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Crime Analysis for Problem Solvers Problem Oriented Policing Conference Charlotte, NC October 2004 #1 How should crime data be used? Crime is relative 2003 Data Target 4 Walmart Auto Theft Vehicle Burglary Total Vehicles Stolen: 30 % Recovered: 50% Avg. Time at Lot: 109 min.

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Crime Analysis for Problem Solvers

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Crime analysis for problem solvers l.jpg

Crime Analysis for Problem Solvers

Problem Oriented Policing Conference

Charlotte, NC

October 2004


1 how should crime data be used l.jpg

#1 How should crime data be used?


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Crime is relative

2003 Data


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Target 4

Walmart

Auto Theft

Vehicle Burglary

Total Vehicles Stolen: 30

% Recovered: 50%

Avg. Time at Lot: 109 min.

Avg. Vehicle Year: 1988

Top Makes/Models

Toyotas & Nissans

Walmart had 18 incidents predominantly between 12:00 – 20:00. The top makes include Fords and Hondas.

Most Common Lot Addresses within Target Area #4

Walmart – 75 N. Broadway

Best Buy – 59 N. Broadway

Auto Theft Time of Day

Auto Theft Day of Week


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Motor vehicle theft trend


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Types of motor vehicle theft


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Recovered vehicles


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Recovery by vehicle type


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#2 Make better use of Calls-for-Service data


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Top 10 Calls for ServiceChula Vista 2003

  • False Burglary Alarm8,882 12%

  • Disturbance by Person3,977 5%

  • Domestic Violence3,692 5%

  • Traffic Collision3,680 5%

  • Noise Disturbance2,759 4%

  • 911 Hang Up2,397 3%

  • Vehicle Theft2,327 3%

  • Petty Theft2,091 3%

  • Vandalism1,983 3%

  • Suspicious Person1,806 2%

    Total 33,594 44%


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Domestic Disturbance Calls


3 what amount of data should be used l.jpg

#3 What amount of data should be used?


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Too Much Data


Miami l.jpg

Miami


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Too Little Data

Use at least 15-20 per category.


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Drug-related calls


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Adding data


4 what type of data are most appropriate l.jpg

#4 What type of data are most appropriate?


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Estimating Magnitude of the Problem

  • Complaints to police31

  • Arrests201

  • Suspects148

  • Chronic offenders60


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Estimating Offenses

  • Chronic offenders60

    • Tricks per day 3 – 5

    • Days per week5

    • Weeks per year50

  • Estimated transactions67,500

  • Clearance rate 3/10 %


5 how else can in house data be used l.jpg

#5 How else can In-house data be used?


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Utilize Narratives

  • To determine usefulness of data

  • To understand context of a problem

  • Content analysis and coding for additional statistical analysis


Example construction site burglary difficulty index four characteristics l.jpg

Example: Construction Site BurglaryDifficulty Index (Four Characteristics)


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Difficulty Index: Initial Analysis

72%

Port St. Lucie, FL Construction Site Burglary Analysis: N=155


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Difficulty Index: Preliminary Analysis

Port St. Lucie, FL Construction Site Burglary Analysis: N=155-158


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#6 When In-House Data Isn’t Enough


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Auto Theft Offender Interviews


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Access Control: A Critical Parking Lot Feature

Number of Auto Thefts

  • Las Americas Safer than CV Mall in Other Ways:

  • -69% burglary

  • -60% fights/disturb.

  • -38% grand theft

  • -84% petty theft

  • zero robberies (16 at Chula Vista Mall)


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Traffic Congestion Problem: Who Drives to School and Why?

AM Drivers and Walkers

Paseo

Bus Stops

= All grades

= K/1st

Park


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Observations of Drop-Off/Pick-up Times Explain Afternoon Crunch

School end time:

3:00

School start time:

8:30


7 what analysis is most useful to police managers l.jpg

#7 What Analysis is Most Useful to Police Managers?


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Volume Outliers: 10 Worst Parking Lots Account for 15% of all Auto Thefts in City


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Rate Outliers: Vehicle Theft Rate Per Spot vs. Top 10 Lots

Median: 3.1


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#8 How can I use mapping to understand a problem?


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Mapping

  • Use mapping sparingly

  • Should not be the central method used to direct police efforts

  • Mapping most useful for bringing data together, scanning, and presenting analysis results.


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Should we deploy officers based on this map?


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Example: Scanning


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Example: Bring Data Together


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Example: Presentation of Results

San Diego County Recovery Rates

2001 Recovery Rates - Cars

2001 Recovery Rates - Trucks


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Example: Presentation of Results

HIGHWAY

closed section

CAB STAND

P

P

NEW CAB STAND

Tønsberg downtown area

P

P

Moved barristers

P

P

MOVED BUS STAND

TØNSBERG BRIDGE

P=parking lot

=no admission

From: Gypsy Cabs in Tønsberg – a Case for Problem-Oriented Policing

Johannes Knutsson, National Police Academy and Knut-Erik Søvik, Vestfold Police District


9 how do i know there s a difference l.jpg

#9 How do I know there’s a difference?


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Test Relationships

  • Ad hoc reasoning

  • Use of statistics

  • Statistical vs. practical significance


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Date Span

Port St. Lucie, FL Construction Site Burglary Analysis


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Time Span

*Statistically significant at the .01 level **58% of the CSBTs has a date span of 0 or 1

Port St. Lucie, FL Construction Site Burglary Analysis: N=155-158


10 did it work l.jpg

#10 Did it work?


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Effort to Reduce Traffic Collisions Through Citations

Results:

-Very weak correlation between cites and collisions

-Not statistically significant

Chula Vista Police Department


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Domestic Violence Intervention

Intervention Began


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Domestic Violence Intervention


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Anti-Theft Device: Passive Immobilizers in Honda Accords

Year Immobilizers Introduced Into Accords


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Discussion and Questions

Contact Information:

Deborah Weisel

dlweisel@social.chass.ncsu.edu

Karin Schmerler

kschmerler@chulavistapd.org

Rachel Boba

rboba@fau.edu


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