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3. Development of Nanophotonics Markets. Michael Heuken: Aixtron T.P. Pearsall: EPIC. Break-out Group 3. Development of a Nanophotonics Market Leaders: Heuken and Pearsall Key Questions: A. Development of a nanophotonics market in a major application? What is the application?

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3 development of nanophotonics markets l.jpg

3. Development of Nanophotonics Markets

Michael Heuken: Aixtron

T.P. Pearsall: EPIC


Break out group 3 l.jpg
Break-out Group 3

  • Development of a Nanophotonics Market

    Leaders: Heuken and Pearsall

    Key Questions:

    A. Development of a nanophotonics market in a major application?

    What is the application?

    What could be the trigger?

    Role of politics

    B. Market Volumes vs Time

    When must technology breakthroughs occur?

  • Gold Room after the Coffee Break


Definitions are important l.jpg
Definitions are important

  • What is nanophotonics

    • Is stained glass nanophotonic?

  • Markets exist for applications, not technologies.


Specific application optical disk drive l.jpg
Specific Application: Optical Disk Drive

  • Seagate Optical disk drive

    • Hard magnetic materials allow to make small magnetic domains

    • You need to heat up the area first , then flip the domain

    • To focus the energy in a smaller than the diffraction limit

    • Use a plasmonic lens structure to focus the energy

    • Trigger

      • Can’t reach the higher density of storage using soft materials

      • Manufacturing investment felt to be moderate generational upgrade

    • Political

      • On the Disk industry roadmap uncertain effect


Specific application backlighting l.jpg
Specific Application: Backlighting

  • LCD back-lighting by LEDs

    • Advantage of LEDS

      • Better chromaticity

      • Makes LCD brighter better color rendering

      • High price is an obstacle to implementation

      • Patent blockage

    • Trigger

      • Develop LED technology that gets around exisiting patents

      • Processes using other kinds of LEDs, like OLEDs

    • Politcal

      • Important IP issues


Specific application secure communications l.jpg
Specific Application: Secure Communications

  • Highly secure High Data rate Communication with quantum cryptography

    • Free-space note different wavelengths and different sources

    • Fibre guided

  • Trigger for application

    • Development of a single quantum dot emitter implement Q-bits

    • Electrically driven, of course

    • Lower cost device like LED or VCSEL

  • Political input

    • Value of 100% safe communication

    • Importance for military and commercial applications

    • How do you treat criminal communication?


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Preliminary Data from Yole Développement

  • Question One

    • Some analysis of high and low impact technologies

  • Question two

    • A projection on the time to market


Market growth and size for applications targeted by nanophotonics l.jpg
Market growth and size for applications targeted by nanophotonics

Photovoltaic

Imaging

(IR & CMOS)

Relative market growth

Size of bubble corresponds to Market size in 2009

LED

lighting

Flat panel displays

(LCD, plasma, OLED, FED)

Optical

interconnect

$10B

Data telecom

(laser, switches,

amplifier, filter)

Data storage

(laser,

holographic memory)

$1B

Instrumentation

(SNOM probes)

0.1 $B

Components

Systems


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Definitions of the different impact levels of nanophotonic nanophotonics

Impact of nanophotonic on the application field:

  • Low impact:

    • Devices with mainly incremental benefits (no real breakthroughs).

    • No major new devices are emerging because of nanophotonics.

    • Nanophotonic device sales are estimated to be less than 1 % for the considered application in 2009.

  • Medium impact:

    • Significant benefits compared to traditional technologies

    • Some new devices are emerging because of nanophotonics, but with a limited impact on the application field.

    • Nanophotonic device sales are estimated to be between 1 to 10 % for the considered application in 2009.

  • Strong impact:

    • Very important benefits compared to traditional technologies

    • New devices are developed with an important impact on the application field : market structure reorganization, booster of the application field sales.

    • Nanophotonic device sales are estimated to be higher than 10 % for the considered application in 2009.


Nanophotonic impact on global market volumes l.jpg
Nanophotonic impact on global market volumes nanophotonics

Photovoltaic

Photovoltaic

Imaging

(IR & CMOS)

Imaging

(IR & CMOS)

Relative market growth

Size of bubble corresponds to Market size in 2009

LED

lighting

$10B

Flat panel displays

(LCD, plasma, OLED, FED)

Optical

interconnect

$1B

Data telecom

(laser, switches,

amplifier, filter)

Data storage

(laser,

holographic memory)

Data storage

(laser,

holographic memory)

0.1 $B

Red = high impact

Orange = medium impact

Yellow = low impact

Instrumentation

(SNOM probes)

Instrumentation

(SNOM probes)

Component

System


Time to market l.jpg
Time-to-market nanophotonics

Schedule when most of the nanophotonics devices will move to applied R&D and first market applications.

Instrumentation/

metrology

Calendar as proposed by MONA project

Sensors

Photovoltaics

Data storage

Optical

interconnects

Datacoms/

telecoms

Displays

Imaging

Lighting

Time to market

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


Time to market12 l.jpg
Time-to-market nanophotonics

Compare with previous slide. Breakout group advanced the timing of first commercial applications. Definitions are key to usefulness of such a calendar

Instrumentation/

metrology

OCT?

Sensors

Agree

or

Disagree?

The Break-out group disagreed with the timing.

Next generation nanostrucutres for photon harvesting nanosolar, konarka , go to the web site. See Spie Digital library

Photovoltaics

Data storage

Seagate has plasmonic tip for laser assisted writing

Revenue estimate?

Datacoms/

telecoms

Optical

interconnects

Displays

In general we feel that nanophotonic technology is already on the market in most of these applications

Quantum dots for Imaging

Do functionalized nanoparticles for imaging count?

Lighting

Time to market

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


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