Site Burglary Analysis


Slide46 l.jpg

Time Span Crunch

*Statistically significant at the .01 level **58% of the CSBTs has a date span of 0 or 1

Port St. Lucie, FL Construction Site Burglary Analysis: N=155-158



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Effort to Reduce Traffic Collisions Through Citations Crunch

Results:

-Very weak correlation between cites and collisions

-Not statistically significant

Chula Vista Police Department


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Domestic Violence Intervention Crunch

Intervention Began



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Anti-Theft Device: CrunchPassive Immobilizers in Honda Accords

Year Immobilizers Introduced Into Accords


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Discussion and Questions Crunch

Contact Information:

Deborah Weisel

[email protected]

Karin Schmerler

[email protected]

Rachel Boba

[email protected]


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