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# Numerical Weather Prediction - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Numerical Weather Prediction at MeteoSwiss. 29th EWGLAM meeting. 8th of October 2007. Preoperational chain COSMO. COSMO-7 at 6.6km resolution. COSMO-2 at 2.2km resolution .

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### Numerical Weather Predictionat MeteoSwiss

29th EWGLAM meeting

8th of October 2007

COSMO-7 at 6.6km resolution

COSMO-2 at 2.2km resolution

Mesh sizes: 3/50° ~ 6.6km 1/50° ~ 2.2kmMaximum height 3122m 3950mDomains: 393x338x60 = 7'970'040 GP 520x350x60 = 10’920’000 GPBoundary conditions every 3h from IFS/ECMWF hourly from COSMO-7

Forecasts 2 x 72h forecasts per day 8 x 24h forecasts per day (every 3h)

Initial conditions nudging to observations same, use of radar (latent heat nudging)

Pre-operationalnow(operational beginning of 2008)

390 Gflops sustained (816 processors; 9% of peak) on CrayXT4 at CSCS, Manno

good

Fuzzy verification for high resolution precipitation

Fuzzy scores provide a wealth of information,

but

• the results seems to be contrasting

• their interpretation is sometimes difficult

• contain too many numbers

Application

Testbed

Virtual truth

(Radar data, model data, synthetic field)

Fuzzy Verification Toolbox

Perturbation Generator

Realizations of virtual erroneousmodel forecasts

Analyzer

Realizations ofverification results

• Assessment of

• sensitivity (mean)

• [reliability (STD)]

• Two ingredients:

• Reference fields, e.g. radar derived rain fields,

• Perturbations:

Result:

Evaluation of the scores

Warning of extreme eventsusing calibrated COSMO-LEPS products

30 years reforecasts

1 deterministic run

calibrate with climatology