Town Hall. AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise Board on Enterprise Communication Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF). January 23, 2008 AMS Annual Meeting. Welcome and Introduction George Frederick, CWCE Commissioner.
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January 23, 2008
AMS Annual Meeting
MotivationElliot Abrams (ACUF Co-Chair, AccuWx)
To promote better forecast-based decisions
To reduce losses caused by weather and climate
Current public forecast probabilities: rendering products made from them of dubious, uncertain value?Provide the percentage chance of measurable precipitation at a fixed location during a specified time period, but- Give no information about how long it will rain- Give no information about how much it will rain-Give nocontingency information (ex: the chance of rain is 50%, but if it does rain, the chance of it lasting more than 30 minutes is 5%)
Inspiration rendering products made from them of dubious, uncertain value?: BaseballBatting averages are taken to three decimal places (.334)Statistical verifications are conducted to measure past player performance in order predict future strategies
Can we forge a way forward, get our questions addressed, and understand what comes next…and do all of this today?
Transformation from traditional to ensemble based forecast system where uncertainty is assessed, propagated and conveyed throughout entire forecast process (“End to End”)
Open Discussion understand what comes next…and do all of this today?ACUF Town Hall