Regional communities driving regional impact assessments
1 / 35

Regional Communities Driving Regional Impact Assessments - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

  • Updated On :

Regional Communities Driving Regional Impact Assessments. Jo Mummery Head Land Management and Science Branch Presentation to the Second International Conference on Climate Impacts Assessments 30 th June 2004. Needs for Adaptable Regional Communities . How are we currently placed?.

Related searches for Regional Communities Driving Regional Impact Assessments

I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Regional Communities Driving Regional Impact Assessments' - Jeffrey

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Regional communities driving regional impact assessments l.jpg

Regional Communities Driving Regional Impact Assessments

Jo Mummery


Land Management and Science Branch

Presentation to the

Second International Conference on Climate Impacts Assessments

30th June 2004

How are we currently placed l.jpg
How are we currently placed?

  • Knowledge of likely change

    • - Adequate national projections



Source: CSIRO 2001

Science knowledge needs l.jpg
Science knowledge needs

  • Resolution - scale for decision making

  • Probabilistic analysis

  • Extreme events analysis

    • Likely to become more frequent and severe

    • Huge economic impact - 2002/3 drought: $6.6 billion &

      Gov’t assistance of $1.2 billion

    • Improved projections of extreme events- observations, specialised and high resolution modelling

  • Variability and change links

Current understanding of adaptation needs options l.jpg
Current understanding of adaptation needs & options

  • Adaptation needs & options explored:

    • Water resources (learning from real 25% reduction in rainfall, 40% reduction in streamflow in sw WA)

    • Analysis of agricultural options (learning from variability)

    • Land use suitability

    • Biodiversity and climate change

    • Some analysis of transport infrastructure

    • Risk assessment for human health

  • Tools (socio-economic analysis tools lacking)

    • Sectoral costs of climate change impacts

  • Overall- there is still a long way to go!

The way forward l.jpg
The way forward

  • New Climate Change Adaptation Programme

  • Building national capacity

    • Improving the science/research base

    • Assessing the costs of impacts/cost-benefit tools

    • Communication and engagement

    • Integrated assessment

    • Developing impact and adaptation tools

  • Partnerships with States and industry to address national priorities (TAR, national risk assessment, consultation) – water, agriculture, coastal cities and infrastructure, key regions (MDB, sw WA, CGBR)

Slide8 l.jpg

Case study 1: Cairns - Great Barrier Reef region (CGBR) integrated scoping study

Photos courtesy of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority

The cairns gbr region l.jpg
The Cairns-GBR Region integrated scoping study

Left photo: courtesy of National Oceans Office

The cgbr region l.jpg
The CGBR region integrated scoping study

  • Extremely significant natural values (2 World Heritage Areas)

  • Regional economy relies heavily on tourism and agriculture

  • Population around 250,000

  • Gross regional product: $4.4 billion pa

    Tourism worth approx. $1 billion pa

  • Vulnerable to increased ocean & atmospheric temperatures, sea level rise, extreme events (cyclones, storm surges)

  • Vulnerability identified in TAR

Overall design broad stakeholder base the key l.jpg
Overall design - broad stakeholder base the key integrated scoping study

  • Scoping study for full assessment – benefit transfer opportunities

  • 150 stakeholder invited to workshops supported by expert presentations. Stakeholders split into 3 groups

  • Workshops steps:

    • Stakeholders identify current climate issues & key regional sensitivities supported by expert presentations

    • Stakeholders determine non-climate stresses & climate change impacts on region, industries & communities

    • Stakeholders identify possible actions to deal with impacts, including barriers & synergies

    • Stakeholders prioritise issues & actions for the region

Step 1 climate dependencies l.jpg
Step 1: climate dependencies integrated scoping study

  • Natural ecosystem sustainability susceptible to temp, rf and extreme events

  • Tourism – temp extremes in summer (visitor number decline during coral bleaching periods)

  • Human health – vector borne diseases climate links (certain mosquitoes more difficult to control with increasing temp and rf)

  • Urban infrastructure – housing design and water provision susceptible to extreme events

  • Agriculture – variability primary productivity driver. Control of pests and weeds influenced by temp, rf. Fisheries – cyclones destroy habitat

  • Water resources – irrigation and environmental flows dependent on variations in rf and evaporation, extreme events relevant

  • Overall – no surprises, but immensely valuable for stakeholders. Provided solid information base for consideration of climate change and impacts

Step 2 climate change impacts l.jpg
Step 2: climate change impacts integrated scoping study

  • Stakeholders developed matrices linking sector issues to climate attributes

  • Agriculture (sugar, horticulture, cattle/beef)

    • Strongly climate dependent with varying impacts between industries

    • Potential short-term  in plant production (CO2-fertilisation)

    • More than offset by long-term  moisture availability

    • Changes in pest/weed incidence bring greater stress and increase costs

    • Heat stress on livestock – reduced milk yield (4-9%)

    • Reduced pasture production (10-30% by 2070)

      Natural systems and biodiversity

      Major issue – magnitude of biodiversity loss, limited reversibility

    • Sea level rise impact on coastal ecosystems (e.g. mangroves)

    • Reduced moisture for wet tropical rainforests

    • Endemic vertebrates reduced distribution by 60% with 1°C 

    • Weed spread to upland areas (links to other stresses)

Step 2 climate change impacts ctd l.jpg
Step 2: climate change impacts ctd integrated scoping study

  • Water resources

    • Combination of population growth and increases in temp and evaporation will increase demand

    • Possible reduced water quality through increased frequency of toxic algal blooms. Might be offset by more extreme rainfall events

    • Extreme rainfall events will increase amount of suspended sediment, negative flow-on effects on reef

    • Illustrates complexity of stakeholder identified interactions

    • Challenges to stormwater infrastructure with extreme rainfall events

Slide15 l.jpg

Current 1-in-100 year storm surge extent integrated scoping study

1-in-100 year storm surge extent under 2xCO2 conditions

  • Coastal regions, GBR

    •  intense cyclones and storm surges: significant damage to infrastructure and essential services (Figure below- storm surge impact on Cairns)

    • Ocean warming, sea level rise, coral bleaching

Step 3 p ossible adaptation actions l.jpg
Step 3: P integrated scoping studyossible adaptation actions

  • Adaptation options were identified by stakeholders eg

    • Agriculture and water

      • Cropping and grazing:  water efficiency, species selection and modify management cycles

    • Pests, diseases & health

      • Design appropriate weed and pest controls (area targeted, improved detection), improve extreme weather early warning systems

    • Natural systems and GBR

      • Lower other environmental stresses to improve adaptive capacity

      • Mangrove buffer to facilitate inland retreat (other benefits)

    • Coastal and urban regions

      • Rehabilitate erosion prone coastal areas

      • New building standards for more extreme weather, development planning

      • Stormwater design

Step 4 p rioritise issues actions for the region l.jpg
Step 4: P integrated scoping studyrioritise issues & actions for the region

  • Stakeholder were asked to prioritise impact importance and adaptation options

    - Priority 1: Water quality and availability

    • Priority 2: The Great Barrier Reef and tourism

    • Priority 3: Agriculture

    • Etc

  • Regional economic issues drove priority setting

  • Addressing knowledge gaps a cross-cutting priority, particularly socio-economic impacts, higher resolution scenarios, and integrated analyses

Some challenges and research priorities revealed from study l.jpg
Some challenges and research priorities revealed from study integrated scoping study

  • Regional projections - spatially understand vulnerability and risk at temporal and spatial scales needed for decision-making

  • Limited understanding of links between biophysical & socio-economic impacts - integrated assessments for key sectors needed, and tools to assess multiple impacts at regional scale

  • Regional modelling of land use and socio-economic change – needed to examine trade-offs between different land uses and sectors under different scenarios

  • Need to incorporate climate change in sectoral models

  • Enhanced monitoring needed eg sea level rise

Lessons and where to from here l.jpg
Lessons and where to from here integrated scoping study

  • Need to formalise adaptation – better links between Govts and industry, and removal of inconsistent policies

  • Utilising communication networks – options, what works

  • Adaptation strategies require engagement of regional authority, community and industry

    • Local solutions to local problems

  • AGO is investigating conducting a full integrated assessment of the region in collaboration with State Governments and research agencies

  • Potential benefit transfer of methods to other regions

Planning for climate change l.jpg
Planning for climate change integrated scoping study

  • The context

    • Regional and Local Government planners have a key role in helping communities adapt to climate change and planning decisions need to consider climate change

    • Many difficult and potentially costly impacts

  • The project

    • The PIA: Sustainable Regional and Urban Communities Adapting to Climate Change

Regional and urban communities adapting to climate change l.jpg
Regional and urban communities adapting to climate change integrated scoping study

  • Four-stage project aimed at preparing our communities and industries for the impacts associated with climate change through delivery of toolkit for planners

  • Project has been driven and undertaken by a professional body (the Planning Institute of Australia) concerned about climate change impacts

  • Sponsored by diverse interest groups (Govts, Insurance Australia Group, City Councils etc)

  • Into stage 3 and already award winning process!

The stages l.jpg
The stages integrated scoping study

  • Scoping study- consultation to establish the project need

  • Issues paper- establishing the basis for engagement of planners

  • Developing the tools for planners and communities

  • Refining tools and capacity building through regional participation

Stage 1 establishing the need l.jpg
Stage 1- establishing the need integrated scoping study

  • Scoping study to identify the current state of knowledge in the planning profession

  • Extensive stakeholder consultation

    • 50 participants were interviewed spanning government and consultant planners plus insurance representatives

Stage 1 results l.jpg
Stage 1: results integrated scoping study

Stage 1 results26 l.jpg
Stage 1: results integrated scoping study

  • No current tools, but suggestions included

    • Risk management framework

    • Land capability

    • Vulnerability assessment

    • Community consultation

  • Regional level most appropriate for climate change

  • Forecasts are seen as too uncertain and lack political and community support

  • There is an expectation nationally and internationally that planning will do 'something'. (PIA 2002)

Stage 2 establishing the basis l.jpg
Stage 2: establishing the basis integrated scoping study

  • A series of issues papers looking at planning for climate change adaptation

    • Climate science

    • Natural environment

    • Built environment

    • Socio-legal considerations

Peer reviewed at a workshop

Stage 2 results hot off the press l.jpg
Stage 2 results - hot off the press! integrated scoping study

Stage 2 results ctd l.jpg
Stage 2 results - ctd integrated scoping study


  • Planners need to be proactive in advising govts/statutory agencies on risks and in working with communities on adaptation options

  • Potential legal liability – duty of care to the community (compensation claims, “do nothing” could lead to a claim of negligence)

  • Planning measures to limit risk important – need to adopt a precautionary approach

  • Awareness of potential implications for insurance premiums or availability (eg a 25% increase in peak wind gusts can generate a 6.5 fold increase in building claims,impacting on insurance industry’s underwriting capacity in vulnerable regions)

(PIA 2002)

Planning considerations l.jpg
Planning considerations integrated scoping study

Land use

(PIA 2002)

Stage 3 establishing the tools l.jpg
Stage 3: establishing the tools integrated scoping study

  • Based on needs identified by stakeholders, planning tools to be developed to help planners and communities address adaptation to climate change.

  • A complex framework spanning regional land use planning, natural resource management planning, local government planning schemes and laws

  • Systematic tools based on risk assessment that relate to infrastructure planning, development assessment guidelines, issues for local legislation, regional strategies

Stage 4 fine tuning and capacity building l.jpg
Stage 4: fine tuning and capacity building integrated scoping study

  • Issues papers and tools to be workshopped through Planning Institute

  • Professional development to be driven by industry association

  • Tool kit to be web based and updated

Lessons and where to from here33 l.jpg
Lessons and where to from here integrated scoping study

  • Stages 3 and 4 beckons…..

  • Increased awareness and regional capacity

  • Project framework is applicable to other regions

  • Stakeholder involvement and ownership are the keys to success

Conclusion l.jpg
Conclusion integrated scoping study

  • Stakeholder involvement is essential in effective approaches to impact assessment and adaptation

    • Adaptation options and actions site specific and evolve over time. Science enhanced by local knowledge

    • Involvement processes take time and resources

  • Aspects of climate changesite specific but assessment methods benefit transfer

  • Further assessments and tools to come from National Climate Change Adaptation Program

  • Challenge to science community to support community processes through targeted and relevant information

Further information l.jpg
Further information integrated scoping study

  • Impacts and adaptation in Australia

    • – links to science and impacts

  • Case studies

    • Cairns/Great Barrier Reef

      • - links to science and impacts

      • report to be posted shortly

    • Planning Institute of Australia


  • ad