World Bank MAMS MDG Costing for Ethiopia: Model overview - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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World Bank MAMS MDG Costing for Ethiopia: Model overview. The model—known as MAMS (Maquette for MDG Simulation)—integrates a dynamic general equilibrium (GE) model with an MDG module that links specific MDG-related interventions to MDG achievements

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World Bank MAMS MDG Costing for Ethiopia: Model overview

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World Bank MAMS MDG Costing for Ethiopia: Model overview

  • The model—known as MAMS (Maquette for MDG Simulation)—integrates a dynamic general equilibrium (GE) model with an MDG module that links specific MDG-related interventions to MDG achievements

  • The model is composed of the following elements:

    • A macro-model that provides a standard framework for growth, aid flows and public finance values upon which a baseline scenario for MDGs can be established

    • A series of supply-demand modules for each of the MDG included in that study.

    • Budgetary and technological constraints explaining how the supply of relevant stocks of production factor can increase the associated budgetary cost.

    • Human capital constraint module explaining how existing capacity to train/produce teachers, doctors and medics restraints human capital accumulation

  • In particular, the model is meant to capture some of the following effects:

    • Absorptive capacity.

    • Spillovers across sectors and MDGs.

    • Macroeconomic implications of additional financing.

    • Interactions between growth and achieving the MDGs.


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World Bank MAMS MDG Costing for Ethiopia: Results and critique

  • The main findings of this analysis are as follows:

  • Under a scenario of business as usual, Ethiopia is unlikely to achieve the MDGs for health, education, and the environment (water and sanitation).

  • Pursuit of the MDGs without significant foreign financial support would involve difficult trade-offs between allocation of resources to private and public sectors, and between different MDGs.

  • If the outside world provides the financing needed to reach the MDGs 2, 4 and 5, total foreign aid during the period 2002-2015 amounts to $36.6 billion, with a final-year per-capita aid figure of $52.

  • The total amount of aid needed may change as a result of a broad range of policy choices.

  • Several limitations undermine the value of the model:

  • A partial model: MDG 3 (to achieve gender equality in education) is not addressed as well as parts of MDG 6 (combating major diseases other than HIV/AIDS, primarily malaria and TB) and MDG 7 (achieving environmental sustainability).

  • Inability to capture complementarities

  • A biased interpretation of absorptive capacity


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