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Overview: Arms Control and Nonproliferation in East Asia. Dr. Jing-dong Yuan, EANP Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies October 2003. Current Issues and Challenges . Historical Background Current Capabilities Ongoing Challenges

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Overview: Arms Control and Nonproliferation in East Asia

Dr. Jing-dong Yuan, EANP

Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International StudiesOctober 2003


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Current Issues and Challenges

  • Historical Background

  • Current Capabilities

  • Ongoing Challenges

  • Possible Arms Control Measures


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Regional Tension: History

  • Historical legacies of WWII

    • Japanese aggression and aftermath

  • Divided states (Korea, China/Taiwan)

    • Cold War left-overs

  • Territorial conflicts

    • South/East Asian Islands

  • Changing power relations

    • Chinese military modernization

    • US-Japan-South Korea relations

    • Increasing interdependence


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NORTHEAST ASIA SECURITY AND ARMS CONTROL ISSUES

  • Territorial

    • PRC - Japan: Diaoyu Islands

    • Japan-Korea: Takeshima Islands

    • Russia - Japan: Kurile Islands Sovereignty

  • Sovereignty

    • PRC – Taiwan

    • North Korea - South Korea

  • Proliferation

    • North Korea – Nuclearization

    • North Korea - Export of WMD items

    • United States - Theater missle defense

    • China - Items to South Asia and middle East

    • Dual-use technology

  • Other

    • US - Japan defense agreement

    • US - Taiwan: Taiwan Relations Act


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WMD Capacity in NE Asia: North Korea

  • Withdrew from NPT

  • Nuclear weapons capabilities

    • Unaccounted fissile material for 1-3 weapons

    • Secret uranium enrichment program admitted to Oct 2002

    • Not yet tested NW, but has done high explosive tests

    • Potential for significant arsenal in 1-2 years


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WMD Capacity in NE Asia: North Korea

  • Ballistic missile capabilities

    • Scud B and Cs

    • No-dong MRBMs

    • Taepo-dong 1,2,3 under development

    • Miniaturization of nuclear warhead still in question

  • Proliferation Threat

    • Missile exports seen as income earner


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WMD Capacity in NE Asia: China

  • Nuclear weapons capabilities

    • Recognized Nuclear Weapon State

    • First nuclear test 1964

    • Last test 1996

    • Extensive nuclear weapons capability

    • Acceded to NPT, Signed CTBT

    • Member, Zangger Committee

    • NWFZs, NFU Doctrine, Security Assurances


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WMD Capacity in NE Asia: China

  • Ballistic missiles capabilities

    • 400 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) in Fujian

    • Approx. 90 MRBMs (DF-3 and DF-21/21A)

    • Approx. 20 IRBMs (DF-4)

    • Approx. 20 ICBMs (DF-5)

    • Not member of MTCR, but export controls coincide with regime


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WMD Capacity in NE Asia: Japan

  • No WMD programs

    • CBW programs in WWII

    • Potential capability to produce nuclear weapons and missiles in relatively short time

  • Nuclear capabilities

    • Party to NPT and CTBT; Member, NSG and Zangger Committee

    • After WWII, ‘nuclear allergy’

    • Recent debate about nuclear future

    • Controversial nuclear energy program and plutonium stockpiles


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WMD Capacity in NE Asia: Japan

  • Ballistic missile capacity

    • Space launch vehicle program

    • May 2003 launched spy satellites

    • Still lacks some key technologies for missiles

    • Member MTCR

  • Missile defense

    • Aegis Destroyers

    • Expanding BMD cooperation with U.S.


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WMD Capacity in NE Asia: South Korea

  • Nuclear capacity

    • Nuclear weapons program stopped in mid-1980s under US pressure

    • Member NPT, CTBT

    • Signed, but never fully implemented, the “Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of The Korean Peninsula”

    • Extensive nuclear energy industry


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WMD Capacity in NE Asia: South Korea

  • CBW capabilities

    • Ratified CWC and BWC

    • Declared CW program in 1997

    • Concerns about CBW capabilities of North

    • Well-developed pharmaceutical and biotech infrastructure

  • Ballistic missile capabilities

    • Building SRBMs up to MTCR limits

    • Member, MTCR

    • Developing SLVs


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WMD Capacity in NE Asia: Taiwan

  • Nuclear capabilities

    • Nuclear weapons program stopped in mid-1980s under US pressure

    • Developed nuclear energy program

  • Ballistic missile capabilities

    • Had ballistic missile programs in past

    • SRBM Tien Chi, first test-fired in 1997

      • Solid-fueled, two-stage missile with a 300 km range that can reach China’s southeastern coast

  • Missile Defense

    • Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) systems

    • Potentially seeking advanced missile defense

      • PAC-3 systems and Aegis radar-equipped destroyers


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THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR CRISIS

  • Programs began in the 1950s

  • Signed NPT in 1985; IAEA safeguards agreement 1992

  • 1993-1994 nuclear crisis

  • 1994 Agreed Framework and key provisions

  • October 2002 revelation of uranium enrichment programs


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THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR CRISIS

  • North Korean nuclear and missile brinkmanship

    • Between 1994 and 2002, Agreed Framework capped North Korea fissile material production

      • Exchange for light-water reactor under construction

      • IAEA verification measures

    • North Korean freeze on ballistic missile flight tests

      • Static engine tests continuing

      • Exports of missiles, missile technology continuing

  • North Korea’s CBW threat

    • Capacity to hit Japan and South Korea


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THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR CRISIS

  • Current Crisis

    • October 2002: Admits to secret uranium-enrichment program

    • November 2002: US halts oil shipments to DPRK

    • November 2002: Confusion over apparent admission

    • December 2002: Yemen bound boat stopped

    • December 2002: Breaks seals at Yongbyon; Moves fuel rods; expels IAEA inspectors


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THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR CRISIS

  • Current Crisis

    • January 2003: IAEA demands that North Korea readmit inspectors

    • January 2003: North Korea withdraws from NPT

    • January 2003: Fears of reprocessing

    • February 2003: North Korea claims it has reactivated Yongbyon reactor


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THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR CRISIS

  • Current Crisis:

    • February/March 2003: North Korea test fires naval missiles

    • April 2003: UNSC expresses concern

    • April 2003: Beijing trilateral talks

    • May to July 2003: Stalemate between US and DPRK; China and other regional players step up diplomacy

    • Six-party talks in Beijing; next round November


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NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMS

  • 5-MWe reactor Yongbyon (1985)

  • 50-MWe reactor (Yongbyon) and 200-MWe reactor (Taechon), both under construction at the time of AF

  • 8,000 spent fuel rods in storage (estimated material for 5 weapons)

  • Uranium enrichment facilities?


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NORTH KOREAN CAPACITY IN NUCLEAR WEAPONS PRODUCTION

  • Plutonium from 1989 extraction (material for 1 to 2 weapons)

  • Reprocessed 8,000 spent fuel rods in storage (estimated material for 5 weapons)

  • 5MW(e) Experimental Reactor: 5.5 kg plutonium per year (approximately enough for 1 weapon per year)

  • HEU program: approximately 100 kg HEU per year for 6 weapons

  • Completed 50MW(e) Nuclear Power Plant in Yongbyon-kun: 55 kg of plutonium per year for 7-10 bombs

  • 200MW(e) Nuclear Power Plant located in T'aech'on: 220 kg of plutonium per year for 30-40 weapons


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US POLICY TOWARD THE DPRK

  • 1993-1994 negotiation leading to AF

  • 1999 Berlin Agreement on missile test moratorium

  • Marshall Jo Myong-rok’s visit to Washington, DC

  • Albright’s visit to Pyongyang

  • Bush administration’s North Korea policy review; State of Union address and NPR

  • Kelly visit


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NORTH KOREAN DEMANDS

  • Nonaggression pact with the US

  • Political recognition

  • Non obstruction of North Korea’s economic development, including removal from terrorist country list, lifting of economic sanctions, and access to int’l financial institutions

  • Economic assistance in exchange of suspension of WMD programs (“satisfy US security concerns”)


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US POSITIONS & OPTIONS

  • North Korea must dismantle its nuclear weapons programs

  • No bilateral negotiation with Pyongyang

  • Multilateral forum to discuss the North Korean nuclear issue

  • Concerted multinational efforts to pressure North Korea; IAEA/UN resolutions

  • Proliferation Security Initiative

  • Military options


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REGIONAL REACTIONS

  • South Korea

    - stability; no war; negotiate a peaceful resolution

  • Japan

    - peaceful solution; enhance defense; more receptive to sanction measures

  • Russia

    - concerned over escalation; seek solution and Russia’s role

  • China

    - stability; peaceful solution; NK security concerns addressed


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RISKS OF CONTINUING IMPASSE

  • Pyongyang may move from playing nuclear cards to seriously developing nuclear weapons

  • Continuing impasse gives DPRK time to reprocess fissile materials and HEU for making nuclear bombs

  • North Korea could export nuclear materials

  • Nuclear chain reactions in the region (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan)


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RISKS OF MILITARY SOLUTION

  • Uncertainty about exact locations of nuclear facilities

  • Danger of unleashing all-out war on the peninsula, with massive casualties

  • Pyongyang may resort to WMD use

  • US troops and Japan become targets

  • Economic devastation, environmental degradation and refugee flows


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SEEKING SOLUTIONS

Solution of nuclear crisis requires phased approaches

  • Defuse the nuclear escalation through bilateral/multilateral talks

  • Develop new, comprehensive verifiable arms control & nonproliferation mechanisms

  • US-DPRK ending war status and mutual recognition

  • Multilateral security arrangement

  • International economic & development assistance


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Regional Arms Control Issues: Proliferation Concerns

  • China’s previous assistance to Pakistan and North Korea

    • Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, missiles depended heavily on Chinese assistance

    • Some technology continues to flow to Pakistan, North Korea

  • Growing recognition of potential threat to China’s security


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Regional Arms Control Issues: Proliferation Concerns

  • China strengthening export controls

    • New regulations and control lists, 2002

    • Use of ‘catch-all’ clauses

    • Coinciding with NSG, MTCR, Australia Group lists

    • Continuing concerns about domestic capacity

    • Increased US sensitivity about spread of WMD materials has provoked sanctions

    • Seeks reciprocity: Wants limits on US arms sales to Taiwan


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Regional Arms Control Issues: Proliferation Concerns

  • North Korean proliferation threat

    • Important source of DPRK income

    • Supporting Pakistan, Iranian missile programs

    • Concerns about transfers to non-state actors

  • Nuclear domino effect

    • Increases chance of pushing other Asian countries in direction of defenses and deterrents


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Regional Arms Control Issues: Reactions to security challenges

  • Will Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan remain non-nuclear?

    • Japan sees increasing threat from China and North Korea

    • South Korea more relaxed

    • Taiwan feels threatened, but constrained

  • Increasing interest in offensive options to deter, respond to missile threats


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Regional Arms Control Issues: Missile Defense

  • Sino-U.S. strategic relations and missile defenses

    • China sees U.S. missile defenses as aimed at China’s deterrent

    • U.S. sees China modernizing and increasing strategic forces

  • U.S. and allies see missile threat from North Korea

  • Potential for negative strategic interactions


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Possible Arms Control Measures

  • Talks to end current North Korea standoff

    • Questions about format (bilateral vs multilateral)

    • All regional players involved

      • China playing increasingly active role

    • Agreement still looks distant

    • Other options undesirable

      • Sanctions/Blockade

      • Military Action

      • Acceptance of a nuclear North Korea


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Possible Arms Control Measures

  • Regional Confidence Building Measures

    • ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)

    • NWFZs

  • Strategic restraint

    • Unilateral or reciprocal limits on capabilities

    • Coupled with political efforts to improve relations

  • Strategic dialogue

    • Making force structure interactions clear

    • Transparency about arsenals, intentions


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