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Project Management. Samuel BASSETTO, W37-07 [email protected] Thanks to Khaled HADJI HAMOU. BIG projects , small projects. Examples? Facility planning Personnal insurance management method implementation Change of work Redesign a building New product development

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project management

Project Management

Samuel BASSETTO, W37-07

[email protected]

Thanks to Khaled HADJI HAMOU

big projects small projects
BIGprojects, smallprojects
  • Examples?
    • Facility planning
    • Personnal insurance management method implementation
    • Change of work
    • Redesign a building
    • New product development
    • Commercial introduction of a new product
    • Research partnership development for an European Project
outline
Outline
  • Introduction & concepts
  • Concurrent to your project:
    • General project structure
    • Detailed project structure
    • Focus on Project’s planning
    • Focus on Project’s Quality
    • Risks management during the project
    • Cost analysis
    • The project follow-up
  • Bonus Slides
historic milestones
Historic Milestones
  • Pyramids…
  • Vauban (measure of construction times)

  • 1900 : Taylor/Fayol/Ford
  • 1915 : Gantt
  • 1950 : PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technic)
  • 1989 : Project management methods
normative corporations
Normative corporations
  • AFITEP
    • Association Francophone de Management de Projet.
  • IPMA
    • International Project Management Association
  • PMI
    • Project Management Institute
      • Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)
nowadays context
Nowadays context
  • Why a management based on projects ?
    • End date
    • Easy overview
    • Due date & delivrables => goal achievement (not insured but facilitated)
project a definition
Project : a definition
  • 1st definition
    • The project is a response at challenging constraints (innovation, deadlines, cost…) that enterprises are facing in their global competition
    • The project structures a precise idea, and require human skills and means for its unique concretization, limited in the time

[Berry 96]

project some definitions
Project : some definitions
  • PMBOK Definition
    • Efforts employed on a defined period for a service or product creation
  • AFITEP Definition
    • Important realization, with an end, time limited, with a precise goal, requiring various ressources
project some definitions9
Project some definitions
  • Notions extracted from these definitions
    • The notion of goal
    • The notion of time
    • The notion of organization
    • The notion of ressources
    • The notion of structure (?)
project the asqimc definition
Project : the ASQIMC definition
  • Finally :
    • A way of workingwhich
    • Structures progressively an object driven by
    • Quantitatives goals it
    • Identified clearly requirements and involves
    • Multiples skills which are under
    • Constraints
typologies of projects
Typologies of projects

(A)

(B)

Characteristics ? Examples ?

(C)

(D)

Entrerprise

Project

the project management
The project management
  • AFITEP Definition
    • The project management includes the Plannification, Organization, Progression Follow up and the master of all aspects of project in a continuous process for goals achievement.
  • PMI definition
    • Knowledge application, skills, tools and methods employed by activities for achieving successfully goals of each projects.
management
Management
  • Project  « dash board »
    • Global overview
    • Project organization
    • Project status
    • Finance indicators
    • Main milestones
    • Delivrables
    • Risks
the project managment roots
The project managment roots
  • W : Who ?
  • W : What
  • W : Where ?
  • W : When ?
  • H : How ?
  • H : How many ?
  • W : WHY ?

W5H2

project management15
Project management
  • Answer questions:
    • Origins of the project :

 WHY ?

        • MANDATORY for troops motivation
    • Factor of success :

WHAT ?

        • Identify what is inside the project

 WHO?

        • Who leads the project

 WHAT, WHO, WHEN, HOW ?

        • Structure and plannify and guide the project
project management16
Project Management
  • Functional management
  • Institution management

Tools and technics

Human Factors

managing the project
Managing the project…

Dreamed state

Final State

Ideal Path

Followed path

Initial State

in order to avoid
In order to avoid

Dreamed stated

Designed path

Followed path

Initial state

Final state

project structure follow up
Project structure… & follow up

Failing to plan is planning to fail

outline20
Outline
  • Introduction & concepts
  • Concurrent to your project:
    • General project structure
    • Detailed project structure
    • Focus on project’s planning
    • Focus on project’s quality
    • Risks management during the project
    • Cost analysis
    • The project follow-up
  • Bonus Slides
project steering comity final eval
Steering comity – 5’ review per project & session

One review per project

Strenghts and weakness, blocking point

Final eval

Presentation 20’ + 10’ questions & product presentation

Prof ranking

Peer ranking

Project steering comity / final eval
outline22
Outline
  • Introduction & concepts
  • Concurrent to your project:
    • General project structure
    • Detailed project structure
    • Focus on project’s planning
    • Focus on project’s quality
    • Risks management during the project
    • Cost analysis
    • The project follow-up
  • Bonus Slides
project structure
Several structures:

Temporal structure : phases

Industrial projects

Information system projects

Operational structure : activities

Businesses involved

Suppliers

Organisational structure

Project leader (project manager ?), project director, sponsor(s), project team

Project structure
why a temporal structure
Why a temporal structure
  • Underline critical activities
  • Better focus on qualifications during each phase
  • Measure and insure quality of each phase
  • Better project overview
  • Step by step plannification & follow up
each phase has to
Each phase has to …
  • Have precise inputs
  • Have a final end
  • Have explicit and acceptable goals
  • Identify available ressources
  • Must be plannified separately
example of a project phase
Example of a project phase
  • 1- Enterprise discussion about research opportunities (R&D Project)
  • 2- Draft contract
  • 3- R phase (more exploratory)
  • 4- D Phase (more centered on indutrial development)
  • 5- Thesis write & presentation
product project decomposition
« Product Project »decomposition

Gestion de projet, Ed WEKA

project phase and uncertainty
Project phase and uncertainty

Thesis ≠ Building a wall !

In one side: well defined activities and phases

In the other side: not structured activities, prospective project.

project phasing
Project phasing
  • Several approaches
    • Cascading management
    • In V
    • In spiral
slide30

Cascade cycle

Requirement book

Requirement engineering

System design

Building blocs

Modules integration

System validation

Payment

slide31

V Cycle

Requirement book

Payment

System requirement engineering

System validation

System design

Module intergration

Building blocs

slide32

Initial risk analysis

Initial requirements

Requirements revision

Risk analysis revision

Initial prototype

prototype

Requirment book

Tests

Final system

Customer satisfaction

Spiral Cycle

Requirement and plannnification

Risk analyhsis

Customer evaluation

Development

project organization
Project organization ?

Contracting Owner

Maîtrise d’ouvrage (fr)

Project

Management

Maîtrise d’œuvre (fr)

partenaire

Supplier 1

Supplier2

Sub Contractor 0

Supplier 2-1

Supplier 0-2

Supplier 0-1

fournisseur

contracting owner
Contracting Owner
  • High level requirements & needs definitions
  • Finance
  • Choose the project manager
  • Agreement on strategic choices and milestone validation
  • Strategic choices
project management35
Project Management
  • Requirement Engineering & General design
  • Action plan Management
  • Work management & coordination
  • Cost control & evolutions
  • Review with Contracting owner
several actors repetition s3
Several actors (repetition S3)
  • Contracting ower
    • Customer
  • Project Manager
    • Project direction
    • Project Manager / leader
    • Project Team
  • Suppliers
  • Project Board
    • Board Contracting Owner & PM
    • Project Leader
outline37
Outline
  • Introduction & concepts
  • Concurrent to your project:
    • General project structure
    • Detailed project structure
    • Focus on project’s planning
    • Focus on project’s quality
    • Risks management during the project
    • Cost analysis
    • The project follow-up
  • Bonus Slides
project and organizations
Project and organizations
  • Functional organization
  • Orgnization by Processus (ISO/ QS…)
  • Matricial organization
    • Functions X processus
    • Function X Project
    • Processus X Project
  • Project Based organization

The project is a tool for change management: a « cubic » organization:

Function x Processus x Project

project structure39
Project structure
  • Why is it necessary to structure ?
  • Problems of complex project
    • During the project design
      • Identify the purpose of the project
      • Identify its development
      • Prepare an adapted organization
    • During the project operations
      • Establish and follow the project plan (cost –quality- deadlines)
goals
Goals
  • Project structure :
    • Is a shared referential
    • Allows an analytical analysis of the project (prevision & realization)
    • Introduces a shared integrated codification @ the enterprise ERP
structure project answers the breakdown structures
Structure project answers…the breakdown structures
  • What ?  product: PBS
  • What to do ?  action: WBS
  • Who is responsible of what ?  responsability: OBS
  • Who do ? With What  ressource: RBS
  • What is the cost ?  cost: CBS
slide42

OBS

Project organization

several actors
Several actors
  • Contracting ower
    • Customer
  • Project Manager
    • Project direction
    • Project Manager / leader
    • Project Team
  • Suppliers
  • Project Board
    • Board Contracting Owner & PM
    • Project Leader
organization
Organization

Direction Steering Comity

100u

Month/BiMonth.

Project Steering Comity

10u

Week/Month

Project Management

u

Day/Week

Continuous/

Day

Technical Team

Cont.

Project Team

a member is
A member is
  • A key person !
  • Role
  • Skills and abilities
the project member an key operating link
The project member: an key operating link

Project Manager

To adapt to project methods

Interface with others group members

Project Member

Cost Constraints

Delay constraints

Quality constraints

role of project member
Role of project member

Participate at project meeting

Animate project methods by using them

Share information with other project members & collaborate

Project member

Achieve its budget objective

Follows his/her planning

Be focused on quality concerns

abilities of project member hr profile
Abilities of project member:HR profile
  • To know how to effect a constraint task (cost, quality, delay) => need to cope with pression and stress
  • Able to evolve in a coordinated environment
  • Keen to Team Working
project manager
Project Manager
  • An interface actor
  • Role
  • Ability and skills
  • Constraints
the project manager is a interface actor
The project manager is a interface actor

Project Team

Customer

Quality Structure

Project

Manager

Functional Board

Board of direction

Chief executive staff

Other Teams

Services

role of the project manager
Role of the Project Manager

Study and understand requirements and satistfy the customer

Find sponsors in the organization

Project Manager

Drive and control the progression

Plan and express achievable goals

LET DO by the team, Improve ressource employment

To be efficient

role of project manager
Role of project manager
  • Be creative and Charismatic during the 1st phase
  • Be respectfull of the plan
  • Honnest & review rapidly at the end

[Midler]

skills and abilities of a project manager
Skills and abilities of a project manager
  • Master methodologies
  • Knowledge of technics involved during the project
  • Understanding and create an adhesion atmosphere in the team

the PM is a Mother, a Father,

a charismatic leader,

an impartial judge and the best sponsor of

the team

project manager constraints
Project Manager constraints

Environment

Technologies

Economic aspect

Project Manager

Standards

Limited ressources

Political

the project director if necessary
The project Director (if necessary)

Hire the project manager / leader. Gives his authority

Agree project strategic directions

Project Director

Help for financial aspects

Find internal sponsor

Follow several projects and advice each of them

Is involved during crisis situation

the project board
The project board

Involved in strategic decisions and operation reviews

Valide strategic orientations

Valid milestones

Project Board

Finance

Strategic view of projects

Release blocked situations

pbs product breakdown structure58
PBS- Product BreakDown Structure
  • A descriptive arborescence of the product
    • level 1 : system
    • level 2 : subsystem
    • level 3 : Submodule
    • level 4 : components
  • The PBS is a configuration and documentation management support
exemple

Système Rafale

Rafale air craft

System

Logistique

Logistic

Avion

Plane

Armement

Arming

Carlingue

Cockpit

Wings

Ailes

Motorisation

Motoring

Navigation

Navigation

Steering

Pilotage

Trains

Gear

Exemple
definition
Definition
  • WBS : The project skeleton
    • Project structure
    • Operational activities definition
    • Cost follow up
    • Deadlines Definitions & Reviews
    • Risk Management
    • Operation management
the wbs allows to
The WBS allows to
  • Define precisely each delivrables
  • Precise definition of each action
  • Deep understanding of each member intervention
  • Agreement and recognition of every involved (and / or) impacted services
wbs concepts
WBS concepts
  • A structured decomposition of the project
  • Create every task and subtask necessary for goals achievement
  • Each phase is fully decomposed without temporal relations (for the moment)
  • The work requires to be
    • Complete
    • Exhaustive
    • Coherent
how structuring the work
How structuring the work
  • Identify phases and major actions
  • For each work lot, describe in a file each work unit
  • Don’t forget non technical activities
a task file
A task file

PROJECT :..................................................... N° W.O. :..................... EDITION FROM : ..............................

RESPONSIBLE :.................................... LABEL : ..............................................................................

DESCRIPTION :...........................................................................................................................................

MAIN ACTIVITIES : .................................................................................................................

........................................................................................................................................................

INPUT (material, doc,...) :.......................................................................................................

OUTPUT (fournitures, doc,...) :....................................................................................................

EXCLUDED TASK :..................................................................................................................................

BEGINING DATE:................... FINAL DATE :.................... DURATION :......................

MILESTONES :...........................................................................................................

WORK ALLOCATION: :............................................... BUDGET :....................................................

V

I Project Manager :..................Local Manager:........................ Task Resp. :........................

S

A Date :....................................... Date :....................................... Date :.....................................

S

component of a wbs
Component of a WBS
  • Project
  • Sub-project
  • Phase
  • Work Batch
  • Task
  • Milestone
  • Delivrable
a task
A task
  • Has a beginning and an end
  • Consume ressources, which cost and are in limited quantity
  • Is linked at other tasks by an anteriority (or precedence) relation (choose one)
milestone
Milestone
  • Review or decision task
    • Is modelled by :
      • Has no duration (even if in reality has one)
      • Do not consume ressources (facing the project ressource consumption)
      • Is typed :
        • A contractual milestone = Payment
        • Technical Milestone = intermediate event
        • Interface Milestone = intermediate event when all project’s actors meet
finally the wbs is
Finally the WBS is
  • A Top down and Bottom up tool
  • Must not be frozen => need revision during the project.
unit building principles
Unit « building » principles
  • Aggregation criterias
    • Same project phase
    • Same Speciality
    • Same responsability
    • Same Market
  • Decomposition Criterias
    • Functional
    • Product
    • Activity typology
    • Business type
    • Geography
work description
Work description
  • Each work lot have to be separated from others
  • Interfaced with others
  • Compatible with enterprise organization
  • Describe completely
    • Input
    • ouput
  • With an unique responsible
  • With limited size, cost, duration and work load.
decomposition main issue
Decomposition main issue

Find the balance between

  • A too wide mesh
  • A too small mesh
pbs and wbs linkage
PBS and WBS linkage

Project

Subproject

PBS

System

subsystem

Phase

WBS

COHERENCY:

→Tasks must realize subsystem

←Subsystem must be built by tasks

Work Batch

Task

slide76

PBS-WBS / OBS

Flux

Involved agency

Need

Steering comity

System

Office

Sub System

Team

Product

People

Task

slide77

PBS-WBS / OBS – a « big » project

Flux

Need

System

Sub System

Product

Task

slide78

PBS-WBS / OBS – a « small » project

Flux

Involved agency

Steering comity

Office

Team

People

outline79
Outline
  • Introduction & concepts
  • Concurrent to your project:
    • General project structure
    • Detailed project structure
    • Focus on project’s planning
    • Focus on project’s quality
    • Risks management during the project
    • Cost analysis
    • The project follow-up
  • Bonus Slides
planning
Planning
  • A project is constraint by:
    • A beginning date
    • An End Date (Due Date)
    • Deadlines & delivrables
  • The planning is the art of prevision and follw-up of project’s operational goals: time, cost, quality…
project planning
Project Planning
  • A 10 Steps planning method
    • Analyse the project
    • Identify tasks
    • Identify tasks linkage
    • Plot the task network
    • Evaluate each task duration
    • Calculate dates
    • Calculate Margins – PERT
    • Adjust time constraints
    • Draw GANTT
    • Allocate ressources
main issue
Main issue

Planning

(Idea of the reality)

Real realization

  • The art of project manager is
    • Measure, Decide and Act so as reaching goals despite of contingency
    • New planning – planning update
level of planning
Level of planning

Steering comity road map (Milestones)

Due dates

Macro planning – Batch of Work

Work BreakDown Structure

Task & Activites

Time planning

Chaining

constraints

Task & Operations

Workload planning

1 analyze the project
1- Analyze the project

Project

Studies

Furniture

Facility layout

Tooling

Acceptance

Layout Studies

Machining Supplies

Machining substructure

Machining installation

Acceptance tests

Assembly installation

Assembly Supplies

Assembly substructure

Ganty crane installation

1 analyze the project85
1- Analyze the project

Project

Studies

Furniture

Facility layout

Tooling

Acceptance

C

Layout Studies

A

Machining Supplies

D

Machining substructure

E

Machining installation

I

Acceptance tests

G

Assembly installation

B

Assembly Supplies

F

Assembly substructure

H

Ganty crane installation

identify tasks
Identify tasks

N° Label

Deb Start

A Purchase & receipt of machining tools

B Purchase & receipt of assembly tool

C Study the facility layout

D Execute the facility layout for machining

E Install machining tools

F Execute the facility layout for assembly

G install assembly tools

H Install the gantry crane

I Perform acceptance tests

Fin End

identify tasks87
Identify tasks

N° Label Anterior

tasks

Deb Start NIL

A Purchase & receipt of machining tools Deb

B Purchase & receipt of assembly tool Deb

C Study the facility layout Deb

D Execute the facility layout for machining C

E Install machining tools A,D

F Execute the facility layout for assembly C

G install assembly tools B,F

H Install the gantry crane C

I Perform acceptance tests E,G,H

Fin End I

4 drawn the network
4- Drawn the network

A

E

D

C

H

I

0

F

Start

End

B

G

rank calculus
Rank calculus
  • Problème : which order to choose ?

task3

task1

Task 5

Start

En d

task2

Task 4

rank calculus90
Rank calculus

Preceding tasks

Number of cross = Nomber of preceding tasks

Task

draw the network
Draw the network
  • Then (follow eg §91)

B

A

D

C

F

G

H

E

I

L

K

J

5 estimate duration
5-Estimate duration

N° Label Anterior Duration

tasks

Deb Start / 0

A Purchase & receipt of machining tools Deb 7

B Purchase & receipt of assembly tool Deb 3

C Study the facility layout Deb 5

D Execute the facility layout for machining C 5

E Install machining tools A,D 5

F Execute the facility layout for assembly C 3

G Install assembly tools B,F 3

H Install the gantry crane C 7

I Perform acceptance tests E,G,H 1

Fin End I 0

to estimate duration
To estimate duration
  • Personal experience
  • Ask experts

(Employ a significative & homogen time unit)

6 calculate dates
6- Calculate dates

A

7

E

5

D

5

C

5

H

7

I

1

0

F

3

Start

End

Duration

B

3

G

3

LED

Latest End Date

ESD

Earliest Start Date

LSD 

Latest Start Date

EED

Earliest End Date

7 margin calculus
7- Margin calculus
  • Free margin
    • Duration From which a task can be delayed or relaxed without affecting another task of the project
  • Total margin
    • Duration from which a task can be relaxed or delayed without affecting the end of the entire project.
critical path tasks
Critical path & tasks
  • Critical path
    • Every path which goes from the begining to the end of the project with the longuest duration.
    • Its lenght will define the duration minimum of the project
  • Critical path
    • A task with margin = 0
calculate margins
Calculate margins

A

7

E

5

0

7

3

10

10

15

10

15

D

5

0

3

5

10

5

10

C

5

H

7

I

1

0

0

0

16

16

0

5

0

5

5

12

8

15

15

16

15

16

F

3

3

0

0

5

8

9

12

B

3

G

3

4

0

3

9

12

8

11

12

15

9

4

8 adjust durations constraints
8- Adjust durations & constraints
  • Analyse constraints
  • Review (negociate) goals
  • Analyse taks (redefine)
  • Review the technical solution ?
  • Externalize ?
  • Increase the ressources number?
9 draw gantt diagram

Week 1

Week 2

M

T

T

W

F

M

T

T

W

F

Task 1

Task 2

Task 3

9- Draw Gantt diagram
arrowed gantt
Arrowed Gantt
  • Graphical & temporal acitivity sucession

Time (in days)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

T A

T B

T C

tasks chaining logics

Precedent

precedent

Precedent

Next

Next

Next

Tasks chaining logics

End-End Relation (EE)

End – Start Relation (ES)

Start – Start Relation (SS)

tasks chaining logics103

+d

Precedent

precedent

precendent

Next

Next

Next

+d

+d

Tasks chaining logics

End-End Relation (EE)

End – Start Relation (ES)

Start – Start Relation (SS)

un exemple ml mt
Un exemple ML-MT

Task 1

17 w

7 w

Task 2

5 w

2 w

5 w

Task 3

5 w

Task 4

5 w

7 w

Task 5 (end milestone)

Total margin

Free Margin

10 ressources allocations
10- Ressources allocations
  • Definition
    • Human, material, energetic, informational, geographic or temporal means allocation for a task operation
ressources allocation
Ressources allocation
  • Elaborate an allocation table
  • Estimate ressources required
  • Allocate ressources
ressources allocation107
Ressources allocation
  • THe charge planning is establish considering ressources availbility
  • If overload are discovered, the project manager must deploy corrective actions:
    • Grading (Slip the end of the project)
    • Smoothind (reorganize so as the end of date)
    • Restructure the project
loads
Loads

Loads = duration * mobilization rate

load plan
Load plan

Undercapacity

load

Ressources in

‘idle mode’

Ressources available

Max

Ressources raised

t

project planning110
Project planning

Set of tools and methods for creating

  • Indicators
  • Operational Balanced Scorecard

For managing the project

indicators
Indicators
  • Measure a phenomenon
  • They have to be :
    • Easy to understand and appropriated
    • Usefull
  • Two type of indicators
    • Results
    • Process
  • Examples ?
balance score card
Balance score card
  • Management tool
  • Underline the past performance
  • Give information about futur steps
  • Strong and Weak Points
  • Gap analysis toward targets
  • Each gap need an action plan
  • Designed during the project first phase
manage with bsc
Manage with BSC

The quality of a BSC:

  • It is focused = Design for customers
  • It is usefull = Fullfill requirements
  • It is reliable = regulary reviewed
  • It help for the action plan = concrete
  • It is complete = Is operational Q, C, D
  • It is understandable = visual
outline114
Outline
  • Introduction & concepts
  • Concurrent to your project:
    • General project structure
    • Detailed project structure
    • Focus on project’s planning
    • Focus on project’s quality
    • Risks management during the project
    • Cost analysis
    • The project follow-up
  • Bonus Slides
d finitions
Définitions
  • Do we master indicators ?
  • Can we measure ?
  • Do we have control limits
  • How mastering OOC?
  • How is the indicator distribution ? (normal, bi modal…)
  • Which are Cp - Cpk of are key indicators ? (do we master them)
  • Audit: Key parameters to an analyse
    • Indicators vs relevance
    • Deployement of a systematic indicator review and gap analysis
    • Follow-up of indicator in team problem solving
    • How is the management with indicators
outline116
Outline
  • Introduction & concepts
  • Concurrent to your project:
    • General project structure
    • Detailed project structure
    • Focus on project’s planning
    • Focus on project’s quality
    • Risks management during the project
    • Cost analysis
    • The project follow-up
  • Bonus Slides
risks and projects
Risks and projects

Some definitions:

  • Potentiality that a project doesn’t follow its plan.
  • Virutal Gaps, unacceptable regarding goal
  • NO projects without risks
risks and projects118
Risks and projects

Definition in this lesson:

A risk is the triptych:

  • Unwanted event
  • Frequency
  • Gravity
risks and project
Risks and project
  • The fundation of risk analysis: the context of the analysis

Context

  • RISK
  • Fearsome event
  • Frequency
  • Gravity

Fearsome

event

risk and projects
Risk and projects

Risks caracteristics

  • Nature of the risks
    • financial, human, Law, Commercial, technical
  • Risk origin
    • Customer, Supplier, subcontractor, internal
  • Consequences,
  • Detectability
  • Gravity
    • From no consequence to disaster
  • Probabiliy of occurence
    • Quantitative ? Qualitative (rare, improbable, most likely, common)
slide121

Risks and projects

Risks Management

  • Why implement a risk management?
    • Prevent Malfunction
    • Prevent firefighting during the project
  • In other words
    • Contribute to a RELEVANT definition of operational goals (cost, due dates, required perf)
    • Having robust goals regarding disturbing events

Prevent elementary mistakes

slide122

Risks and projects

Risks management

  • Constitute a « crisis » group or Problem Solving Team
  • For the management: employ KNOWLEDGEABLE & reliable people

Prevent elementary mistakes

risks and projects123
Risks and projects

Management of risks during a project / 6 STEPS

  • Risk identification
  • Risk ranking
  • Risks classification
  • Risk « curring » : mitigation
  • Follow-up and control of risks
  • Capitalization and risks update

Risks ANALYSIS process - Dysfunctional analysis

Risk MANAGEMENT Process

risks and projects124
Risks and projects
  • Risk identification
  • Individual or team analysis => listing of every potential impacting element:
    • Have a look at a previous projects’ post mortem analyses, project databases
    • Review a risk checklist
    • Look at a risk database in the organization
    • Ask experts involved in previous projects
risks and projects125
Risks and projects
  • Risk identification
  • Tools for the explicitation:
    • FMEA
    • Failure/Fault Tree Analysis
    • Causes Tree
    • Bow Ties
risks and projects126
Risks and projects

2. Risks ranking

  • Affect, for each risk, a value:
    • Gravity, Occurrence probability, Probability of non detection

FMEA formalism => RPN = Sev * Occ * Det

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Risks and projects

3. Risk classification

  • Each risk, identified and estimated, must be classified and prioritized regarding other risks
  • The project management evaluate each risk, determine if it is acceptable or not depending on PRECISE rules, given by the project steering commity
risks and project128
Risks and project

3. Risk classification

Levels of risk

Probability can bve replace (in often case) by a qualitative estimation

      • very weak 1
      • weak 2
      • median 3
      • high 4
      • very high5
  • The criticality is the product: occurance probability * impact

C = I x P

risks and project129
Risks and project

4. Risk mitigation

PROBABILITy

Area I : Acceptable risks

5

Area II : disturbing risks

IV

III

4

Area III : risks to treat

3

II

III

2

Area IV : una cceptable risks

I

1

1

2

3

4

5

Mitigation path

IMPACT

risks and projects130
Risks and projects

4. Risk mitigation

  • The declination

=>Decline the project

  • The cure

=> Suppress the root cause of the risk

    • Are solution appropriate?
    • Are goals & constraints negociable?
  • The mitigation

=> Diminution of the probability of occurrence &/or impact

risks and projects131
Risks and projects

4. Risks Mitigation

  • The countermeasure
    • Accept the risk and take technical, communicational, organizational, insurances
      • Preventative actions; decrease its occurrence probability
      • Emergency measures: If the event occurs, prevent the propagation of the impact
  • The transfer
    • Which is the best organization for the risk?
      • Internal services
      • Subcontractor?
      • Customer?
risks and projects132
Risks and projects

5. Risks control and follow-up

  • Action plan
    • Evaluation of final impact of actions
    • Tracability of action: ACTION PLAN:
      • Responsible
      • When
      • The forecast risk rank after treatment
risks and projects133
Risks and projects

6. Risks & actions capitalization

  • A documentary system
    • Trace of event & action plan
    • One risk catalog
      • Help the identification of risks for new projects
      • Standardize risk management
    • Constitue risks check-lists
    • Store debriefing analyses
outline134
Outline
  • Introduction & concepts
  • Concurrent to your project:
    • General project structure
    • Detailed project structure
    • Focus on project’s planning
    • Focus on project’s quality
    • Risks management during the project
    • Cost analysis
    • The project follow-up
  • Bonus Slides
the cost control
The Cost control
  • Ressource planning
  • Cost forecast
  • Budgeting
  • Cost control
the cost control136
The cost control
  • To have a target
    • The Budget at date
  • Compare its position
    • The previsional cost
  • Obtain by

Sum of what has been guaranty & done (done or in the pipe)

+

Sum of what is still required (to be payed)

  • GAP analysis
    • Gap, drift, trends
  • Taking in account
    • Project modifications & inflation
technical provisions
Technical provisions
  • Technical provision are used to cover technical risks due to :
    • Lack of knowledge during cost estimation
    • Project plan review
      • skeleton review
      • Planning review
  • Often * 2 !
initial budget
Initial Budget
  • Task organization must be coherent with budget line
  • Each subensembly is decomposed of budget line & technical provision
  • The sum of all budget line (for all submodule)correspond to the technical cost of the project. There is also the gross margin
    • General provision for the project
    • Overhead charges
    • Profit margin
budget initial
Budget Initial

Sub module

Sub module

Sub module

Sub module

Budget line

Budget line

Budget line

  • General provision for the project
  • Overhead charges
  • Profit margin

Gross Margin

Initial BUDGET

bcwp curve
BCWP Curve
  • The BCWP Curve (CBTP in French)
    • Budgeted Cost of Work Planned BCWP
  • Official, reference curve which translate previsional cumulated cost respecting the project planning

Cost

BCWP

Time

the bdwd curve
The BDWD curve
  • The BCWD curve (CBTE in french)
    • Budgeted Cost of the Work Done – Earned Value
  • Translate the evolution of real evolution of budgeted cost for executed works at a particular date

Cost

Planning delay

BCWP

Aquired, planned value

BDWD

Delay

Time

A curve depending of the planning & the work progress.

planning gap
Planning Gap

Relative Planning Gap :

Gap Planning

=

Incur budget

BCWP – BDWD

=

BCWP

the rcwd
The RCWD
  • The RCWD Curve ( CRTE in French)
    • Real cost of Work Done
  • At a particular date, is the cumulated curve of what has been really spend

Cost

RCWD

Real cost

BCWP

Planning delay

Project Control variance

Aquired, planned value

BDWD

Delay

A curve depending of the planning & the work progress.

Time

cost gap
Cost Gap

Performance gap

= BCWP - RCWD

If < 0  More expensive than planned

If > 0  Less expensive than planned

Cost Variation :

Cost Gap BCWP – RCWS

= =

BCWP BCWP

measures analysis date review
Measures analysis (date review)
  • Cost realized < Planned cost

 Not necessarly a good sign

  • Cost realized > Planned cost

 not necessarly a bad sign

  • Need a new measure :
    • Work Done (Physical status)
measure of work
Measure of work
  • Planned workload
  • Used Planned Workload
  • Real Workload employed
management with delivrable
Management with delivrable

Planned dates

(or workload)

Rencontre des prévisions

avec la réalité

Delivrable 2

Delivrable 1

D1 delayed

Real date

Date of CR review

management tool
Management tool

Planned charges

Chronical drift of the project

Earlier pb analysis

Pb discovered late in the planning

Ideal project; date real = date planned

Real dates

status meeting
Status meeting
  • Gap ANALYSIS
    • Difficulties to plan
      • Planning = intellectual effort
      • No standard for duration evaluation
    • Ressources
      • Ressource availability
      • Several qualifications
      • Learning time
      • Ressources are focused on their favorite activities
    • Modifications
      • From the customer
      • Product improvement
    • Failures
outline150
Outline
  • Introduction & concepts
  • Concurrent to your project:
    • General project structure
    • Detailed project structure
    • Focus on project’s planning
    • Focus on project’s quality
    • Risks management during the project
    • Cost analysis
    • The project follow-up
  • Bonus Slides
meeting point
Meeting Point
  • Who
    • The project team
  • Duration
    • 1 Hour
  • When
    • Regularly and repetitive
  • What
    • Based on FACTs
  • Format
    • Status Report
  • Tracking
    • Balance Score Card
follow up goals
Follow-up goals
  • Help the project manager to take the right decision, so that goals could be achieved the closest possible to the planning.
  • Mean: the information system
graphical tools
Graphical tools
  • Milestones planning
    • Status for each milestons

Δt= Realized - planned

Late

2

1

In time

1

2

In avance

Real Time

t0

t1

t2

t3

t4

graphical tools for the follow up
Graphical tools for the follow-up
  • Milestone follow-up
    • Extension for all milestones

t + (Δt= time realized – planned time)

late

t3

M 2

advance

t2

Passed milestone

M 1

t1

t0

Real time

t0

t1

t2

t3

t4

status
Status
  • Time Status
  • Workload Status
  • Physical Status
status follow up

Case 1

5

4

Case 2

5

9

Status Follow-up

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

6

6

7

7

8

8

9

9

10

10

11

11

12

12

13

13

14

14

t

+ 5

t

0

0

Case 3

6

Case 4

8

Total Lenght = Real lenght + rest lenght

Time status (%) = Real lenght / Overall lenght

suivis example
Suivis : example
  • Insert 1000 post along a road
    • Forcasting lenght : 100 days
    • Mean : 10 men
  • Follow-up:
    • Meeting 1 : t0+10d
      • 100 post inserted, Ressource employed : 100 days
    • Meeting 2 : t0+20d
      • 50 post removed & reinsert
      • 50 insert
      • 10 people more have been affected
status measures
Status measures

1- Declared status

60 %

2- Calculated statuds

60 %

Cost forecast

100

60

50 %

100

Cost forecast

Stay to be spend

60

60

3- Recognized status

40 %

Done

20 objetcs

Still to do

30 objects

4- Milestones status

40 %

60%

100%

10%

40%

5- Percentage statuts

100 %

0 %

0 %

follow the status

Send consultation

Supplier choice

Order slip

Expediting at reception

Final customer expedition

Billing

Follow the status

Example of an order

Physical status

0

Tentative

requirements book

Milestones

10

Benchmark

30

Final requirement

book

50

Delivery slip

80

95

Receipt

100

status follow up160

0

-

0%

0

-

200

200

1

Envoi des consultations

10%

25

250

200

175

2

Choix du fournisseur

30%

72

240

200

128

3

Emission de la commande

50%

122

244

240

118

Status follow-up

Order example

Physical follow-up - Month 0 to 3

Month event Physical Hours H. dep. / H Tot R.A.F. status Spend Phy. advan planned

operational procedures
Operational procedures
  • Regular review (weekly, monthly, quaterly…)
  • Data loading
    • By activity
    • By ressources
data collection
Data collection
  • Informal manner
    • Status meeting
    • Interviews
  • Structured manner
    • Elapsed time spread sheet – systematically filled
    • Directly in a tool
merci pour votre attention
Merci pour votre attention

Thank you for your audience

summary project management
Summary – Project Management
  • Several project type
  • A management idea: W5H2
  • « Dicton » (Failing to, plan is planning to fail)
    • PWS / WBS / OBS / CBS / RBS
  • Uncertainty management => Risks analysis
  • Project management: temporal review of a project, gap analysis, a REGULAR REVISION
subject n 1 gazpram exxoun
Subject N°1: GAZPRAM & EXXOUN
  • In a global shrinking market place of fossil energy, GAZPRAM & EXXOUN joined their efforts for new prospection and development actions. This new alliance, named G&E produced a first collaboration project:the implemantation of the SIN pipline : from Singapore to Nepal through the state of Myanmar.
  • Following with interest your abilities about project management, the Human Ressources Direction of G&E has decided to promote you as Project Manager of this ambitious project.
  • You have to do the feseability study of this project in putting a strong emphasis on a meticulus risks analysis.
  • Your goal is to present to the sterring comity of G&E the validity of this project. From your results, the alliance can be renegociated.
subject n 2 hiltstars resorts travel agencies
Subject N°2: HILTSTARS Resorts & Travel Agencies
  • Following its development strategy, in accordance with Dalaï Lama, Chinese government plan to develop touristic aspects of LHASA. «LHASA will become the kingdom of meditation and skying». The high altitude will insure a confortable level of snow and secure this lucrative activity. In order to supply the lack of hostels infrastructure at an international level, Chineese government had launched a worldwide contract offer of 1B$ for the construction of a 6 buildings, 1500 beds each from 4 to 6 stars quality. The HILTSARS Compangy has won the competition. « HILTSTARS resorts & Spa» are a well reknowned brand of luxe and quality. It have been choosen for their knowledge about holidays an luxe facilities.
  • Following your remarked ability in team and project management, the HR direction of HILSTARS will entrust you to this ambitious project.
  • Your participation will start by the preliminary study of this project. You will be responsible of the general planning for the entire facility layout.
  • Your goal is to present to HILSTARS steering comity your forcast planning & the smoothing associated.
subject 3 national lotery the kitchen
Subject 3: National lotery & the kitchen
  • You are a lucky guy/women! You won to the national lotery ! It is not the first price, however, you have enough money to buy you a flat in South of France. You can realize finally your dream. Your own loft is a 820ft^2 to renovate entirely.
  • Hopefully, you are a « do-it yourself » person and you plan to start with the kitchen. Several layout works need to be planned : gaz, painting, walls…
  • Aware of the good job, you want to do a good job and preserve your nest egg. You decide to plan, buy and install a kitchen from IKEO. They did a super software of cost estimation and kitchen planning.
  • Now it’s your turn to play
subject 3 practice lesson lean manufacturing with lego
Subject 3: Practice Lesson – Lean manufacturing with LEGO
  • You have to imagine a pratical lesson of lean manufacturing.
    • 8 pers. 1 project leader
subject 5 building a oenologic program
Subject 5: Building a oenologic program
  • You have to imagine a pratical lesson of oenology.
    • 8 pers. 1 project leader
subject 6 sensibilisation of about risk management
Subject 6: sensibilisation of about risk management
  • You have to imagine a advertising message to sensibilize to middle and small managers to operational risk management
    • 8 pers. 1 project leader
subject 7 world roots travel
Subject 7: World roots travel
  • You have to imagine a travel around India and Nepal.
    • 8 pers. 1 project leader
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