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Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee. September 1, 2010 DAS Exec. Building 155 Cottage, BAM Conference. Torri Lynn (Chair) Linn County Juvenile Department Mark Eddy, Ph.D. Oregon Social Learning Center Donna Keddy Oregon Department of Human Services

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Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

September 1, 2010

DAS Exec. Building 155 Cottage, BAM Conference

Torri Lynn (Chair) Linn County Juvenile Department

Mark Eddy, Ph.D. Oregon Social Learning Center

Donna Keddy Oregon Department of Human Services

David Koch Multnomah County Juvenile Department

Jeffrey Lichtenberg Jefferson County Juvenile Department

Colette Peters Oregon Youth Authority

<Vacant>


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  • Welcome, Introductions (Torri, Damon) Committee

  • Review July 29 small group meeting (Torri)

  • Progress on demand using community youth (Damon)

  • Population trends, Forecast tracking (Damon)

  • Roundtable – Juvenile Justice Issues

  • Next Steps: October forecast, model work

  • Next meeting:

    Wednesday, September 22, 2010, 1:30 – 3:30 p.m. (same place)


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Small Group Meeting Review Committee

  • Met July 29, 2010

  • Review of OYA data for 2005 – 2010 Parole and Probation Youth (felony adjudications)

  • Mirror population of high risk youth in communities closely resembling the risk population in YCF.

  • Group consensus that youth being supervised in the community by counties and OYA is a primary feeder into the YCF and should be part of the formula.

  • Goal for the full committee meeting was to run the previously unrepresented probation populations of youth supervised by both counties and OYA as part of the formula to determine the juvenile closed custody forecast.


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Small Group Meeting Review Committee

  • Follow-up Work, Progress:

  • New data needed/wanted:

    • Need county supervision – who, where, when, why.

    • Want new predictors: detention, probation violations

    • Want risk assessments: Damon is confused – JCP, RNA, etc.

  • Data received from OYA. (No good PV data.)

  • In progress: Development of model based on the community placements.

  • Most data work completed, but preliminary model not yet functional.


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Concepts: Demand Using Community Youth Committee

  • Current referral-based approach:

    • Drop in demand more than practitioners’ observations

    • Assessment of all criminal referrals

  • How can the model ‘see’ the practitioner viewpoint?

    • Kids on probation or parole - “community youth”

    • County or OYA supervision

    • … versus “anyone who’s ever been referred”

  • Risk pool

    • Cleaner: better defined, more consistent

    • More closely tied to actual behavior since reviewed

    • Keep until adult?

    • Handles repeat entries (half or more)


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Concepts: Demand Using Community Youth Committee

  • Potential Factors to Include

    • Referral information (same info as current)

      • Most recent referral

      • History of referrals for youth

    • Probation violations – no data

    • Detention episodes

    • Current supervision (esp. Parole)


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

  • Close Custody Populations

  • PSR steadily reducing

  • DOC 2007 2008 increasing, 2009 2010 flat or slightly down

  • DOC and PSR Trends

    • DOC and PSR – actual beds vs. forecast

    • DCC population – demand index vs. forecast

  • Referrals


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

Close Custody Populations – past decade


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

Close Custody Populations – past decade


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

  • Forecasts---

  • DOC and PSR populations, forecast:

    • Following expected trends

    • Forecast: No significant change expected

  • Demand forecast

    • Based on demand index


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

DOC and PSR Populations – Long Term


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

DOC and PSR Populations – Actual, Forecast

Error: +1.6% (Forecast is high by 6 beds)

Error: +5% (Forecast is high by 4 beds)


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

  • DCC: Discretionary bed demand forecast

    • Based on demand index (no actuals to compare)

    • Compare to changes in demand index

  • Demand from

    past forecasts

  • Demand index is down 15% since Jan. 2010

  • Graphs: Demand index and other referral trends


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

DCC Demand (Discretionary Bed Demand)


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

DCC Demand and Number Referrals Monthly


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

DCC Demand and Felony Referrals


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

DCC Demand and Youths’ Past Felony Referrals


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

DCC Demand and Referral Trends


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Roundtable Committee

  • Juvenile Justice Issues

  • Observed Trends


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Next Steps Committee

  • Committee Decisions

  • October forecast

    • Determination of demand for discretionary

  • Continue work on community model?


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Adjourn Meeting Committee

  • Thank you

  • Please call or email with any other comments, ideas, issues, etc.

  • Torri Lynn 541-967-3853

  • Damon Bell 503-378-5732

  • Next Meeting:

    Wednesday, September 22 at 1:30 pm

    (same place)


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EXTRA GRAPHS Committee


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

Length of Stay for Releases

N=53

N=23


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Population Trends and Tracking Committee

Average Age in Population







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Statistical Summaries COMMITTEE MEETINGDecade 2000


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Statistical Summaries COMMITTEE MEETINGDecade 2000


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Statistical Summaries COMMITTEE MEETINGDecade 2000

  • Referrals (felony, misdemeanor, violation, other)

  • Population adjusted rate shows a stronger decline


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Statistical Summaries COMMITTEE MEETINGDecade 2000

Felony Referrals


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Statistical Summaries COMMITTEE MEETINGDecade 2000

Felony Referrals by Year and Class


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Statistical Summaries COMMITTEE MEETINGDecade 2000

  • Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other


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Statistical Summaries COMMITTEE MEETINGDecade 2000

Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other

Person Related:

Sex Offense

Assault

Homicide Related

Weapons

Robbery

Person Other

Other:

Arson

Burglary

Theft

Criminal Mischief

Substance/Alcohol

Other

53% Drop

30% Drop


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Statistical Summaries COMMITTEE MEETINGDecade 2000

Felony Referrals -- Race and Type

2000

2009

Other

Person Related


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Statistical Summaries COMMITTEE MEETINGDecade 2000

Misdemeanor Referrals

  • Violations/other are similar to misdemeanors referrals in overall number and in change from 2000 to 2009


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Statistical Summaries COMMITTEE MEETINGDecade 2000

Misdemeanor Referrals by Year and Class


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Juvenile Incarceration Rate COMMITTEE MEETINGState Comparisons

  • Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement

    • http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/asp/State_Facility_Operation.asp

  • Number of committed juveniles – total

    • Includes state, local, public, private

  • Calculated Rate: number per 100,000

    • Using ages 9-17 for denominator

    • http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/ezapop/asp/comparison_selection.asp

  • Rates and change in rates: 1999 and 2006

    “Includes juveniles in placement in the facility as part of a court-ordered disposition. Committed juveniles may have been adjudicated and disposed in juvenile court or convicted and sentenced in criminal court.”

    Sickmund, Melissa, Sladky, T.J., and Kang, Wei. (2008) "Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement Databook." Online. Available: http://www.ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/


  • Juvenile incarceration rates state comparisons l.jpg
    Juvenile Incarceration Rates COMMITTEE MEETINGState Comparisons

    • Rate per 100,000 – Year 1999

    311

    213


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    Juvenile Incarceration Rates COMMITTEE MEETINGState Comparisons

    • Rate per 100,000 – Year 2006

    232

    173


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