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Adaptation to Climate Change and Sustainable Development: A Case study of Bangladesh. Dr. Saleemul Huq Director Climate Change Programme International Institute for Environment and Development, London, United Kingdom. Bangladesh: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Study.

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Adaptation to Climate Change and Sustainable Development: A Case study of Bangladesh

Dr. Saleemul Huq

Director

Climate Change Programme

International Institute for Environment and Development, London, United Kingdom


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Bangladesh: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Study Case study of Bangladesh

  • Carried out in 2000 by Bangladeshi and international team

  • Based on previous work done on assessing vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change impacts

  • Two climate change and sea level scenarios chosen for 2030 and 2050


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Objectives of the study Case study of Bangladesh

  • What are the expected climate changes?

  • What are the consequences for Bangladesh?

  • For what climate change-induced impacts is Bangladesh most vulnerable?

  • How can the potential effects of climate change be factored into policy making, and what adaptation measures for Bangladesh are most feasible?


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Sectors chosen Case study of Bangladesh

  • Coastal resources

  • Fresh Water resources

  • Agriculture

  • Human health

  • Ecosystem and biodiversity


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Geography Case study of Bangladesh

Most elevations under 10m

Climate

Subject to severe natural disasters

Population

1998 population 126 million. High growth rate and population density

Economy

One of the world’s poorest nations. 1999 GNP/capita: $370

Education

Literacy rate of 53%

Human Health

Life expectancy: 58 years. 56% under 5 malnourished

Factors Increasing Bangladesh’s Vulnerability to Climate Change


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Geography Case study of Bangladesh

Most elevations under 10m

Climate

Subject to severe natural disasters

Population

1998 population 126 million. High growth rate and population density

Economy

One of the world’s poorest nations. 1999 GNP/capita: $370

Education

Literacy rate of 53%

Human Health

Life expectancy: 58 years. 56% under 5 malnourished

Factors Increasing Bangladesh’s Vulnerability to Climate Change


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Year Case study of Bangladesh

Sea Level Rise (cm)

Temperature Increase (ºC)

Precipitation Fluctuation Compared to 1990 (%)

2030

30

+0.7 in monsoon; +1.3 in winter

-3 in winter; + 11 in monsoon

2050

50

+1.1 in monsoon; +1.8 in winter

-37 in winter; + 28 in monsoon

Climate Change Scenarios


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Key Impacts and Measures Case study of Bangladesh

Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Physical adaptations

Increasing infrastructure drainage capacity

Some bridges and culverts are poorly designed. Water and road infrastructure lacks maintenance

Tidal basins

New concept: early results are promising

Institutional Adaptations

Proper O&M arrangements, including establishment of local water management

Poor institutional framework. Local government needs to be involved

Design criteria for drainage capacity infrastructure

Poorly designed and implemented. May be ineffective in coastal zones

Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Drainage Congestion in Coastal Areas


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Key Impacts and Measures Case study of Bangladesh

Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Physical adaptations

Resuscitation of river networks

Could be meaningful in short-term, especially in south-west

Surface water flow from upstream e.g. by diversion or withdrawal from rivers

Capital intensive, but cross-dams could prevent saline water intrusion. Process should include EIA/SIA

Institutional Adaptations

Operation of sluices and regulators

Poor existing management

Water saving techniques

Not applied at maximum capacity. Could pose socio-economic problems to farmers

Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Salinization in Coastal Areas


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Key Impacts and Measures Case study of Bangladesh

Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Physical adaptations

Mangrove greenbelts

Started. Needs re-evaluation and continuation

Cross dams

Needs-assessment necessary for new dams. Adverse effects elsewhere. Could be expensive

Institutional Adaptations

Protection of mangroves and coastal wetlands

Evaluation of activities needed, especially regarding maximizing social benefits

Land tenure laws

Evaluation needed

Adaptation Measures to Improve Morphological Dynamics in Coastal Areas


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Key Impacts and Measures Case study of Bangladesh

Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Physical adaptations

Cyclone shelters

Already proven. Highly socially acceptable

Mangrove greenbelts

Started. Needs evaluation

Institutional Adaptations

Forecasting and dissemination

Flood and cyclone forecasting should be location specific

Involvement of CBOs and volunteers

Should continue

Adaptation Measures for Disasters in Coastal Areas


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Key Risks and Adaptation Measures Case study of Bangladesh

Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Physical adaptations

Increasing drainage capacity of infrastructure

Some bridge and culverts poorly designed. Water and road infrastructure lacks maintenance

Storage

Not evaluated in terms of recharging aquifers

Institutional Adaptations

Guidelines to incorporate CC in long-term planning

Not existing

Reduction of water demand

Need better policies on extraction, paying for use, promoting efficient use

Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Reduced Freshwater Availability


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Key Risks and Adaptation Measures Case study of Bangladesh

Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Physical adaptations

Sufficient road drainage capacity

Poorly designed and maintained infrastructure

Controlled sedimentation and Land-fills

New concepts. Need more understanding

Institutional Adaptations

Improved drainage criteria infrastructure

Not tried yet

Participatory management of water resources infrastructure

Needs adequate policy reforms

Adaptation Measures for Freshwater Drainage Congestion


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Key Risks and Adaptation Measures Case study of Bangladesh

Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Physical adaptations

River training and bank protection

Poorly done. Costly, but river bank protection is high priority

Dredging of navigation channels

Limited coverage

Institutional Adaptations

Guidelines to incorporate CC in long-term planning

Not existing

Improved monitoring and forecast of changes

Needs capacity enhancement

Adaptation Measures to Morphological Dynamics for Freshwater Resources


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Key Risks and Adaptation Measures Case study of Bangladesh

Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Physical adaptations

Elevated land as flood refuge or food shelters

Practiced throughout the country

Flood refuge areas e.g. Dhaka city itself

Needs evaluation

Institutional Adaptations

Improved flood warning and forecasting

Proved effective. Needs more cooperation and to be location specific

Evacuation of vulnerable people and valuables

Limited capacity exists. Costly, especially for the very poor

Adaptation Measures to Increased Freshwater Flooding


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Adaptation Measures Case study of Bangladesh

Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Physical adaptations

Improved irrigation efficiency

Poor. Needs institutional support

Crop diversification

Efforts have met with limited success

Institutional Adaptations

Training programmes and dissemination

Dissemination is poor. Activities need enhancing

Research and development of new (salinity and drought resistant) crops

Research needs enhancing

Adaptation Measures in Agriculture


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Adaptation Measures Case study of Bangladesh

Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Physical adaptations

Water treatment facilities

Low coverage. Poor quality. Needs expanding

Improved sanitation

Coverage increasing

Institutional Adaptations

Surveillance and monitoring of conditions favourable for disease outbreak

Unsatisfactory. Needs co-ordination with media to issue early warnings

Improve public education, especially in reproductive health

Coverage increasing. Quality needs improvement

Adaptation Measures in Human Health


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Adaptation Measures Case study of Bangladesh

Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Integrated ecosystem planning and management

Not yet practiced. Proposed Coastal Zone Development Program could be a vehicle for this

Management of protected areas and 14 ecologically critical areas

Improved understanding needed

Coastal greenbelt

Recently started. Promising results

Agro-forestry development

Ongoing programs need expansion

Adaptation Measures to Protect Ecosystems and Biodiversity


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Main impacts of climate change Case study of Bangladesh

  • Drainage congestions due to higher sea levels and and flooding

  • Reduced fresh water availability

  • Disturbances to morphological processes (mainly in coastal zone)

  • Increased intensity of disasters (extreme events)


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Methodological Issues Addressed Case study of Bangladesh

  • Choosing climate change and sea level rise scenarios

  • Modelling impacts of chosen climate change scenarios on droughts, floods, cyclones

  • Identifying possible adaptations

  • Prioritising adaptation actions


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Process of study Case study of Bangladesh

  • Analysis of climate change impacts using scenarios and models

  • Identification of most vulnerable sectors

  • Identification of possible adaptation actions and measures in each sector

  • Stakeholder–led prioritisation of adaptation actions in each sector

  • Cross-sectoral linkages identified and discussed with stakeholders


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Key findings of the study Case study of Bangladesh

  • Bangladesh faces grave socio-ecological risks if it fails to adapt to climate change

  • Many of the risks are gradual and difficult to differentiate from background variability of climate

  • Coastal areas of the country are specially at risk

  • Adaptation to climate change is fundamentally linked to sustainable development efforts of the country


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Relevance to ongoing policies and programmes Case study of Bangladesh

  • National Water Policy and Water Management Plan

  • Coastal Zone Management Programme

  • National Agriculture Development Plan

  • National Biodiversity Action Plan

  • Sustainable Environmental Management Programme


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Impact on Policy makers-1 Case study of Bangladesh

  • Sectoral level

    • Water Resources

    • Coastal Resources

    • Biodiversity

    • Agriculture

    • Environment


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Impact on Policy makers-2 Case study of Bangladesh

  • National Level

    • Planning

    • Finance

    • Foreign Affairs

    • Prime Minister’s office


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Impacts on Policy makers-3 Case study of Bangladesh

  • International

    • COP 5, 6 and 7

    • LDC group

    • Adaptation issues

    • COP 8 (Delhi)


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Lessons learned Case study of Bangladesh

  • Technical capacity to do analysis of climate change impacts- Good

  • Awareness amongst sectoral planners and policy makers-Reasonable

  • Awareness amongst national policy makers-Low

  • Strategy for international negotiations-None yet


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