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Outlook for livestock other than cattle. Lee Meyer Econ. Subject Matter Training October 17 - 21, 2005. Hog Market Outlook. What has happened to Kentucky hog production? Production leveling ? 1989 – 975,000 hd. 1999 – 460,000 hd. 2002 – 370,000 hd. 2004 – 350,000 hd.

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outlook for livestock other than cattle

Outlook for livestock other than cattle

Lee Meyer

Econ. Subject Matter Training

October 17 - 21, 2005

hog market outlook
Hog Market Outlook

What has happened to Kentucky hog production?

  • Production leveling ?

1989 – 975,000 hd.

1999 – 460,000 hd.

2002 – 370,000 hd.

2004 – 350,000 hd.

  • Central Ky Hog Mkt Coop; contract growers in W. Ky.
total hogs pigs dec 1 1000 head
TOTAL HOGS & PIGS DEC. 1(1000 Head)

Alaska

Hawaii

US Total

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA/NASS

december 1 breeding hogs and pigs change 1995 2004 1000 head
DECEMBER 1 BREEDING HOGS AND PIGS CHANGE 1995 – 2004 (1000 Head)

Ky breeding herd dropped from 110,000 to 40,000 hd.

Alaska

Hawaii

US Total

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA/NASS

slide5

Commercial Pork Production

Breeding Hog Inventory

slide6

2004 production up 3%

2005 production up 1%

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA/NASS

slide7

KFBM data – 2000-2004

avg.:$38/cwt. Cost of Production

key goat enterprise issues
Key Goat Enterprise Issues:
  • Feed & Production Costs
  • Production Issues -

parasite and foot management

  • Marketing
slide12

Kentucky Goat Prices

40-60 lb. Selection 2

Graded Sales and Tel-O-Auctions

2004

Price per lb.

2005

2003

keys to goat markets
Keys to Goat Markets
  • Weekly “by-the-head” markets have not only substantially lower prices, but much more variability in “take home $$”
  • Graded sales have more consistent and somewhat higher prices
  • Graded sales seem to be catching up with the New Holland market
slide14

2004 Kentucky Goat Prices

40-60 lb. Selection # 1-2

Graded vs. Non-Graded KY Markets

Price per head

goat price summary
Goat Price Summary
  • Nationally, prices have been increasing in the past three years
  • Kentucky graded sales prices have been increasing relative to national prices;
  • Demand for all meats has been strong and is probably one of the factors behind strong prices
  • Buyers anticipate continued strong prices, perhaps better for 2006; a weak economy could cause a modest drop in prices
  • Profitability for “efficient” production systems is good
poultry market overview
Poultry Market Overview
  • Low feed costs, high prices over past two years encouraged expansion;
  • Exports strong (up 12 % in 2005) on weak dollar;
  • Avian Influenza – U.S. bans lifted, China & Thailand still out of fresh market
key future market factors
Key Future Market Factors
  • Exports to Russia and new markets;
  • Competition from Brazil – passed U.S. in 2004;
  • Dark meat value up, breast meat prices down
  • Feed costs
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