slide1
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Le pic de la production mondiale de gaz naturel et ses impacts

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 24

PARTIE 1 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 468 Views
  • Uploaded on

ASSOCIATION FRANCAISE DU GAZ. Le pic de la production mondiale de gaz naturel et ses impacts. Pierre-René BAUQUIS Professeur Associé ENSPM (IFP School) Professeur TPA (TOTAL Professeurs Associés) Ancien Directeur Gaz Electricité Charbon du Groupe Total. PARTIE 1.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'PARTIE 1' - Jimmy


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
slide1

ASSOCIATION FRANCAISE DU GAZ

Le pic de la production mondiale de gaz naturel et ses impacts

Pierre-René BAUQUIS

Professeur Associé ENSPM (IFP School)

Professeur TPA (TOTAL Professeurs Associés)

Ancien Directeur Gaz Electricité Charbon du Groupe Total

1

partie 1
PARTIE 1

RAPPEL : LA PROBLEMATIQUE DU PIC

DU PETROLE

2

brief summary of past findings and views
Brief summary of past findings and views
  • The only "publically available data" on oil reserves are the so called "proven reserves".
  • Unfortunately, they are totally useless to study and predict "Peak Oil".
  • The only "usable" concepts for "peak oil estimation", at oil basins levels, countries levels or world level are :
    • Ultimate reserves concept
    • Evolution of past exploration performances and production curves (creaming curves)
    • King Hubbert methodology (world applicability).

3

slide4

2000 – 2006 : a historical warning by ASPO

Are we here ?

ASPO France members

(June 2006):

Jean Laherrère (formerly Total)

Pierre-René Bauquis (fy Total)

Carlos Cramez (fy Total)

Jean-Luc Wingert

Xavier Chavannes (Paris VII)

Jean-Marc Jancovici (fy Envt)

Alain Perrodon (fy Elf)

Paul Alba (fy Elf)

Maurice Allègre (fy IFP)

Jacques Varet (BRGM)

Adolphe Nicolas (Montpellier Uni)

Jean-Marie Bourdaire (ex Total)

Bernard Rogeaux (EDF)

A few ‘peak oil’ websites

3w.peakoil.net

3w.aspofrance.org

3w.oilcrisis.com

3w.peakoil.com

4

slide5

1973

2000

GTOE

Years of

consumption

GTOE

Years of

consumption

Oil world reserves

Gas world reserves

86

52

30

48

140

140

40

65

Observing the "visible part of the iceberg" leads to conclude that we have plentiful and fast growing oil and gas reserves and that there is no problem

PROVEN RESERVES : AN OPTIMISTIC PICTURE

5

slide6

What the R/P (Reserves/Production) ratio means

World oil production (Mbep/d)

??

?

!

30 years

R/P = 40 years

this area = already used

this area = reserves left

6

slide7

But a closer look (at ultimate reserves) suggests

a different picture

Ultimate reserves

(conventional crude, worldwide)

1973

2000

G barrels

2000 - 3000

2000 - 3000

Between 1973 and 2000, ultimate reserve estimateshave practically remained flat.

source: PR Bauquis 26-28 novembre 2000 - Global Foundation

7

slide8

* Cumulative production + proven reserves +

possible reserves yet to be discovered

Gb

Pratt (1942)

Duce (1946)

Pouge (1946)

Weeks (1948)

Leverson (1949)

Weeks (1949)

MacNaughton (1953)

Hubbert (1956)

Weeks (1958)

Weeks (1959)

Hendricks (1965)

Ryamn (1967)

Shell (1968)

Weeks (1968)

Hubbert (1969)

Moody (1970)

Weeks (1971)

Warman (1972)

Bauquis (1972)

Schweinfurth (1973)

Linden (1973)

Bonillas (1974)

Howitt (1974)

Moody (1975)

WEC (1977)

Nelson (1977)

De Bruyne (1978)

Klemme (1978)

Nehring (1978)

Nehring (1979)

Halbouty (1979)

Meyerhoff (1979)

Roorda (1979)

Halbouty (1979)

WEC (1980)

Strickland (1981)

Coliti (1981)

Nehring (1982)

Masters (1983)

Kalinin (1983)

Martin (1984)

Ivanhoe (1984)

Masters (1987)

Campbell (1991)

Masters (1991)

Townes (1993)

Petroconsult. (1993)

Masters (1994)

USGS (2000)

1940

1949

1950

1959

1960

1969

1970

1979

1980

1989

1990

2000

HISTORICAL VIEWS ON ULTIMATE RESERVES

Source: IFP/DSEP adapted from Martin (1985) and Campbell (1992) - Updated 2000

8

the irreversible decline of oil productions in the usa
THE IRREVERSIBLE DECLINE OF OIL PRODUCTIONSIN THE USA

(*) Discoveries are registered as per their initially declared sizes and their timing is « forwarded » by 33 years

Source : King Hubbert 1956 - Updated by Jean Laherrere

9

slide10

Gboe/year (5-year average)

70

Sources:

- Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005)

- Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)

Deep sea (>500m)

60

58

Kashagan / Shah Deniz

‘Classic’ exploration

Excl. non-conventional oils such as Athabasca and Orenoco

Liquid HC production

50

47

39

40

36

36

34

32

29

30

26

27

24

23

23

20

21

20

20

15

0.9

16

14

13

12

1.5

9

11

4.2

10

7

4.7

2.2

7

5

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

01/05

06/10

11/15

16/20

21/25

26/30

31/35

36/40

41/45

46/50

51/55

56/60

61/65

66/70

71/75

76/80

81/85

86/90

91/95

96/00

2001 -

2004 (*)

(*) 4-year average

Oil and condensate discoveries and worldwide production of liquid hydrocarbons

10

prospective de la production p troli re mondiale first draft final draft objective end 2006
Prospective de la production pétrolière mondiale(first draft : final draft objective end 2006)

2005

2020

2050

2100

Production par pays ou Zones géographiques

(hydrocarbures liquides naturels

Pays de l’OCDE 2005

8

6

3

1

USA

Canada

3

4

5

3

Mer du Nord

6

4

1

0.5

1

Autres

1

1

0.5

Sous total

18

15

10

5

Pays de l’OPEC 2005

Arabie

9

12

7

4

Iran

3.5

5

3

2

Irak

2.5

5

4

2

Koweit

2

3

2

1

Venezuela

2

4

5

4

Algérie + Libye

2

3

1

0.5

Nigéria

2

3

1

0.5

Emirats + Qatar

3

4

1

0.5

Autres

1

1

1

0.5

Sous total

27

40

25

15

Pays non OCDE – non OPEC

Russie et autres : Kazakstan, Azerbaïdjan,

Angola, Mexique, Argentine, Colombie,

Brésil, Congo, etc…

36

43

30

20

Schistes

bitumineux

4

10

Total Monde GTep / mb/d

4 / 81

5 / 98

3.5 /69

2.6 /50

11

conclusions about peak oil
Conclusions about "peak oil"
  • Since June 2006 it can be considered that views about Peak Oil in France have become reasonably similar :
    • TOTAL : Thierry Desmarest – around 2020 / around 100 Mb/d
    • ASPO France : J. Laherrère – around 2015 / less than 100 Mb/d
    • IFP : Y. Mathieu –ondulated plateau 20150/2030 – less than 100 Mb/d
  • This point of view is widely different from those among the "optimists" who believe that Peak Oil is not "reserves related" but a political problem : insufficient investments and restrictive policies about investments by OPEC countries, Russia and Mexico :
    • Exxon-Mobil – ongoing at ad. Campaign "no signs of peak oil"
    • Aramco – July 2006 – "no reserves problems"
    • BP : John Browne – May 2006 - "There is no reserves problem"
    • Mike Lynch (ex MIT) – "similar and above 120 Mb/d"
    • USGS, DOE, EIA, IEA…

12

partie 2
PARTIE 2

LA PROBLEMATIQUE DU PIC

DU GAZ

14

applicabilit au gaz des m thodologies utilisables pour le pic p trolier
Applicabilité au gaz des méthodologiesutilisables pour le pic pétrolier
  • Réserves ultimes et
  • courbes d\'écrémage

. oui, mais incertitudes très différentes de celles du pétrole (taux de récupération facteur majeur pour le pétrole, secondaire pour le gaz).

. Moindre maturité de l\'exploration gaz pour le Courbes d\'écrémage.

. Plus d\'incertitudes pour les ressources en place non conventionnelles de gaz que de pétrole ?

Etudes "bottom-up" : . Méthodologie la plus prometteuse.

Courbes de Hubbert : . L\'échec aux USA

. L\'applicabilité probable au plan mondial.

15

slide16

Gboe/uear (5-year average)

70

65

Deep sea (>500m)

60

Kashagan / Shah Deniz

‘Classic’ exploration

52

Liquid HC production

50

Sources:

- Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005)

- Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)

40

30

26

23

23

20

18

15

16

15

14

13

14

11

3.9

11

9

10

1.4

8

7

8

6

6

2.2

3

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

01/05

06/10

11/15

16/20

21/25

26/30

31/35

36/40

41/45

46/50

51/55

56/60

61/65

66/70

71/75

76/80

81/85

86/90

91/95

96/00

2001 -

2004 (*)

(*) 4-year average

Gas-hydrocarbon discoveries and production worldwide

(Hubbert methodology for world gas)

16

slide21

Evolution historique de la production nette de gaz dans le monde

(1950-2004 – gaz commercialisé)

Source : Cedigaz 2006

21

vision pr bauquis du profil gazier mondial
Vision PR. Bauquis du profil gazier mondial

Plateau à

6000 Gm3/an

  • pic/plateau : 2030-2050

4000 Gm3/an

Réserves ultimes >400 Gtep

 Vision LEPII

pic/plateau : 2030-2050

Réserves ultimes > 500 GTep

pic plateau : 2020-2030

4000 Gm3/an

Réerves ultimes > 300 GTep

23

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Il reste beaucoup de travail à faire pour mieux déterminer les deux paramètres essentiels du "pic gaz" au plan mondial :
    • Date ou fourchette de dates
    • Niveau de production mondiale.
  • L\'IFP; l\'AFGTP, l\'AFG… et l\'ASPO doivent y consacrer des efforts importants car les enjeux sont majeurs : ce devrait être un pôle privilégié de coopération entre l\'AFG et l\'AFTP.
  • Il faut que ces travaux soient consacrés tant aux études globales ("Top Down") que détaillées ("Bottom Up").

(objectif PRB 2007 : un profil gaz mondial long terme "Bottom Up")

24

ad