Gambling Expansion in New Hampshire
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Gambling Expansion in New Hampshire David Lumbert Boyd Lever Andrew Newcomb Is it a Gamble ? New Hampshire Gaming Study Commission Cannibalization of Lottery Revenue Gambling and Crime Social Impacts The Fiscal Impacts of Casino Legalization Cannibalization of State Lottery Revenue ?

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Gambling Expansion in New Hampshire

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Gambling Expansion in New Hampshire

David Lumbert

Boyd Lever

Andrew Newcomb

Is it a Gamble?


  • New Hampshire Gaming Study Commission

    • Cannibalization of Lottery Revenue

    • Gambling and Crime

    • Social Impacts


The Fiscal Impacts of Casino Legalization

Cannibalization of State Lottery Revenue?

VS.


The United States: A Nation of Lotteries

- 43 States with Lotteries

- Contributing $70 to $2500 Million to State Budgets


What About Introducing Casinos ?

NEED TO EDIT HERE

In Theory:

- “Significant Cannibalization” of Lottery Revenue

- Fink, Rork… what did he say

- Navin… what did he say

But models are specific; Not universally applicable.

Empirical Evidence from the 10 states with both


States with Casinos and Lotteries

- 10 States with Lotteries & Casinos

- The Research Targets to Determine the Degree of Cannibalization of Lottery Revenues


On Average, No Decrease in Lottery Revenue post-Casino


Casinos and Employment Trends:


  • Findings and Future Directions:

  • Fear of Lethal Cannibalization Not Generally Realistic

    • Tax Rate on Commercial Casino ?

  • - Compare Revenues in 10 States immediately pre- & post- Casino

    • - Tease out the magnitude of cannibalization

  • Quantify Fiscal Impacts of Changes in Casino-related Employment

  • - Money is Not Everything: What are the other Impacts of Gambling Expansion ?


  • Gambling and Crime

    Will expanding gambling in New Hampshire lead to an increase in crime?


    2008 Crime Rates in NH and United States

    D

    B

    E

    NH is safest state in country

    C

    A


    Tourism-Crime Connection

    • As population density increases, crime rate increases

    • Tourists particularly vulnerable

    • Nongambling resort complex constructed in Kohala, Hawaii and saw crime rise 300 percent in five years

    • No specific link between gambling and street crime (Miller and Schwartz, 1998)


    Casino-Crime Connection

    • Casino patrons are different from patrons to other tourist destinations

    • More incentives to commit crimes around casinos

    • Areas that legalize gambling will almost certainly see increases in crime

    Percentage Reporting


    Casinos Cause Crime

    • 8% of crime in casino counties would not be there if the casinos were not there

    • Crime in casinos remains stable for three years following establishment, but increases after three years

    • First ten years of casinos operating in Atlantic City crime rose 258%

    • Casinos are associated with an increase of crime in Wisconsin, 6.7% of major crimes caused by casinos


    Casinos Don’t Cause Crime

    • Some riverboat casinos in Indiana did not see crime raise

    • Crime in the community does not increase, only crime in the hotels and casinos increases(Curran and Scarpitti,1991)

    • Casino patrons carry large amounts of cash and drink free alcohol, but actual casinos do not cause crime (Walker, 2008)

    • 2003 Study: Half of cities with casinos saw crime increase, half saw crime decrease


    Findings on Crime

    • No clear consensus exists on whether or not casinos actually cause crime, but very likely that property crimes in and around the casino will increase

    • If tourism increases, New Hampshire must be prepared to allocate adequate resources to fighting the crime associated with gambling

    • Avoid “boomtown” phenomenon (Peak, 1993) where bringing a casino to a rural area causes shock to law enforcement

    • Further research is needed in determining actual costs of crime, effect gambling has on tourism, and evaluating current crime rates


    What are the other social impacts of gambling?


    Who are

    Problem and Pathological Gamblers?

    • Comprise 2-5% of total adult population

    • Contribute 25-50% of all casino revenues

    • Cost $10,000 per pathological gambler in costs annually


    Annual Social Cost per Pathological Gambler


    Links to Problem Gambling?

    • Age

    • Proximity

    • Type of Gambling


    Gambling and Loss of Social Capital?

    Social Capital is Already Declining…

    So?

    Casino Gambling Expedites the Loss


    Economic Transformation


    Findings and Future Directions


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