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Crime Analysis for Problem Solvers Problem Oriented Policing Conference Charlotte, NC October 2004 #1 How should crime data be used? Crime is relative 2003 Data Target 4 Walmart Auto Theft Vehicle Burglary Total Vehicles Stolen: 30 % Recovered: 50% Avg. Time at Lot: 109 min.

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crime analysis for problem solvers

Crime Analysis for Problem Solvers

Problem Oriented Policing Conference

Charlotte, NC

October 2004

slide4

Target 4

Walmart

Auto Theft

Vehicle Burglary

Total Vehicles Stolen: 30

% Recovered: 50%

Avg. Time at Lot: 109 min.

Avg. Vehicle Year: 1988

Top Makes/Models

Toyotas & Nissans

Walmart had 18 incidents predominantly between 12:00 – 20:00. The top makes include Fords and Hondas.

Most Common Lot Addresses within Target Area #4

Walmart – 75 N. Broadway

Best Buy – 59 N. Broadway

Auto Theft Time of Day

Auto Theft Day of Week

top 10 calls for service chula vista 2003
Top 10 Calls for ServiceChula Vista 2003
  • False Burglary Alarm 8,882 12%
  • Disturbance by Person 3,977 5%
  • Domestic Violence 3,692 5%
  • Traffic Collision 3,680 5%
  • Noise Disturbance 2,759 4%
  • 911 Hang Up 2,397 3%
  • Vehicle Theft 2,327 3%
  • Petty Theft 2,091 3%
  • Vandalism 1,983 3%
  • Suspicious Person 1,806 2%

Total 33,594 44%

too little data

Too Little Data

Use at least 15-20 per category.

estimating magnitude of the problem
Estimating Magnitude of the Problem
  • Complaints to police 31
  • Arrests 201
  • Suspects 148
  • Chronic offenders 60
estimating offenses
Estimating Offenses
  • Chronic offenders 60
    • Tricks per day 3 – 5
    • Days per week 5
    • Weeks per year 50
  • Estimated transactions 67,500
  • Clearance rate 3/10 %
utilize narratives
Utilize Narratives
  • To determine usefulness of data
  • To understand context of a problem
  • Content analysis and coding for additional statistical analysis
difficulty index initial analysis
Difficulty Index: Initial Analysis

72%

Port St. Lucie, FL Construction Site Burglary Analysis: N=155

difficulty index preliminary analysis
Difficulty Index: Preliminary Analysis

Port St. Lucie, FL Construction Site Burglary Analysis: N=155-158

slide30

Access Control: A Critical Parking Lot Feature

Number of Auto Thefts

  • Las Americas Safer than CV Mall in Other Ways:
  • -69% burglary
  • -60% fights/disturb.
  • -38% grand theft
  • -84% petty theft
  • zero robberies (16 at Chula Vista Mall)
slide31

Traffic Congestion Problem: Who Drives to School and Why?

AM Drivers and Walkers

Paseo

Bus Stops

= All grades

= K/1st

Park

slide32

Observations of Drop-Off/Pick-up Times Explain Afternoon Crunch

School end time:

3:00

School start time:

8:30

mapping
Mapping
  • Use mapping sparingly
  • Should not be the central method used to direct police efforts
  • Mapping most useful for bringing data together, scanning, and presenting analysis results.
slide41

Example: Presentation of Results

San Diego County Recovery Rates

2001 Recovery Rates - Cars

2001 Recovery Rates - Trucks

slide42

Example: Presentation of Results

HIGHWAY

closed section

CAB STAND

P

P

NEW CAB STAND

Tønsberg downtown area

P

P

Moved barristers

P

P

MOVED BUS STAND

TØNSBERG BRIDGE

P=parking lot

=no admission

From: Gypsy Cabs in Tønsberg – a Case for Problem-Oriented Policing

Johannes Knutsson, National Police Academy and Knut-Erik Søvik, Vestfold Police District

test relationships
Test Relationships
  • Ad hoc reasoning
  • Use of statistics
  • Statistical vs. practical significance
slide45

Date Span

Port St. Lucie, FL Construction Site Burglary Analysis

slide46

Time Span

*Statistically significant at the .01 level **58% of the CSBTs has a date span of 0 or 1

Port St. Lucie, FL Construction Site Burglary Analysis: N=155-158

effort to reduce traffic collisions through citations
Effort to Reduce Traffic Collisions Through Citations

Results:

-Very weak correlation between cites and collisions

-Not statistically significant

Chula Vista Police Department

anti theft device passive immobilizers in honda accords
Anti-Theft Device: Passive Immobilizers in Honda Accords

Year Immobilizers Introduced Into Accords

discussion and questions

Discussion and Questions

Contact Information:

Deborah Weisel

[email protected]

Karin Schmerler

[email protected]

Rachel Boba

[email protected]

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